EWRobson
- 23 Oct 2004 20:18
- 600 of 706
Hello folk. Back for a visit. Sold out about a month ago, despite the fact that I had been arguing the case on this thread for EPO. Basically, felt the call to put the money into oils: PCI, SEY and, particularly PET. Given that EPO looked a boom or bust gamble, better bet on PET even though its a bet on Iraq and a Dublin minnow. Still, know its wise to keep an eye on EPO.
The comparison with the software and computer services market is quite revealing. I think it is a fair conclusion that the early part of the EPO fall, shortly after many of us had bought in following the Shares recommendation, was just a general fall in the market. That was clearly overdone because there is so much public sector business around and the overall spend on IT continues to rise. Interesting companies are: Logica/CMG (LOG, computer services) which, after falling into losses is back in profit at interims); Sage (SGE, software)which is another market leader and which has been really steady as it goes trading-wise and has just moved with market sentiment. With these companies, the market has just said that they were over-sold and still have decent profits. EPO, of course, would recover with the index if there was any decent news at all. Presumably, any information given to Savoy should be given to the market (but would RC observe that?) and EPO can hardly be asking them for more money, so it is likely to be about being sold a pup (not big enough to be called a dog!).
Re the trading, generally pretty low key and seems to have been sells at around 0.9p and buys around 1.05 (the 1.04 sell must be a buy) although the spread quoted has not been altered. Volume of 7.5M on Thursday (1.4% of equity) but still only 70K which is not big enough for an institution. So EPO is still in the 'keep a watching eye' category and hope I can make some money on the oils in the meantime.
Good luck, all - Eric
dibbles
- 24 Oct 2004 22:13
- 601 of 706
EWROBSON
i have been quoted 1p to buy recently depending on quantity so i imagine a few
of the sells were actually buys.
Sharemess
- 26 Oct 2004 14:02
- 602 of 706
ssanebs - any news from the meeting ?
ssanebs
- 26 Oct 2004 14:08
- 603 of 706
he did not turn up friday, i was told wednesday..... lets see
Sharemess
- 26 Oct 2004 14:46
- 604 of 706
Thanks ssanebs
Do you mean RC broke an appointment - or that your contact didn't turn up to tell you what had happened ?
ssanebs
- 28 Oct 2004 11:13
- 605 of 706
ok. RC did go to see savoy. just spoke to my guy who has said that everything was positive and there was no cash position problem as rumoured, but he would say no more as he did not want to be as an insider. They are in a closed period so obviously he could not say much. so its wait until the end of the year for news.
dibbles
- 28 Oct 2004 17:10
- 606 of 706
Thanks for that ssanebs,
closed period or not they must be concerned about falling sp.
Every time i think it won't go any lower it proves how stupid i am.
Don't suppose anyone mentioned when wanadoo goes live?
dibbles
- 29 Oct 2004 15:49
- 607 of 706
Contract news at last.....
will keep holding now...
EWRobson
- 29 Oct 2004 18:14
- 608 of 706
Have all the old regulars deserted this column! Here we have an annoucement of a contract delivery with some real money involved, not a lot but real, and only dibbles (no offence, only only in the sense of the only one!) comments. Price quite nicely up but few buys and lots and lots of sells from those who are grabbing their money and making for the exit. Could be they have left orders to sell at a price with their brokers. One buyer of 2M shares. But credit where credit is due: RC said there would be two deliveries, plus Wanadoo going live (I seem to recall - anyone client know if it is oeprational), in October and he has made a delivery. Be thankful for small blessings. But not to be too excited unless and until we see the follow through.
Eric
EWRobson
- 29 Oct 2004 18:58
- 610 of 706
Dynamite
Well done! Solves the problem, well it does up to a point. With a number of buys around the 1.3p mark and loads of sells at 1.09p and 1.1p, the last thing you would expect would be that those sells were buys. However, if one was a sell then all must have been sells. So why would they quote an offer price of 1.25 rising to 1.4p if they were prepared to sell at 1.1p? They must have held surplus stock to be prepared to sell at that level. It will be interesting to see press comment and action on Monday. Mind, the spread in EPO hasn't meant much for a long time.
Eric
dibbles
- 29 Oct 2004 21:12
- 611 of 706
As i see it the biggest fear recently was epo running out of cash.
With the recent funds raised according to trading update, wanadoo hopefully
going live soon,also Hong Kong and now some proof that deals to come aren't
a figment of RC,s imagination,some momentum should gather now hopefully.
Also don't forget update stated 3 customers being integrated now expected to
go live in october so hopefully more news to come short term....
dibbles
- 29 Oct 2004 21:15
- 612 of 706
Notice how many times i said hopefully there...
thats what this share does to you...
ssanebs
- 01 Nov 2004 08:18
- 613 of 706
this is not one of the blue chip deals promised by RC. Note that they already hold 11m shares in epo, so did they sign the deal to help epo out of the cash problem? appears so. the 6,000 p/m is ridiculous. Until he announces anyone of the promised blue chip deals this stock will not recover. Furthermore, i spoke to Bridgewell who said that they had not even done a buisness model on epo or planned a roadshow which RC told a room full of investors, or have you forgotten you said that Mr.C?
jonny wilkinson
- 01 Nov 2004 13:22
- 614 of 706
ssanebs - 01 Nov'04 - 08:18 - 612 of 612
Well said, i think one of EPO's problems is CEO, until he is replaced then EPO share price will remain in the doldrums. I'm very suspicious of fridays announcement including timing, remember its a related party transaction, ie TSpeak holding 11m shares with options. Its also important to note shares are registered in Peter Gregorys name as opposed to TSpeak based on info filed at companies house.
We can also be certain once EPO have the sniff of a deal its announced, remember this latest one does not go live until Feb 2005 ( still 4 months away )
Re Bridgewell.
Milan Radia is director of equity research at Bridgewell, in fact one of the most respected guys in tech sector, according to Cunningham he told shareholders a research note was due July past, why the delay, speak to Milan, he is not even contemplating writing a note at present, WHY DOES RC CONTINUE TO MISLEAD SHAREHOLDERS by telling them a note was to be published when to date the author is in denial.
Finally who is the contact within Savoy dealing with EPO, is it Paul Hever or Trevor Sumption, remember this holding is discretionary fund managed on behalf of investors, who certainly can not be very happy with performance to date
EWRobson
- 01 Nov 2004 18:45
- 615 of 706
My reading of the note is, on balance negative, even before johnny's strictures. At the interims, EPO stated that two new systems were scheduled for delivery on October and Wanadoo was to go live, having been delivered in May. The annoucement of one only implies that the other two have not yet happened. It may be that everything is awaiting the new systems scheduled for delivery in March but the company hardly has enough cash to go beyond that date. I did argue the corner for EPO a couple of months ago but the balance is going against them in my view.
Eric
ssanebs
- 02 Nov 2004 08:31
- 616 of 706
EWRobson
yes you are right that they do not have the cash but i know that the cash position is about to be increased, i cannot tell you how, but they will not be asking us. This will leave them with enough cash to complete these deals and if they dont this time then that will spell the end of EPO for good and RC!
jdubb
- 02 Nov 2004 13:20
- 617 of 706
ssanebs
Hope you are right with your info mate. I have no reason to doubt you as most things youve alluded to have happened in the past. I also know you like me, are still a substancial holder of this share- bought at a much higher price aswell! i hope they make it.
EWRobson
- 02 Nov 2004 14:41
- 618 of 706
ssanebs
That is the first positive news about EPO in living memory, i.e. if you have only been alive, say, for six months! Bit concerned that you and jdubb, our column's author, were left alone on the sinking ship. So have just gone back in on a low key basis - it makes you watch events much more closely. So, others say, what is positive about the news? Somebody is prepared to lend EPO cash! They must have done some due diligence and that has told them that it is not all over yet. If it is not all over, then they could come out at the other end of the tunnel. If they do that, the new systems must be working and, lo and behold, their significant USPs, e.g. banking network, Hong Kong project, data base investment, are factored back into the price which then recovers to the levels of only a year ago! Eureka, that's worth a modest stake!
Eric
jdubb
- 02 Nov 2004 16:50
- 619 of 706
EWR
I like you eric, you bring a great deal of realism to the party, not to mention your well thought out posts over the last few months. Thx and welcome to the rollercoaster again!!