.

Fly another flag then ....... problem solved.

oops i was at rbs earlier this mornig
and i dont mean the atm
panic spreading
gla

cant afford anymore losses if you catch my meaning

http://en.mercopress.com/2011/08/22/falklands-government-readies-for-a-decision-on-a-new-deep-sea-port

If anyone is interested this is the Merchant Securities write up from 1st of Sept.

http://www.mediafire.com/?5ghvmh7bkbqwiqx

.

Would that be this post put up four days ago by Marky in his thread (with a link that doesn't take me to 'Proselene's shared files!)
markymar - 01 Sep 2011 17:38 - 5182 of 5190

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/32622/rockhopper-explorations-sea-lion-estimates-are-conservative-says-merchant-securities--32622.html

Rockhopper Explorations Sea Lion estimates are conservative, says Merchant Securities
12:48 pm by Jamie Ashcroft

Rockhopper Explorations (LON:RKH) estimate that the Sea Lion oil discovery contains 325 million barrels of recoverable oil is conservative according to Merchant Securities analyst Brendan Long, who reckons the shares are worth 10.70 each.The analysts punchy valuation, which implies that Rockhopper is worth about five times more than its current market value (today it trades at 214p a share), follows last months upgraded resource estimate.

The pivotal report was based on revised seismic and appraisal drilling results. Apparently the upgrade settles the debate on the discoverys commerciality, as far as Rockhopper is concerned.

Rockhopper, on August 15, revealed that by its own estimate - based on the latest 3D seismic data and its recent drilling success - the Sea Lion oil discovery contains between 608 million and 1.279 billion barrels of in-place oil. It believes that it can achieve recovery rates between 30 and 40 per cent, therefore it estimates that the Sea Lion contains around 325 434 million barrels of recoverable oil.

A flow test a few weeks earlier also proved that the Sea Lion could produce oil at commercial rates, achieving a stabilised rate of 5,508 barrels of oil per day.

According to Merchant Securities Brendan Long the recent wave of positive news flow, particularly the most recent seismic and drilling results, have greatly reduced the investment risks related to the primary Sea Lion discovery known as the Main Sea Lion Fan Complex.

Long also points out that, because of the recent stock market sell-off, Rockhopper shares do not fully credit the positive developments.

Rockhopper's positive announcements have been muffled by the coincident flare-up of stresses in the financial markets (late July and early August), leaving scope for further near-term stock appreciation, Long said.

The two sand bodies that comprise the Main Fan Complex appear to be high quality and straightforward reservoirs. We consider that the two sands provide good visibility relative to other oil & gas assets at similar early stages of appraisal, Long added.

Speaking with Proactive Investors, Long said: Rockhopper is the one company that has successfully found oil in the Falklands. It is a bird in the hand, and it is dirt cheap.

Aside from this potentially lucrative bird-in-the-hand, in his note to clients, Long also stressed that Rockhoppers acreage still contains low cost exploration upside and these exploration targets continue to be enhanced by the appraisal of the Sea Lion.

Three prospects - B15, Casper and Kermit - are directly below the Main Fan Complex and testing them will simply involve drilling appraisal and development wells for the Main Fan Complex a few hundred meters deeper, the analyst said.

We think that the prospectivity of B15 has been considerably improved by the most recent seismic and drilling results.

Brendan Longs assertion that the Sea Lion estimate is conservative is based a number of factors.

First he points out that the most recent competent persons report, completed last summer by RPS Energy, estimated that the Sea Lion spanned an area of 27 square kilometres, whereas Rockhopper now believes the mid-case area covers 68 square kilometres a 150 per cent increase from the RPS estimate.

According to Long the data used in the 2010 RPS report that the mid-case estimate of oil-in-place would be around 674 million barrels. Using the 674Mb as a starting point and increasing it by 150 per cent gives 1,685 million barrels of oil in place, he explained.

This is substantially higher than Rockhopper's current mid case estimate of oil in place of 1,086 million barrels.

We have reviewed actual well data and compared it to the estimates used in the June 2010 RPS report and have found that actual data has been in line with or exceeded the expectations of RPS (water saturation, formation volume factor, net pay and porosity).

The week ahead September 5, 2011: results, meetings and trading updates
At the AGM on Tuesday 6th Sept -

Rockhopper shareholders will be happy with repeated confirmation of the group's oil discovery off the Falkland Islands. However, they may want to keep an eye on executive remuneration and ask questions about the political situation now that Brazil has stopped Falklands boats docking in solidarity with Argentina's claims on the islands.

No avesc.

The post you copied below takes you to a media article where someone has read the Merchant Securities note and then written down their opinion of it.

The link I posted actually gives the note in PDF form, so you can read it and view it yourself..............

LOL............. :) Why have a second hand write up, when you can read the actual thing.



avsec - 04 Sep 2011 16:12 - 608 of 609

Would that be this post put up four days ago by Marky in his thread (with a link that doesn't take me to 'Proselene's shared files!)

markymar - 01 Sep 2011 17:38 - 5182 of 5190

Post from III


Thank you to all for AGM feedback especially Smicervlad; excellent post.

What was particularly interesting was the willingness of the BOD to engage with PI's after the formal meeting. I had some really open discussions with several board members and gleaned the following which may not of have been mention elsewhere;

1. When asked the question, do you share your seismic results with Des the answer was no but because of our farm-in they are obliged to share results with us.

2. When asked is there a deal to be struck with Des the answer was "what do they have to trade"?

3.When asked about Johnson the answer was, Johnson is the elephant in the Territory. We need to fully appraise Sealion and raise new finance to do justice to properly exploring and appraising such a large field.

4. When asked about Johnson and condensates (to answers Oilbrat's question) the answer was they would be very surprised if they failed to discover significant condensates within the Johnson field.

5.When asked, will you self develop or farm-in or sell Sealion the answers was " it is a risk reward judgement, we exclude nothing but the driving consideration is what gives the best risk reward return to shareholders.

6. When asked if Sealion was likely to be the biggest field within the RKH licenses the answer was, maybe the largest fan play but with what they know now there could easily be even larger fields.

7. Asked what was going to be said at the Capital Markets day on the 16th that was not reported at the AGM, the answer was more detailed financial info but that they expected it all to quite quickly feed back through the BB's.

In answer to the question do you follow what is written on the BB's the answer was "you bet" and that some of the "oilies" were uncannily spot on with their analysis. Sometimes posts were so interesting in fact that they generated serious discussed among Board Directors.

A good, well balanced and professional BOD in my opinion and as open as it was possible to be without infringing their fiduciary duties.

day123

Another post from the AGM :


A different chat with Peter Dixon

---------------------------------------------------------------

Evenin' all,

I know the AGM info'/summaries be done to death, but I did state last night that I would post a summary of my conversation with him.

I made no notes, so going from memory. Xeno' was there, so if I post something which is inaccurate please post. Here goes;

Firstly the purpose for approaching PD-C was the lack of 'forward financing' information provided in the presentation, we're aware from a recent broker note, and now page 33 of the AGM presentation that there was only circa $170million post 14/10-6. We now also note that the appraisals cost circa $30million each.

If we assume 7,8 and 9 to cost $90million, circa $15million in the escrow for 'demob' etc , a years admin @ $10million, there's less than $60million, so potentially one drill left, need to fund possible DES acreage obligations

I tried to 'fish' some info';

Firstly consider the following after David McManus suggested that the II's felt/considered that sufficient appraisals had been/were being done, and that ARG are/may be having difficulties raising finance.

Q. Would RKH be taking a break from drilling, as ARG and DES are suggesting that they intend to drill Q4 2011/Q1 2012.

A. The drill decisions (post 14/10-9) were being currently debated, often lively, and the decision had not yet been reached, BoD discussing post AGM.


Q. When would we hear of drilling intention/target post 14/10-9?

A. Information relating to this will be made through the appropriate channels before the end of September.


Q. Why was the '3 drill commitment' requirement not made on spud of 14/10-7?

A. The drill contract was now a '2 drill commitment'. The contract is with DES, and it would have been their responsibility to provide information. PD-C appeared surprised that this info was not in the public domain.


Q. Would they consider a 'joint drill' on the block boundary with either DES/RKH?

A. Would consider, and meet with DES monthly.


Q. Being a PI, obviously, and probably unrealistic a preference for no dilution, through further placement,so what's going to happen?

A. Finance is an issue;

1. with some sectors continuing to believe that 'RKH' is a co' being run by 'two men in a pub'.

2. RKH have not been 'chasing' anybody, so as not to look 'desperate (my words), but it is time for 'me and Sam to start knocking on doors'.

3. Unlikely (highly) to get full funding for the development of SL, it was apparent that corporate financiers preferred the security of a major involved, and finance was probably only available on this basis.

4. Positive of 'new acceptable funding' process was for the farm-in partner to refund to the explorer the exploration/appraisal costs of the asset, but negative was the loss of control over the asset., lose % of SL and get an explor'/apprsl refund of say $250million, or say 8 exploration wells!!

5. Farm-in Co', or project partner have preferred lenders, so the Singaporeans would insist on their favoured bank/lender. flexibility lost here.

6. There will be no opportunity for PI's i.e. any palcing RI would be II's only.


Q. Did the Singaporeans purchase 3% before or after you visited the 3 ship yards?

A. (the fibber), as he looks confused ''Oh I'm not sure on that'.

He was enthusiastic throughout, really helpful, quite happy to answer PI queries. He'd been in a quandary as to what to put in his presentation, and was interested in PI thoughts.

WE NEED A FARMER - or the sp will take a hit, in any gossip/news vacuum on this subject, but if Giles arrive with a great deal, then it's funny figures time.

C'mon the BoD getting knocking those doors.

Ohtaxes - where's the farmer??????????????

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-14925620


15 September 2011 Last updated at 01:05 GMT


Rockhopper optimism on Falklands oil development

A British company searching for oil off the Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic says it has made further significant finds.

The company, Rockhopper Exploration, said it expected to start pumping oil by 2016.

It said it would need $2bn (1.3bn) to develop the field.

The search for oil off the Falklands has angered Argentina, which claims sovereignty over the islands it calls Las Malvinas.

On Wednesday Rockhopper said it had found further oil in its Sea Lion prospect, where it announced substantial quantities in March.

The company estimates there are 350m barrels of recoverable oil in the field it has been exploring - enough to turn the Falklands into a significant oil production centre.

It said it expected production to peak at about 120,000 barrels per day in 2018.

It has not said how it plans to fund development, though analysts say partnership with another oil company is a possibility.

'Arrogant'

Correspondents say the latest announcement is likely to provoke controversy in Argentina, which invaded the Falklands in 1982 before being defeated by Britain in a short war.

It has never given up its claim to the islands, and stepped up its affirmations of sovereignty when oil exploration began.

Last year Argentina said ships sailing from its ports to the Falklands would need a special permit, potentially complicating any oil development.

In June Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner called British Prime Minister David Cameron "arrogant" for refusing to negotiate on the Falklands.

Most Falkland islanders want to retain British sovereignty and Mr Cameron has said the issue is non-negotiable.

Word is that not very good news is on its way from the latest drill result. Early TD and not a lot found is said to be the case.

The share price fall today also suggests the rumour is true, we shall find out tomorrow or before too long.

As ever, take all rumours with a large pinch of salt.

And there is the bad news.

All water wet.

Sea Lion, Casper and Kermit, all water wet on this well, no oil.

What " a piece of CACA " you are
when you are not holding.........not very good news
............All water wet.


when holding .........buyers starting to move back into the market.
.......... The potential 350MMBO proven by Autumn from just Sea Lion is 7.20 per share.


The latest drilling was intended to find out ..... the increased gross rock volume above the oil water contact area within Sea Lion.
Share price now at best of the day +11.75p

Pro said:
The share price fall today also suggests the rumour is true, we shall find out tomorrow or before too long.

SP up 8%! 185 and rising still!

Buck up Pro!

avsec, the share price is down from recent 230p/250p levels so a lot of the poor result was already in the price.

What this has done now is moved a lot of risk for the P50 over to the next well.

We all knew that size was being held back, they have now used what they had in reserve to offset the poor result.

BUT, if the next well fails there will be a circa 30% reduction to P50 median size.

So the next well has now moved into being a high risk one with a lot on the line with its result, if its good, ok, if its not good then a big size downgrade is coming.

Silence is Golden..............

It remains me of .............. "Tail between the legs"

Hit him hard when you are right " I would say

never mind if is "dead like a DODO" it deserve all the punisment he gets


"Tail between the legs"
describes the body language of a dog that has been defeated in an encounter with a stonger dog

SP at 188.25p + 18.50p and rising do not forget

edit - silence is golden, it took me too long to post, he has open the pick since with more rubish

Looks like the idiot MasterRSI is now back after being banned a few times as now "machoman",

Now added to the squelched list, again, under their new name.

Nobody wants you .......... get a life

Big mouth and no trousers, allways running with excuses and ...........squelch

192p +22.50p

The list that had the "balls" to let you know laudly .....
hilary, Master RSI, zscrooge, Balerboy, ptholden, blackdown, ravey davy gravy, cielo, markymar, halifax, machoman

and many more that are saying it in a low voice

Interesting period of time now. They have to commit to another well before they spud the next one, if the OG rig contract is to be extended.

If no further commitment comes then DES and ARG should take a bashing as any drilling by them would then have to wait for the LV rig after BOR/FOGL are done with it, perhaps Autumn 2012 by the time FOGL are finished with it, pending any flow testing etc... or further drills.

......Ocean Guardian drilling rig

The Company is in discussions with Diamond Offshore, owners of the Ocean Guardian drilling rig, with regards to the assignment of a further drilling slot to which the Company would be required to commit prior to the spudding of well 14/10-9.