I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Comment from Merrill Lynch:
"Given Man’s recent share price performance, we suspect that some will tend to try and read too much into this. However, Mr Hayes has always struck us as an effective steward of Man’s infrastructure, accounting and balance sheet. We see Man’s current issues as being a combination of sluggish demand industry-wide and soft AHL. It is hard to lay either of these at Mr Hayes’ door. We would also point out the obvious, that if there were any bad news lurking which has caused this move, the company would have had to disclose it. Instead, Man has reiterated that the next update will be on the 24th July, as previously planned.

Mr Sorrell is, judging from our encounters with him, an extremely knowledgeable and effective hedge fund business person. Man’s recently announced acquisition of FRM, which he was heavily involved in, seems a shrewd deal. We think there is nothing about Man which a period of good AHL performance would not fix. That said, we suspect that Mr. Sorrell, as a relative outsider, will be able to look at the company’s overall cost structure with a fresh pair of eyes. Also, Mr. Hayes always struck us as perhaps keener on Man having an investment bank-like balance sheet than we would have been. Maybe aspects of the balance sheet, in particular its layers of bank-like capital, will also be looked at. Overall, though, we would see this as simply a natural evolution of Man’s management team."

Man was evicted from the FTSE100 on 7th june and replaced by Babcock.

Shows the state of Western Economies when a once-major World Financial is replaced in a list by a purveyor of cisterns . . .
feeling well-Flushed no doubt!

Odd that the LSE link (earlier) still shows MAN - although it omits the interesting info as to any Company's Position in the League...

.

Credit Suisse note:
"Tough Q2 drives down forecasts: The market environment during Q212 has been particularly challenging with significant volatility across markets unhelpful for AHL and flagship GLG funds seeing weaker performance following a decent Q112. We estimate Q212 neg perf impact on AuM of $2.3bn. We forecast Q212 net flows (-$1.7bn) vs. Q112 (-$1bn) driven by subdued investor appetite across the industry particularly during May as confirmed by industry flow data but also the weaker investment performance. We estimate a further de-gear in guaranteed products of c$2bn and neg FX impact of $1.2bn during Q212. Overall we forecast an AuM decline of c12% during Q212 from $59bn to $51.8bn. Our FY12/FY13 EPS (ex FRM) are lowered by 42%/48% to 7.2c/9.4c respectively, and we are c35%/c40% below consensus for FY12/FY13 respectively. We reduce our sum of the parts TP to 88p from 130p and recommendation from OP to NT, reflecting medium term opportunities offset by near term consensus earnings risk and valuation discount to the sector, based on FY13 PE disappearing.
Medium term opportunities but near term markets will dictate: We believe Man Group's diverse product suite and strong distribution platform offer medium term opportunities. However in the near term, we believe market conditions are not conducive for significant asset growth and weakness in AHL pushes out further the timing for material performance fees and new fund launches. Against this backdrop we believe management may re-assess the cost structure in the business but timing is uncertain."

Below 70p now

A share disaster..




50p is my opinion.

Ex-divi 25th July '12 (9.5¢)

Thanks HARRYCAT - I did not know that. When is payment date please

Payable 4th Sept '12.

Note from JPM Cazenove:
"AHL’s investment performance in Q2 has again been disappointing, requiring us to further reduce our earnings estimates. The impact on estimates has been compounded by expected de-gearing of Guaranteed products (which earn high revenue margins) and from reduced net flow expectations in future periods to reflect recent performance. Our EPS estimate for the current year falls to 5c from 9c. While in percentage terms the decline is clearly material, in large part this reflects just the decline in absolute levels of profitability, with the reduction in the current year equivalent to approximately $80m. That said, we have also now reduced our dividend expectations for 2013E to reflect much lower expected income. Once again it appears that earnings expectations have reduced to fully match the lower share price, leaving the stock no cheaper than it was at considerably higher levels. AHL (as measured by Man AHL Diversified) fell by 2.5% in the quarter. It is also around 2% lower than our last mark-to-market exercise. This has implications for immediate revenues from the lower NAV base; for expected performance fees; for de-gearing of guaranteed products; and also for expected future flows.
In percentage terms the downgrades are material, but this really is no more than a reflection of the low level of expected profits. Our management EPS estimate for the current year falls by 39%, or 3c per share. Our price target reduces to 45p accordingly. We have also reduced our 2013E dividend per share to 6c from 22c. Ironically, although the company has made clear its dividend policy, the lack of clarity to estimates means that there is still no certainty on future payments.
On 7 Jan 2011 at 311p the estimated one year forward PER was 13x and now at 71p it is 15x. There is no reason to believe Man is “cheap” despite the share price decline, we believe."

Press today all negative I believe 50p will find the bottom.

HARRYCAT, do you hold, buy or already short?

I hold stock for the divi, but showing a loss on the purchase. Am intending to buy more when the sp starts to rise, but now is not yet the time, imo.

Singer note out today:
"We are cutting our estimates on Man Group to reflect the poor performance from AHL in what continue to be volatile and challenging markets for managed futures. This is compounded by further de-gearing of guaranteed products which earn high margins and lower flow expectations in the light of the current environment. We reduced FY’12E EPS by 50% to 7.0cents. The reduction to FY’13E EPS is 59% to 10.1cents, given the further delay of a return to performance fee highs. The share performance has largely reflected the level of downgrades over the past few months.
However, given an increasing proportion of non-cash items included in EPS, we note that free cash flow per share is now twice forecast earnings and we base our dividend forecasts off this measure going forward whereas consensus is probably more focused on reported earnings. Given the high yield, despite a significant reduction to our target price, the potential total return leads us to maintain a BUY rating but we believe that more severe cost cutting measures are required to reduce the level of earnings volatility."

Down 7% it keeps on falling each day .

Numis were right .

40-50p sounds right to me.

Maybe the bottom has been reached?

BARCAP downgrade today.

ACQUISITION OF FRM HOLDINGS LIMITED BY MAN GROUP

17 July, 2012 (London) - Further to the announcement dated 21 May 2012, Man Group plc, has today completed its acquisition of FRM Holdings Limited.