Pre IPO price 4p
Opening price on debut 25p
Floatation price 46p to raise 14million to extend Jolly Ranch
Current fair value estimate 114p
Market cap 70.59 million.
Value of Cisco Springs investments 98 million.
Value of Vogel investments 75 million.
Desparado trucking now Nightfox 250,000 for a 50% stake with partner Running Foxes.
Centurion Project Kansas, 150,000 for a 50% stake.
Jolly Ranch Colorado, 40,000 acres cost 356,000 for a 50% stake.
Cash in bank 7.75 million.

As this EPIC opens on AIM today anything could happen. On the one hand you have traders trying to cash in a sixfold profit. You will also have a clambering of traders after shares because, firstly they could only get 75% of their allocation because of demand. Secondly at 25p this company is still way under valued.

I can FEEL the shentiment returning Moneypenny...

Hope so, most of the O&G sector doing very well again. Now off to play in the October snow, global warming my ar5e

Nighthawk Energy

23p +1p

Questor says Buy

ANALYSTS were busy issuing price targets for Nighthawk Energy of more than six times where the US oil and gas explorer is trading, but the Aim company edged up a meek 4.6pc in response.

Sadly for the 48m company, its tale is similar to that of many other small-cap energy businesses. Since floating last March at 25p, the shares initially quadrupled, only to tumble in recent months as investors seek larger businesses which are in production.

Yesterday's full-year results showed largely flat revenues of $138,998 although unsuccessful exploration costs contributed to a pre-tax loss of $2.49m, up from a loss of $1.48m.

The group, however, is cheerful about its Jolly Ranch project in Colorado, which it argues will "transform" the company. Nighthawk maintains a strong cash position with $21m of cash.

Oil prices are an obvious concern, dropping below $60 a barrel in London yesterday on worries about a global recession. But Nighthawk has some potential, and moved into production last month. It is expected, in the near future, to update on further test drilling at Jolly Ranch.

The company has said it will ramp up production and analysts say the share price fall looks overdone. For the bold, buy.

"..unsuccessful exploration costs.." ?!?!?

Like "which" exactly???

Yet ANOTHER broker getting it wrong with HAWK?

gnashlevel2, no not getting it wrong final accounts show an amount of $316k charged to the p&l account in respect of "unsuccessful exploration costs". Suggest you read their accounts.

yeah seen it, not much though and the positive strike rate remains high.
Wonder how Hawk'll end the week?

the champagne keeps flowing!! gl all

you must be pi55ed as a fart by now gibby ;-)

The hawk is flying again!!bought some ive and ser they should move soon.

Well...this has shot up...and about time too !.

any Barclays Share Dealing users here? Does exactly 15 trades this month mean a 9.95 charge for all 15 trades, or just 9.95 for trades 15 onwards? (with 1-14 at 12.95)

Their website isn't totally clear.

Sorry ot.. but they were all Hawk buys :-)

is it my imagination, or is the latest RNS from HAWK every bit as promising (and more?) as it looks?

halifax .... what is your view?

it's better, by a long measure. This is being groomed for sale and it going to be a barnstormer

iterestingly it looks as though IG are at their (internally imposed) long limit

some figuring being done on a competitor board, from 10 a share Joly alone to +17 for whole company -done on 'conservative' figures. Hey even a third of that is funny money, I'm in for all I can get if I can find any cash, then leave it to the sell-off. Tried trading this but it always catches me out.

what a load of crap! ..... how on earth can HAWK be worth 10 a pop, let alone 17?????

the figures were admittedly 'optimistic' and 'fag-packet' stuff, but still based on conservative figures with some of Hawk's assets left out. This has been corrected on that board by a seasoned oiler, who hasn't much to argue about the figures except to caution the current market -but that could change by sale time.

Cynic, where are your detailed figures then? Just for comparison? Or don't you ever get off that armchair ;-)

Here is a cutnpaste, take it in the spirit it was intended cynic!

"
Ok IJ, here we go: -

Jolly @ $25k per acre = 2.165bn


Cisco = 121BCF + 3.8m Barrels.
We have 50%, so at $3 per mmcf and $10 per barrel = 112m + 11.7m = 123.7m


Buchanan/Devon/Xenia - difficult to calculate all of them individually from the Annual Report as we have no indication of oil/gas in place at Xenia at all at present. However, we do have an indication of what to expect from all 3 combined (with the 50/80/50% WI's respectively, we get 60% WI average for simplicity): -

44,000 acres total with 250k barrels in place per 10 acres and recovery between 20 and 50%, so we'll assume 35% (the middle), which gives: -

44000/10 x 250000 = 1.1bn barrels x 35% = 385m recoverable x 60% = 231m barrels @ $10/barrel = 1.425bn


Centurion = 13,500 acres and 50% WI; 150mmcf per 80 acres and 200k barrels per 40 acres gives: -

25.3BCF and 67.5m Barrels x 50% = 12.65BCF + 33.75m Barrels = 23.4m + 208.33m = 231.73m


Cliffs = 15,591 acres and 80% WI; 9BCF/640 acres (middle of the range given of 6-12BCF) = 219.25BCF x 80% = 175.4BCF = 324.49m


So, in total we have: -

Jolly = 2.165bn
Cisco = 123.7m
Buchanan/Devon/Xenia = 1.425bn (I'm a bit unsure about in the calcs, think I may have over-egged it, so let's say just 50% of this total for safety) = 712m
Centurion = 231.73m
Cliffs = 324.49m

TOTAL = 3.557bn or 17.26 per share.

Any glaring errors/omissions, etc. please point them out.

Bear in mind, this does include a broad calc on Buchanan/Devon/Xenia, hence the 50% reduction in my calculated value.
"



THEN replied by:

"
H - very cheering :-) At least your exercise demonstrates clearly the rationale for HAWK moving focus from Cisco - they must have done similar mathematics.

As for omissions... well, it's small beer, but you used oil in place rather than reserves at centurion. On the other hand, you missed out the Chattanooga shale there, I think. "The estimated gas in place in respect of the Chattanooga Shale is between 8 to 12 billion cubic feet per 640 acres. The Cherokee shales typically recover 150 million cubic feet of gas per well on 80 acre spacing and conventional reservoirs vary from 5,000 to 500,000 barrels of oil on 40 acre spacing"

The acreage at Devon is very small compared to Xenia and B&W, so it would be easier to say 50% for the waterfloods. But you knocked that back anyway.

Other than that, calcs at a quick glance look OK... valuations are optimistic based on current status, but that wasn't the point :-)
"

cynic my view is we can believe Hawk's optimism when we see some actual production and see cash coming in, so far they have yet to produce anything tangible.

halifax, you dropped your white stick?

Haven't you read the rns? they ARE producing, and it is gearing up quickly.

By all means, sit on that fence and wait until you see "thousands of barrels a day", which you will, but by then you will not be talking an sp anything like todays.

I don't get just what you actually want in way of reassurance on Hawk? Honestly I think by the time you are happy you will be priced out. Maybe that's why some investors get multi-bags, and others.. well others just don't.

gnashlevel2 as you are so well informed please tell me the value of HAWK'S sales of oil and gas so far in US$s.