Clarkson PLC said it expects its second-half trading result to be 'substantially' ahead of the board's original expectations as majority of its business has performed very well despite a weak US dollar.

The company said this result has been driven by particularly strong performances in the dry cargo, derivatives and sale and purchase businesses.

Clarkson Plc. said it expects that its full-year results will be hit by an 8 million pound provision made against claims against it from two Russian state-owned shipping companies, but added that its performance continues to be in line with its expectations.

The company said it has continued to trade strongly since the announcement of its preliminary results on March 17, and added that it is confident of delivering further underlying growth.

On April 29 Clarkson said that as a result of the discovery of new evidence and on-going discussions with the claimants Sovcomflot and Novoship, it would make a

further provision against the claims of 8 million pounds 'without any admission of liability'.

Commodity Shipping Index Advances the Most Since at Least 1985


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aiE9Cavy3HzY&refer=home

Gone in here for a substantial buy.

I gather that ckn is more dry cargo than Braemar which deals more with wet so may perform better with iron ore etc shipping rates volatile though could be a good momentum trade if not buy and hold till the pearly gates

Yep its on a roll though Falc, so dent get left behind..

FUNDIES

Clarkson PLC

FORECASTS
2008 2009

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
04-02-09 BUY 38.94 141.04 46.00 25.07 90.78 46.00

Daniel Stewart
30-01-09 BUY 41.70 154.20 46.00 27.40 101.40 46.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-01-09 BUY 38.60 142.86 44.00 25.50 95.77 44.00

2008 2009
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 38.76 142.01 46.00 25.30 95.77 46.00
1 Month Change 2.11 10.01 1.23 -2.15 -2.89 0.61
3 Month Change 2.40 11.18 1.39 -13.81 -45.03 -2.57


GROWTH
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)

Norm. EPS 26.88% 28.79% -32.56%
DPS 11.76% 21.05% 0.00%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)

EBITDA 28.80m 41.11m 27.06m
EBIT 25.10m m m
Dividend Yield 8.22% 9.96% 9.96%
Dividend Cover 2.90x 3.09x 2.08x
PER 4.19x 3.25x 4.82x
PEG 0.16f 0.11f -0.15f
Net Asset Value PS 195.18p 486.17p 538.10p


Looks like a potential recovery candidate here.

Good day for this stock, its derd cheap and its on a roll.

from the front line i can tell you that freight rates are at rock bottom ..... personally i would not touch any shipping stock until there is a significant sign of world economic upturn

Significant, hmm

Green shoots as per the bloomberg report above will do for me at the moment cyners.

Broker note out late this afternoon..

05-Feb-09 Clarkson CKN Daniel Stewart Buy 495.50p 700.00p - Reiteration

700p Buy Target.

i don't know their logic or even if it has any value!
judging by the movement/volume today, this stock is very illiquid and therefore surely prone to wild swings.

however, i can promise you that what i wrote about ocean feight rates is 100% correct.
as an example ...... in early/mid 2008, the basic rate from china to europe was $3000 .... it is now free or near enough .... actually you still have to pay CAF and BAF, but that complicates unecessarily

Ill take mi chances with the 3 brokers above cyners, nothing personal.

that's fine .... they may have good reason, but suggest you take a look at a chart for Baltic Rates, though not sure where to find that

www.investmenttools.com should do the trick for you .... certainly there has been a sudden very sharp bounce, but i perceive no reason for it

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND
Baltic chart

i have some pix to scare you of idle vessels in S'pore which i'll try to work out howto post on here.
Also, please note that Senator Liners are shutting down ..... this is an important carrier, and i'm sure they will have a sight on the web

=======

i have pix sent to me on e-mail .... but you'll have to wait until i get to the office by the looks of it

From what I remember when the commods boom was running full tilt post credit crunch, people were scrambling to build ships but could not get the finance to do so. The market really went into a spin when operators leasing ships were hiring them out below cost(current/ recent situation) just to get some cash in before pesumably going bust!

i think Senator is the first high profile company to hang up its boots, if one may mix such a metaphor for a shipping line!

Brokers like the look of Clarckson..

Clarkson PLC

FORECASTS
2008 2009

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Panmure Gordon
04-02-09 BUY 38.94 141.04 46.00 25.07 90.78 46.00

Daniel Stewart
30-01-09 BUY 41.70 154.20 46.00 27.40 101.40 46.00

Charles Stanley Securities
15-01-09 BUY 38.60 142.86 44.00 25.50 95.77 44.00

2008 2009
Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 38.76 142.01 46.00 25.30 95.77 46.00

1 Month Change 2.11 10.01 1.23 -2.15 -2.89 0.61
3 Month Change 2.40 11.18 1.39 -13.81 -45.03 -2.57


GROWTH
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)

Norm. EPS 26.88% 28.79% -32.56%
DPS 11.76% 21.05% 0.00%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2007 (A) 2008 (E) 2009 (E)

EBITDA 28.80m 41.11m 27.06m
EBIT 25.10m m m
Dividend Yield 8.22% 9.96% 9.96%
Dividend Cover 2.90x 3.09x 2.08x
PER 4.19x 3.25x 4.82x
PEG 0.16f 0.11f -0.15f
Net Asset Value PS 195.18p 486.17p 538.10p

A forward P/E of just under 5 for 2009, far too cheap.

so throw your money in there .... i wouldn't and remember i am far closer to the real world of shipping that you

Comment From The TIMES

Stampede by banks to beat bonus crackdown

Pay rises and targets ditched as new chief stamps his mark on Unilever

Business Editor: Trichet needs to follow Britains lead (interest rates); Another day, another boss, another drive (Paul Polman, Unilevers new CEO); In defence of bonuses of contention - It is hard to see how paying forex dealers for good performance could be deemed a reward for failure or how it could encourage the sort of behaviour that led to the banking crisis

Tempus: BG Hold on; Unilever Pass; Compass Group There will be better times to buy

A Tiddler to Watch: Clarkson

Other comment: Coal price could be a bad omen for hard-hit miners

Smaller Companies: YouGov finds a 50% share drop