Star Energy is currently testing the Avington well in Southern England.
This will take about 4 weeks an RNS news feed said, it started on 25/06/06.

I hope it proves positive so we get a good share price rise!
We are 5% holders but i'm not sure how much in pence potential this is worth for the company.

Another good reason to hold on to this share.

seems to have some recent momentum heading toward 120p short term

At long last it's taken off....

thought might be a bit of profit taking 120p by the end of the day then plenty of orders on L2 very few sellers must be thinking that GS know their stuff ??

NOP is at a 6-month high breakout. NOP is about to hit a Golden Cross. Feel free to copy this to other NOP BB's.

http://i55.tinypic.com/2rz9ht1.jpg

http://i53.tinypic.com/14t80bd.jpg

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp


Report Date: 24 June 2010
Northern Petroleum has evolved from a small UK based oil exploration and development
company to a significant operator with a balanced risk exposure across 56 licences including
potential high value aggregate billion barrel targets in Italy. We consider Northern Petroleum
undervalued compared to peers on an existing P1 reserve based valuation where it is worth
around 129p* alone (P2 would suggest considerably more) and see significant scope for re‐rating
as it moves to the next stage of its development as a mid‐tier operator. The investment can be
viewed as something of a two way bet, with both exploration and development upside. We rate
Northern Petroleum as high amongst the best oil and gas situations on offer in the AIM market.


Increasing the production profile: While the exploration activities are less quantifiable, the
company has a very credible plan for achieving major production uplifts from just under 2,000
boepd where they now reside to over 8,000 boepd by 2015 (>3,000 boepd by the end of 2012).
Unsurprisingly this will have a significant impact on cashflows. In terms of top‐line revenue a
crude calculation would suggest revenues of 5.1mn last year could raise over 18x to around
97m. Of course these plans while feasible are ambitious and subject to risk. However, if we
were to look closer out to 2012 where production should be well over 2,500 boepd, this should
produce somewhere in the region of >30m in a full year.

Extensive portfolio contains: Northern Petroleum has 7m boe in the UK (2 producing fields; 12
onshore exploration licences/1 offshore); The Netherlands 42.7m boe; 6 onshore production
licences/1 offshore; 3 onshore exploration licences; 4 producing gas fields). Italy 53.2mbbl (5
onshore exploration licences/21 offshore; 6 offshore applications); Guyane (1.25% interest in
Tullow/Shell offshore exploration).

The Netherlands should generate the bulk of production uplifts for the next few years. The
company currently produces around 1.2k boepd from 5 fields which is set to increases to c.2k
boepd by the end of this year and to >5k by 2015. Proven undeveloped oil and gas will comprise
the totality of the production uplift which significantly reduces the risk profile in our view.

Italy is the prize: Whilst the Netherlands should continue to deliver strong progress and the UK
value which can be recycled into development activities it is Italy (the second part of the two way
bet) which perhaps offers the greatest potential. The company is chasing elephants in its
offshore Italy exploitation targets. For example in the Adriatic, an independent report places a
mean barrels of oil in place potential (so very early stage and currently subject to a high degree
of risk) at 3bn barrels of oil over six prospects in only 2 of 7 licences.

Shell farm out: Shell has farmed into 6 offshore licences West of Sicily with the option of drilling
and testing an exploration well next year. 1,520 km2 of 3D seismic is currently being processed.
Valuation: We employ a rudimentary EV/barrel methodology for valuation (the group had no debt
as at the end of FY 2009) and arrive at a price target of 207p per share (details following page).

Companies estimate of NPV per share (undiluted) given a total NPV of 103m (for P1 only)/P2 figure is 749.2m or 940p

http://www.hbmarkets.com/assets/0/169/171/6500fcf6-6f9b-4dfe-b03c-537ce2fe2676.pdf


Mon, 8th Nov 2010 08:23
Goldman Sachs starts Northern Petroleum with buy rating and price target of 189P
http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareNews.asp?shareprice=NOP&ArticleCode=vvxj8fmpjh3ihxr&ArticleHeadline=BRIEFRESEARCH_ALERTGoldman_Sachs_starts_Northern_Petroleum_PA_Resources_with_buy

Dec 14, 2010 at 08:31
Shore Capital has a hold for Beazley, a sell for Capita, buys for Bunzl and Go-Ahead Group, a hold for NWF and reiterates buy for Northern Petroleum
http://83.217.99.68/new-model-adviser/broker-roundup-deutsche-bank-positive-on-barclays/a457667

14th August 2010
The July Stocks and Markets Review from GE&CR on UK-Analyst.com ( http://gecr.co.uk/ )
Buy with a 314p target price.
http://uk-analyst.com/shop/page-advice/action-advertorial.show/id-130006995

Another broker BUY rec. Matrix this time, at 170p target.
http://www.igmarkets.co.uk/content/files/ukratings_21dec_igmam.pdf

Buy-if yesterday and today
http://www.britishbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=nop

100% buy
http://www.insidestocks.com/texpert.asp?sym=NOP.LS&code=BTTEN


Plenty to raise the SP in 2011
NOPs Netherlands focus now switches to developing the Papekop and Ottoland oil fields and further development drilling at Geesbrug. A production test of the Ottoland well, also on the Andel III licence, is on schedule for 2011. Drilling and testing of a new development well on the Papekop field is also due in 2011. A further well is also due to be drilled in 2011 on the significant Geesbrug gas field as NOP targets additional production from its 23.8mmboe net 2P reserves. Geesbrug represents 56% of NOPs current Netherlands 2P reserves.
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.co.uk/

http://www.northpet.com/news/update-/

Hit oil down in Sussex I think.....now wouldn't it be strange if this turns out to be an excellent strike...might have hit 20 million barrels plus .....

Even if this is not commercial.....no stopping this now......150p plus is a strong possibility...at long last the market is recognising this company's potential.....

My mistake,... it could be 35 million barrels of oil and the upside is more than 60 million.....this could be fantastic for NOP....who have a 50% share....

UK
Required field, it might be good, but it's a side-show drilling IMHO. I think they were forced to drill or lose their chance.It will be a fairly low-grade oil, as there are other wells in this area(of the UK); not massive, but providing cash-flow. . At least some -return, if the core-samples prove worthwhile (prob.Jan2011). Your "barrels" look somewhat toppy, but what do I know?
Europe
The other news was less-good, IMHO. re the Dutch Gas site....Hope, but don't hold breath.

Northern Drilling Well in West Sussex

12.11.10
Northern Petroleum Plc (AIM:NOP), is shortly to commence drilling the Markwells Wood 1 well to test a target with a mean potential independently assessed at 35.0 million barrels of oil in place, with an upside potential of 61.4 million barrels with a ten percent probability. The drilling equipment is currently moving onto the site.

The location is between the Horndean and Singleton producing oil fields and is assessed to be an extension of the former. The final measured depth will be 6009 ft (1831m) at a true vertical depth of 4528 ft (1380m). Electric logs will be run to evaluate their well potential.

http://www.northpet.com/news/detail/2010/11/northern-drilling-well-in-west-sussex

hangon, where is your proof that it will be a fairly low grade oil? The grade of oil has nothing to do with the size of the field???

According to NOP the oil is worth the same as the current Brent Crude. Just look at their reserves calculations.

Horndean and Singleton are producing oil fields, they are selling this oil you know, not giving it away!!

Try putting some verifiable facts in your deramping, just so we can see if you know anything other than how to deramp ;)

Here is my contribution, table 5 page 5
http://www.northpet.com/assets/uploads/assets/uk-reserves-and-markwells-wood-summaries.pdf

hangon,

"The Havant exploration well is to be drilled in 2010 and could, if successful and with the requisite consents, be brought on stream rapidly. The oil quality in this basin is excellent."

http://www.northpet.com/operations/united-kingdom/

VAST oil reserves worth millions of pounds are believed to lie beneath one of Britain's biggest housing estates.

Oil giant Northern Petroleum Ltd claims the sprawling estate at Havant, Hants, is a potential oasis of "black gold".

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article2068406.ece

Read the parts on Horndean, Horndean East PEDL126

http://www.envoi.co.uk/P182Northern(UKWealdAssetPackage)Synopsis.pdf

The well that hit oil today has been drilled as a producer well so it is instant cash generation if it can produce. It would also increase the value of any possible sale of the UK assets.

BUY CONFIRMED

Today a Long White Candlestick was formed. This shows that the prices advanced significantly from open to close during the day under strong buying pressure.

Patience pays off. The market wavered a bit but finally confirmed the recent bullish formation. The dose of the previous day was not enough for a confirmation but today it is. The market opened with a gap-up and the days activity resulted in a close higher than the open. This is a valid confirmation criterion. The market seems ready for a new bullish move.

The significant failure of the previous SELL signal is unfortunately confirmed too. Our shot went away this time. It is a fact that such signal failures are more unlikely for higher rated stocks, but it is not possible to deal with all the vagaries of the stock market. The signal system, however, continues to do an excellent job in the overall, despite such failures. This can be seen easily with a quick glance to the signal history table.

We hope that you bought this stock and still have the chance to profit from the later phase of the bullish attack. Today you were supposed to watch the upward gap in the opening, wait a bit, feel the bullish tendency of the market making sure that prices stay over the opening price and then go long. Your benchmark was the opening price of the upward gap.

If you bought, continue to hold this stock until the confirmation of the next SELL-IF signal. You are on relatively safe grounds as long as the future prices continue to trade above the benchmark price and if an emergency warning is not issued. What to do if you did not buy? Maybe, you did not have time to follow the session or you simply delegated the delicate job of confirmation to us. Well it is a bit late, but not too late. You may still find suitable prices for buying in the following sessions and still profit in case of a sustained bullish move.

The market is currently cold for short-sellers. Avoid any short sales and cover the short positions immediately if there are any. We erred significantly on the short side last time, but we are sure that you may easily cover your losses (if any) by basing your future trades on our signal system.

http://www.britishbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=nop

NOP hoping Tullow hit black gold in Feb 2011. What SP if this comes off?

French Guiana
A number of Jubilee-type leads have been identified in the south-eastern part of the block and the acquisition of a large 3D seismic program (2,500 sq km) was completed in early February 2010. Processing and interpretation of this dataset is ongoing and planning for the first well on the material Zaedyus prospect is continuing, with a target spud date of February 2011.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=97861


Country French Guiana
Block Guyane Maritime
Prospect Zaedyus
Gross upside* 700 mmbo

http://files.the-group.net/library/tullow/presspack/pdfs/tullow_2009fypresentation.pdf


Northern having a net beneficial 1.25% interest.
http://www.northpet.com/news/detail/2010/12/update-


700mmbo @ 1.25% to NOP is 8.75mmbo, currently $90 per barrel. Drilling in Feb 2011

Tullow drilling oil in Feb, Orca drilling gas in Q2.

The La Tosca prospect is estimated to contain 45 Bcf of gross mean prospective
resource with an upside of 85 Bcf of 99.5% methane gas. Work is currently in progress to secure a site from which to drill the La Tosca-1 well, scheduled for Q2 2011.
http://www.orcaexploration.com/operations_Italy_Longastrino.asp

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=45559119

17:45, Monday 27 December 2010

Brent crude for February delivery hit $94.52 in morning trading its highest level since the height of the banking crisis in October 2008 before profit takers moved in. Brent finished 15 cents higher at $93.92. Although UK markets were closed, Brent crude contracts can still be traded electronically.

Oil prices are expected to rise steadily next year, with many analysts forecasting the price could cross the psychologically important $100 a barrel mark.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS - news) , Morgan Stanley (DWDF.EX - news) , Bank of America Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan Chase have all said they expect oil to move above $100 in 2011, with some raising the possibility that it could happen earlier in the year than many feared.

The key risk is that we are being too cautious and that the threat of $100 per barrel oil that is implicit in our fourth quarter 2011 oil forecast arrives sooner than we expect driven by not only a weak dollar, but also by rampant Chinese and emerging market demand, Lawrence Eagles, an energy analyst at JP Morgan, said in a recent report.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/World-markets-fall-oil-price-tele-3154817514.html

$100 a barrel for 6Bn++ barrels is rather a lot more than NOP is valued at today.

NOP Italy deatils
http://www.northpet.com/operations/italy/


Way more detail in this article though.

In the Sicily Channel, the focus was over the G.R.17.NP., G.R.18.NP, and G.R.19.NP permits. Regional modeling suggests the Lower Tertiary reservoirs are the most promising targets, with the Cretaceous containing the primary source rock. Northerns geologists have identified several billion barrel-plus prospects developed as drape features over underlying thrust anticlines.

Another new 200 km (124 mi) 2D survey over the C.R147.NP permit in the Straits of Sicily, again on the median line, confirmed two significant prospects with potential reserves of 400 MMbbl and 200 MMbbl.

It also estimates the potential oil in place in six other drilling prospects identified by Enterprise on the two licenses at 1.26 to 6 Bbbl.

There could be further targets in three adjacent offshore licenses, for which Northern holds preliminary awards. According to Northerns geologists, the southern Adriatic is under-explored, despite most of the wells to date being discoveries. There are analogies to Mexicos prolific Golden Lane and Poza Rica trend, which includes the multi-billion barrel Poza Rica field.

http://www.offshore-mag.com/index/article-display/324175/articles/offshore/volume-68/issue-3/special-report-italy/independents-leading-exploration-revival-off-southern-italy.html

Option to get in before the spudding here. 1Bn+ barrels in Europe is an amazing potential discovery. NOP just 114.95m today.

Sicily drill decision imminent


Published: Dec 27, 2010
Offshore staff

LONDON -- Northern Petroleum and its partner Shell Italia will decide before end-March whether to drill in their Thrust and Fold Belt permits offshore Sicily.

Permits CR146 has a prospect with estimated resources of 1 Bbbl-plus.

Northern adds that the CR147 permit has been made more attractive by ADX Energys recent announcement of the Lambouka in nearby Tunisian waters.

The farm-out process for both permits continues.

12/28/2010
http://www.offshore-mag.com/index/article-display/3801899726/articles/offshore/drilling-completion/north-sea-northwest-europe-2/2010/12/sicily-drill_decision.html

The Golden Cross is here, as the 50EMA just crossed the rising 200EMA.