I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

A share disaster..




50p is my opinion.

Ex-divi 25th July '12 (9.5¢)

Thanks HARRYCAT - I did not know that. When is payment date please

Payable 4th Sept '12.

Note from JPM Cazenove:
"AHL’s investment performance in Q2 has again been disappointing, requiring us to further reduce our earnings estimates. The impact on estimates has been compounded by expected de-gearing of Guaranteed products (which earn high revenue margins) and from reduced net flow expectations in future periods to reflect recent performance. Our EPS estimate for the current year falls to 5c from 9c. While in percentage terms the decline is clearly material, in large part this reflects just the decline in absolute levels of profitability, with the reduction in the current year equivalent to approximately $80m. That said, we have also now reduced our dividend expectations for 2013E to reflect much lower expected income. Once again it appears that earnings expectations have reduced to fully match the lower share price, leaving the stock no cheaper than it was at considerably higher levels. AHL (as measured by Man AHL Diversified) fell by 2.5% in the quarter. It is also around 2% lower than our last mark-to-market exercise. This has implications for immediate revenues from the lower NAV base; for expected performance fees; for de-gearing of guaranteed products; and also for expected future flows.
In percentage terms the downgrades are material, but this really is no more than a reflection of the low level of expected profits. Our management EPS estimate for the current year falls by 39%, or 3c per share. Our price target reduces to 45p accordingly. We have also reduced our 2013E dividend per share to 6c from 22c. Ironically, although the company has made clear its dividend policy, the lack of clarity to estimates means that there is still no certainty on future payments.
On 7 Jan 2011 at 311p the estimated one year forward PER was 13x and now at 71p it is 15x. There is no reason to believe Man is “cheap” despite the share price decline, we believe."

Press today all negative I believe 50p will find the bottom.

HARRYCAT, do you hold, buy or already short?

I hold stock for the divi, but showing a loss on the purchase. Am intending to buy more when the sp starts to rise, but now is not yet the time, imo.

Singer note out today:
"We are cutting our estimates on Man Group to reflect the poor performance from AHL in what continue to be volatile and challenging markets for managed futures. This is compounded by further de-gearing of guaranteed products which earn high margins and lower flow expectations in the light of the current environment. We reduced FY’12E EPS by 50% to 7.0cents. The reduction to FY’13E EPS is 59% to 10.1cents, given the further delay of a return to performance fee highs. The share performance has largely reflected the level of downgrades over the past few months.
However, given an increasing proportion of non-cash items included in EPS, we note that free cash flow per share is now twice forecast earnings and we base our dividend forecasts off this measure going forward whereas consensus is probably more focused on reported earnings. Given the high yield, despite a significant reduction to our target price, the potential total return leads us to maintain a BUY rating but we believe that more severe cost cutting measures are required to reduce the level of earnings volatility."

Down 7% it keeps on falling each day .

Numis were right .

40-50p sounds right to me.

Maybe the bottom has been reached?

BARCAP downgrade today.

ACQUISITION OF FRM HOLDINGS LIMITED BY MAN GROUP

17 July, 2012 (London) - Further to the announcement dated 21 May 2012, Man Group plc, has today completed its acquisition of FRM Holdings Limited.

Tuesday will bring us interim figures from hedge fund manager Man Group , which has seen its shares severely punished over the past couple of years -- they're down 78% to today's 68.7p -- since its flagship AHL fund has failed to deliver.

Wait, am I really flagging this one up as an investment opportunity? Well, it's a big risk, but it surely will bottom out and head upwards again at some time -- with a market cap of £1.3bn, and with £38bn under management, it's not going to just disappear. And forecasts for 2013 are actually positive -- even if the currently mooted 20% dividend is perhaps not sustainable.

Interim Results

Key points

· Funds under management (FUM) at 30 June 2012 of $52.7 billion (31 December 2011:
$58.4 billion), reflecting sales of $7.2 billion, redemptions of $9.6 billion, investment movement of -$0.3 billion, FX translation effects of -$0.5 billion and other movements, principally guaranteed product degears, of -$2.5 billion

· Adjusted profit before tax (PBT) of $121 million, comprising adjusted net management fee PBT of $108 million and net performance fee PBT of $13 million

· Statutory loss before tax on continuing operations for the six months ended 30 June 2012 of $164 million, reflecting impairment of goodwill associated with GLG ($91 million) and Man Multi-Manager ($142 million)

· On track to deliver $95 million of operating cost savings announced in March 2012

· Further annual cost savings of $100 million over the next 18 months announced today

· Surplus regulatory capital of $704 million at 30 June 2012, net cash of $564 million and total liquidity resources of $3.0 billion

· Interim dividend of 9.5 cents per share; total dividend for the year expected to be 22 cents.

Great news. Should add some more.
We will also get dividend tomorrow.

I assume the market is now factoring in the future potential rather than dwelling on the past, as the figures aren't that great.
"Peter Clarke, CEO, said: "Against a turbulent market and economic background, Man's funds under management have declined in the period principally as a result of continued net outflows and the deleveraging of our guaranteed products. The result is a marked decline in underlying profitability which, after goodwill impairments, produced a statutory loss."

Barclays note:
"Man’s interim results show outflows returning and a highly cautious outlook statement. The headline of $100m of cost cuts is probably sufficient to cause a modest recovery to continue in the name but asset manager shares rarely perform for long on a cost cutting story alone without sales or performance improvement. It is also notable that management are admitting a $200m hit to excess capital under Basel III/CRD IV which will affect future dividend payment capabilities. As ever whether AHL falls further or continues to recover (up 3.4% in past 2 weeks) is crucial. The fund sits on average 11% below HWM.
$100m of cost cuts – We estimate this is equivalent to ~9% of the current run-rate expense base. There is a lack of detail on how the $100m is to be achieved but undoubtedly it must involve job reductions. The timeline of achievement over the next 18 months is a little disappointing. To put the size of the problem in context, if we take management fees at 1H 12 against the prior comparative, Man has lost annualised management fees equivalent to $424m.
Worse than expected outflows of $1.4bn in the quarter – AUM was down -11% qoq to $52.7bn but qtr to June net outflows were worse than we expected, at -$1.4bn vs our expected -$1.1bn. This is an acceleration from the -$1bn last quarter, and was driven by $4.1bn gross sales offset by $5.5bn redemptions. This was driven by -$1.1bn out of open-ended AHL. The Nomura Global Trend fund, which offers daily liquidity, was a significant driver of redemptions in both Q1 and Q2. Negative invt and FX mvmt were in line at -$2.3bn and -$0.8bn respectively. However, degearing effect was milder than expected at -$1.8bn vs our estimated -$2.4bn.
Mixed update on balance sheet – As management indicated excess cash and capital have both recovered. Excess cash now totals $564m and excess capital has risen $117m in the half to $704m. However, the group admits under Basel III and CRD IV there will probably be a hit to capital of ~$200m, reducing dividend paying capabilities.
Adjust PBT $121m, goodwill impairment causes $164m statutory loss – Impairment of goodwill of $233mn caused the Group to book a headline loss before tax of of $164m. Ex-ing out this, adjusted PBT is $121m. This gives an adjusted EPS of 4.8 cents, in line with our projected 4.9 cents, of which 4.3 cents is management fee only.
Highly cautious outlook statement – Outlook statement is cautious about prospects in the short-term, highlighting implementing significant change in a very challenging operating environment, due to uncertain markets. However, the CEO’s review highlights good strategic positioning and confidence that the changes announced today will help rebuild shareholder value.
Holding company set up to enhance flexibility to maximise dividends – The group still intends to pay 22c divi for FY12 and is setting up a new holding company to pay as high as possible a dividend for FY13. A new LSE-listed non-trading group holding company (HoldCo) will be created to access distributable reserves, to enable ongoing flexibility. Under the terms of the Scheme, shareholders will exchange their existing ordinary shares in Man Group plc for shares in New Holdco on a one-for-one basis. Approval will be sought from shareholders at a separate general meeting expected end 2012. Interim DPS is 9.5 cents in line with expectations.
As ever AHL performance remains the most crucial issue and market volatility does not appear helpful – Man share price performance ytd is -45%. But on the back of 2 weeks positive weekly AHL data (+3.4% for the weekly fund), the share has rallied 9%. It is trading at 11x 2012E PE. Whilst taking out $100m of costs is impressive, as ever of greater share price sensitivity will be whether AHL falls further or continues to recover (up 3.4% in past 2 weeks). The fund sits on average 11% below HWM.