The takeover will have to beat 4, thats 20+% up on the present price, worth a punt

This share still trades about 7% below net asset value of 191p, which is an attractive valuation considering the majority of UK-listed house-builders are rated on premiums to book value. The company's share price is backed up by improving operational performance. In a company update a month ago the company chairman revealed that although the housing market in the North of England remains relatively challenging, weekly sales rates have been consistently in line with expectations and compared with the same periosd last year , total sales.comprising reservations, contracted and completed homes are up by 63%. There have also been three land transactions and also strong interest by housebuilders in further sites that the company hopes to bring to market in the second half of the financial year ending June 2013. So with good news flow in the next few weeks, Gleesons shares should continue to run up ahead of what are likely to be upbeat first half results in late Feb.
The shares should trade at a premium to book value before long.

Liberum note:
"Past episodes of slowing GDP growth suggest UK house prices could fall by 3% in 2017. Using this as our central case drives EPS cuts of around 18%, and target price cuts of around 20%. Valuations across the sector are much more compelling after a 34% fall in the shares, especially with dividends mainly intact. We limit our enthusiasm to three high conviction stocks: Bellway (BUY), Berkeley (up from HOLD to BUY) and Gleeson (BUY)."