http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

A lot of investors won't even know about this yet so the top might not be until next moday at 120p...perhaps...just a guess....perhaps coupled with a market recovery if Cameron's lot get in...

Those with 2nd level might post what prices are the main orders for...if poss. thanks....

from Oriel Securities......................

"Rockhopper Exploration (RKH, under rveiew, 77p) - Sea Lion oil discovery, initial thoughts
Rockhopper has announced that initial indications are that the Sea Lion well in the North Falklands is an oil discovery
The well encountered a 150m gross sand and shale interval with 53m of net pay in multiple pay zones. The thickest zone had net pay of 25m
Average porosity is c19%, but there was no indication of permeabilities at this stage. This remains the key uncertainty given the quality of reservoirs encountered to date in the North Falklands, including the Barremian interval being targeted in this prospect, has been variable
Additional logging information is being collected before a decision is made whether to abandon the well or suspend it for further testing at a later date.
The net pay encountered appears to be larger than that used to estimate the P50 pre-drill resources of 170mmb for the prospect. Our analysis of the seismic time section in the CPR suggests the targeted reservoir interval had pay potential of c20-30m to derive the pre-drill volumes, although this has not been confirmed by the company
Based on a notional US$8.5/boe valuation (may prove to be conservative in a US$90/bbl environment), a 170mmb discovery would be worth c600p/sh
Although early days this is clearly an encouraging result and the positive share price reaction is not overdone. The result also has positive implications for further prospectivity on both Rockhopper's and Desire's acreage in the North Falklands, particularly the Barremian fan plays on the eastern basin margin (Rockhoppers' analogue prospects include Fox at c144mmb and Stephens at c106mmb)
Our recommendation is under review pending a further update on the well, especially any data regarding reservoir quality"

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If you take this below and double the 170mmb due to the double thickness net oil pay, you get 340mmb.

Thats a figure of 1200p a share just for this find, thats the potential.

And people are selling at the current price ? Well, its takes all sorts.........


The net pay encountered appears to be larger than that used to estimate the P50 pre-drill resources of 170mmb for the prospect. Our analysis of the seismic time section in the CPR suggests the targeted reservoir interval had pay potential of c20-30m to derive the pre-drill volumes, although this has not been confirmed by the company

Based on a notional US$8.5/boe valuation (may prove to be conservative in a US$90/bbl environment), a 170mmb discovery would be worth c600p/sh

Its all up in the air, but really the upside from here is staggering..... and yet people sell, but thats the market, if people do not sell others cannot buy...... and so it all goes around.

GKP went from 10p to 20p to 30p to 50p to 70p to 120p in the end.

RKH could easily see 400p levels if the news flow is good. But it will be step by step, no straight line upwards, as was the case with GKP.

So what happens if the next one is a duster, P? Those that sold now won't seem so dumb!

i think the real importance is that commercial quantities of oil would appear to have been discovered .... if that is the case, and are proven to be substantial, interest in the whole region and its attaching oilies will rocket

Risk and reward Harrycat.

The big rewards are only there for those who take the risk, yes, you take the losers with it, but if the big one comes in it makes up for all the bad ones.

I like the risk/reward and willing to be "dumb" if its a duster, but also willing to be very rich if its not.

Just reported to the market.

Looks like CREDIT SUISSE CLIENT NOMINEES (UK) LIMITED have sold all their holdings (31,744,278 shares) in Fogl on 24/04/10.
Now I wonder where they will put it.

No doubt there will be some very big late reported buys over the next few days.

not necessarily in any of these falklands stocks
note that it was nominees who sold, so we have no idea of the reasoning

You can be sure that banks, funds will be loading up with these now....

surprised the tv news haven't reported the oil strike after their earlier coverage of possible argie intervention.

it'll be interesting to see what the press makes of it all

Halifax,

Understand it has been on Sky and BBC news bulletins this afternoon, although not seen it myself. No doubt it will be on the 6 O'clock, 6-30 news and the latter evening slots.
If it wasn't for it being election day and Greece kicking of even worse, I think it would have been more prominent.

We have all heard the saying, 'A great day to bury bad news', well it looks like this is not the best day for good news to get out.

Closing now, and off to the village shop to get a really good bottle of wine, to drink to Rockhopper. May of course need to save some to drown my sorrows if the overnight results look like our Gordon is to get back in.

what's the deal on Southern Basin?
for sure it's shallower, but what grounds are there for believing that there is actually oil there?

Channel 4 reporting RKH oil find shortly.

The big Q is how will the crash on the Dow impact everything tomorrow morning.
Oil strike or not prices will be marked down at the open. Maybe a chance to add to holdings at a better price?

Take today's money and run, TT. ;-)))

The DOW recovered from worst tofinish 347.80 points

At its worst, the Dow was down 998.50 points