Right I havent beleived in investing directly in an oil company untill today and in the last few months have been investing in OIL SERVICE companys Hamworthy and Corac, you know the picks and shovels tale.

Anyway after doing a lot of research I really feel that SOCO INTERNATIONAL SIA as been left behind in the mass bull market on oil companies.

Forget, Burren, Regal, Dana and the rest in my opinion this is the one to be on.

So.....why buy Soco now?

Four inter-related reasons:

1) Newsflow is now very much in sight on several fronts. None of it has yet emerged though, so analysts have yet to revisit their old views and recommendations. There was, and indeed remains, a chance to get in before serious interest picks up again.

2) There is, IMO, a decent chance of some very large price rises within the next 6 months, accompanied by increased downside protection. Once newsflow starts, the shares will come back onto institutional radar screens - you can wait for it to emerge, or you can speculate now at what I think will prove to be a lower price -perhaps much lower!

3) The market thinks there is nothing happening and has gone to sleep on the prospects. You can see this in the broadly sideways drift and very low volumes on most days [until this week]. They are wrong. Yemen and perhaps Mongolia should provide some near-term good news.

4) The time to buy is when no-one else seems very interested.

And heres the last results from the company......................

Soco International PLC
02 September 2004

SOCO International plc

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2004

SOCO is an international oil and gas exploration and production company,
headquartered in London. The Company has interests in Vietnam, Mongolia, Yemen,
Libya, Tunisia and Thailand, with production operations in Yemen, Tunisia and
Mongolia. SOCO today announces interim results for the half year ended 30 June
2004.

HIGHLIGHTS

Operating profit of 4.1 million (2003: 4.2 million)

Net profit of 2.0 million (2003: 2.5 million)

Earnings per share of 2.9p (2003: 3.6p)

Cash balance of 26.7 million at half year end

Finalised the sale of an interest in ODEX creating a consortium of SOCO
(34%), Oilinvest (46%) and Gazprombank (20%) in the special purpose
entity to progress initiatives in Libya and other countries

Continued reinterpretation of existing 3D seismic and acquisition of 650
sq km of new 3D seismic in Vietnam prior to commencement of drilling in
Q1 2005

3D seismic programme completed in Mongolia with two wells drilled, both
apparent discoveries, and a third well spudded

First ever deviated Basement well drilling in East Shabwa in Yemen



Ed Story, President and Chief Executive of SOCO, said:

'Following an extended period of quiet preparation, the release of interim
results coincides with the commencement of a very active drilling programme for
SOCO, one that I believe has company transforming potential'

2 September 2004

ENQUIRIES:
SOCO International plc Tel: 020 7457 2020 (today)ENDS.

This could really be a craking stock and is worth getting in at these lowly price figures.

Please DYOR

cheers GF.

Evolution note:
"The surprise failure of the TGD E appraisal in Vietnam is likely to leave the company with few options to drive the share price in the near future. The appraisal well although having found hydrocarbons in September has failed to flow oil and gas insufficient quantities to be commercial due a lack of reservoir pressure. More analysis will be done on the area however at this stage we see it prudent to take out the value of the project from our valuation. Our TP is now 353p which is the companys Core Value and is some 23% below last nights close. At this stage we would only buy the shares if the Congo exploration value were in for free. This is a bitter blow for the company coming on the back of what has been a prolonged drilling and appraisal of the structure. The initial well in Congo has also disappointed with a second well due to complete within twenty days."

This is a strong sell... more bad news on the way.

Wait till Soco's KingangaNyanya-1 well results which is deemed to be 'high risk' comes out within weeks. If it is a duster, Soco's sp will be clearly below 300p.

Bulls of the speculative oil and gas exploration sector had their confidence shattered by a disappointing update from Soco International on its Vietnam prospects. Soco was sold down 348.8p and closed 85.3p or 18.8 per cent lower at 369.7p after announcing that its TGD-2X appraisal well on the 16-1 licence offshore Vietnam has been plugged and abandoned.

The company had previously said that the well, which had been flagged as very low risk, had encountered hydrocarbons. Broker Oriel Securities downgraded Soco to reduce from hold, saying that the group's Kinganga-Nyanya-1 well looks high risk and needs to be successful to support the current share price.

It is still dropping.

Soco's KingangaNyanya-1 well results are out now and sp down to 290p.

Could be the time to buy.

Or that could be the left hand side of a head & shoulders forming?

Not sure about that H.

Me niether, so worth a short term trade, imo, but not a hold.

JPM upgrade.
Overweight from Neutral Target price 400p.

That explains it thanks porky.

JPMorgan Cazenove upgrades Soco International (SIA.LN) to overweight from neutral, saying the recent share price selloff has left the risk/reward ratio at much more attractive levels. "We believe Soco is one of the more attractive M&A candidates in the European E&P space, given its focused portfolio (essentially Vietnam), rising production profile, attractive valuation and materiality." Says following the results of the TGD well, Soco's intrinsic value is much better defined, thus facilitating any valuation discussions in the event of a bid. Adds at the current share price, exploration upside is an attractive free option. Has a 400p price target.

So based on current assets, SIA is fairly valued. Future exploration would increase the value. A bid would push the sp up. Not a great recommendation yet, imo.

Chance of a bid Harry..?

No idea. According to Panmure Gordon, the assets of SIA are valued at approx 341p per share. Any increase in the sp is speculative value of exploration.

Opened a long in SIA SOCO, gap on chart to 430p and needs filling. Fundies look pretty solid. No extra tax here.


Sp moved above its 200 day MA aswell bullish.

SIA SOCO INTL looks to have very bullish TA going for it. see chart below. Gap to be filled and fundies look pretty solid.

Citi group with a target SP of 441p.

Citigroup starts Soco International PLC with buy rating; price target

of 441P