Right I havent beleived in investing directly in an oil company untill today and in the last few months have been investing in OIL SERVICE companys Hamworthy and Corac, you know the picks and shovels tale.

Anyway after doing a lot of research I really feel that SOCO INTERNATIONAL SIA as been left behind in the mass bull market on oil companies.

Forget, Burren, Regal, Dana and the rest in my opinion this is the one to be on.

So.....why buy Soco now?

Four inter-related reasons:

1) Newsflow is now very much in sight on several fronts. None of it has yet emerged though, so analysts have yet to revisit their old views and recommendations. There was, and indeed remains, a chance to get in before serious interest picks up again.

2) There is, IMO, a decent chance of some very large price rises within the next 6 months, accompanied by increased downside protection. Once newsflow starts, the shares will come back onto institutional radar screens - you can wait for it to emerge, or you can speculate now at what I think will prove to be a lower price -perhaps much lower!

3) The market thinks there is nothing happening and has gone to sleep on the prospects. You can see this in the broadly sideways drift and very low volumes on most days [until this week]. They are wrong. Yemen and perhaps Mongolia should provide some near-term good news.

4) The time to buy is when no-one else seems very interested.

And heres the last results from the company......................

Soco International PLC
02 September 2004

SOCO International plc

Interim Results for the six months ended 30 June 2004

SOCO is an international oil and gas exploration and production company,
headquartered in London. The Company has interests in Vietnam, Mongolia, Yemen,
Libya, Tunisia and Thailand, with production operations in Yemen, Tunisia and
Mongolia. SOCO today announces interim results for the half year ended 30 June
2004.

HIGHLIGHTS

Operating profit of 4.1 million (2003: 4.2 million)

Net profit of 2.0 million (2003: 2.5 million)

Earnings per share of 2.9p (2003: 3.6p)

Cash balance of 26.7 million at half year end

Finalised the sale of an interest in ODEX creating a consortium of SOCO
(34%), Oilinvest (46%) and Gazprombank (20%) in the special purpose
entity to progress initiatives in Libya and other countries

Continued reinterpretation of existing 3D seismic and acquisition of 650
sq km of new 3D seismic in Vietnam prior to commencement of drilling in
Q1 2005

3D seismic programme completed in Mongolia with two wells drilled, both
apparent discoveries, and a third well spudded

First ever deviated Basement well drilling in East Shabwa in Yemen



Ed Story, President and Chief Executive of SOCO, said:

'Following an extended period of quiet preparation, the release of interim
results coincides with the commencement of a very active drilling programme for
SOCO, one that I believe has company transforming potential'

2 September 2004

ENQUIRIES:
SOCO International plc Tel: 020 7457 2020 (today)ENDS.

This could really be a craking stock and is worth getting in at these lowly price figures.

Please DYOR

cheers GF.

Me niether, so worth a short term trade, imo, but not a hold.

JPM upgrade.
Overweight from Neutral Target price 400p.

That explains it thanks porky.

JPMorgan Cazenove upgrades Soco International (SIA.LN) to overweight from neutral, saying the recent share price selloff has left the risk/reward ratio at much more attractive levels. "We believe Soco is one of the more attractive M&A candidates in the European E&P space, given its focused portfolio (essentially Vietnam), rising production profile, attractive valuation and materiality." Says following the results of the TGD well, Soco's intrinsic value is much better defined, thus facilitating any valuation discussions in the event of a bid. Adds at the current share price, exploration upside is an attractive free option. Has a 400p price target.

So based on current assets, SIA is fairly valued. Future exploration would increase the value. A bid would push the sp up. Not a great recommendation yet, imo.

Chance of a bid Harry..?

No idea. According to Panmure Gordon, the assets of SIA are valued at approx 341p per share. Any increase in the sp is speculative value of exploration.

Opened a long in SIA SOCO, gap on chart to 430p and needs filling. Fundies look pretty solid. No extra tax here.


Sp moved above its 200 day MA aswell bullish.

SIA SOCO INTL looks to have very bullish TA going for it. see chart below. Gap to be filled and fundies look pretty solid.

Citi group with a target SP of 441p.

Citigroup starts Soco International PLC with buy rating; price target

of 441P

Broker forecast.....

Soco International
FTSE 250
Energy
Outperform
520
352
47.7%
RBC Capital Markets

520p target for SIA.

From Hemscott premium Broker positions as of this morning.....

SOCO International PLC

FORECASTS 2011 2012
Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Arbuthnot Securities [R]
23-03-11 BUY 169.81 41.05 505.30 92.06
Brewin Dolphin [R]
21-03-11 HOLD 243.39 43.10
Panmure Gordon [R]
22-02-11 BUY 61.49 10.87
Numis Securities Ltd [R]
01-02-11 HOLD 48.70 8.93 316.52 61.80
The Royal Bank of Scotland NV [R]
25-01-11 BUY 73.54 9.47
Evolution Securities Ltd [R]
17-01-11 SELL 91.93 14.06
Canaccord Genuity Ltd [R]
03-11-10 HOLD 22.49
Collins Stewart
26-10-10 HOLD


GROWTH
2010 (A) (E) (E)

Norm. EPS -76.59% % %
DPS % % %

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2010 (A) (E) (E)

EBITDA m m m
EBIT m m m
Dividend Yield 0.00% % %
Dividend Cover x x x
PER 166.31x x x
PEG -2.17f f f
Net Asset Value PS p p p

Soco International
FTSE 250
Energy
Outperform
520
380.5
36.7%
RBC Capital Markets

520p SP target, 36.7% upside.

And strange enough that fits exactly with my chart TA prediction going forward.

This company looking good value with forward PE of circa 4, is cash generative, profitable and no debt. Buying back own shares and some activity around share price.
Take note

Results due next week, any thoughts ????

SOCO's growth in the last five years has come from the development of an oil discovery in Vietnam.The company is no longer an explorer spending money drilling for oil -- it is also now a producer selling it. In 2011, SOCO made an average of $113 for each barrel sold versus just $84 in 2010. By the end of 2011, SOCO's entitlements from exploration reached 14,600 barrels per day, versus just 2,600 the year before. Most of the profit uplift came from the massive increase in production, which is expected to increase further as operations in Vietnam are ramped up.Yesterday, SOCO International announced the proposed purchase of a partner's minority stake in their Vietnamese operations. This would increase SOCO's share of Vietnamese production. This news led to increased speculation that SOCO might be positioning itself for a takeover.

Comment from Merrill Lynch :
"Exploration well success results in PO/NAV increase of +7%.
We reiterate our Buy rating and raise our PO/NAV from 500p to 536p post the successful TGT-10X exploration well on the H5 fault block of the Te Giac Trang (TGT) field. We anticipate that recoverable volumes from the field will increase by 14-21%. We raise our estimates on volumes to the new potential mid-point and increase our Chance of Success on the TGT field upside case from 45% to 65%. Separately, we continue to believe the quantum of the dividend to be announced with 1H13 Results on 29th Aug-’13 could surprise the market to the upside.

We believe that recoverable volumes will rise from 293mmboe to 334-355mmboe, an increase of 14-21%. The well encountered net pay of 117m, which we believe will result in an increase in recoverable volumes of c.40-60mmboe. The level of pay encountered was higher than pre-drill expectations and, unexpectedly, slightly thicker than that in the neighbouring H4 fault block to the north. Management will now negotiate with the relevant authorities in Vietnam whether to drill on c.200m to Target Depth (TD). Soco would not expect any significant increase in net pay but the authorities may require it for the purposes of gaining geological insight.

Soco has spudded the Lideka East Marine well (LDKEM-1) in the Marine XI block offshore the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville). The well is targeting c.130mmboe across 2 separate targets and is worth a risked 3p (unrisked 11p). Market expectations are low given previous non-commercial wells drilled in the block (Mindou and Makouala) in 2011. LDKEM-1 should yield a result by end Aug-’13.

The Dinge 20-6 well in the Cabinda North block will be spudded by end Jul-’13 and is worth a risked 4p (unrisked 7p). This well also arguably comes for free given the stock is currently trading at a 15% discount to our core NAV of 443p."

Canaccord note:
"SOCO is undertaking a cash return program and disclosed today the 2014 cash return is expected to be around US$100m, or ~20p/sh. 2013 production of 16.7mboe/d was 5% ahead of our 15.9mboe/d estimate and revenues of $608m were 3% below our estimate. Operating cashflow of US$311m (excluding working capital) was 3% ahead of our expectations – the cash generating capability of the business appears to be broadly in line with our estimates. Reserves estimates for TGT are unchanged, since a number of planned development wells were deferred into 2014. The company plans an interesting exploration well on an extension to ENI/New Age’s large Litchendjilli discovery offshore Congo (Brazzaville). We do not currently attribute any value to this prospect in our NAV.

Impact on the Canaccord Genuity view The 2014 cash return is ahead of our previously published estimate of 7p/sh, but inline with what we thought was possible (the amount we expect would be necessary to maintain year-end cash balances approximately flat assuming capex of US$150m). Note: we have not yet seen any capex guidance for 2014.

Valuation SOCO trades at 121% of our Central NAV, a substantial premium to the sector which trades at 82% on average. SOCO’s cash return policy is particularly favoured by the market, and presumably the market is assigning a lower discount rate given the cash returns policy. However, with the cash generating ability of the business in-line with our estimates we struggle to see the valuation as attractive. We would need to assume a 6.5% discount rate to see our Central NAV rise to around our current target price. Whilst it is possible a South East Asian buyer could acquire the principal asset(s) or the company, we believe more aggressive assumptions on discount rates and/or resource size at TGT would be required to justify an acquisition premium.

With a challenging valuation we downgrade our rating to SELL (from Hold) and retain our 385p target.

Ex-divi wed 23rd Sept (22p)

StockMarketWire.com
Soco International has posted a FY pretax profit of $152.7m, from $333.3m previously. Revenue totalled $448.2m, from $608.1m.

"Against a background of lower oil prices and resultant uncertainty around the scope and timing of future development, a prudent approach to reserve booking has reclassified a portion of reserves into Contingent Resources," the company said.

Soco said 2014 year-end group 2P reserves were 40.8 mmboe, while 2C Contingent Resources totalled 38.9 mmboe.

President and CEO Ed Story said 2014 was a strong year for Soco.

"We concluded an independent study confirming TGT's full potential and also progressed development with the TGT H5 discovery remaining on a fast track for first production in Q3 2015.

"We also delivered a second material cash return to shareholders of c. $119 million. Notwithstanding the challenging market conditions, given our financial strength and near-term outlook and based on the results of 2014, the Board is recommending a cash dividend of 10 pence per share, amounting to c.$50 million.

"We are committed to evaluating every alternative to optimise our exposure to upside without jeopardising our focus on sustainable cash generation. We remain value driven, see the current environment as an opportunity to plan for future growth and believe SOCO is well positioned to continue to execute its strategy."

Looking ahead for 2015:
· Operational focus on bringing TGT's H5 fault block production on line and working with TGT partners to submit updated FDP in Q3

· Production guidance maintained at 10.5-12 KBOEPD reflecting reduced scope of TGT drilling

· Sufficient cash flow and cash balances to meet ongoing capital expenditure

· Balance sheet capacity to take advantage of opportunities in the market as they arise

· Recommended dividend of 10p per share (c.$50 million) to be approved at the AGM

· Ongoing focus on sustainable cash flow generation and commitment to strategy of cash returns