Company website is www.admiralgroup.co.uk

"UBS has downgraded insurance titan Admiral from buy to neutral and slashed the target price by a whopping 45%, from 1,610p to 890p, following the groups statement yesterday which resulted in over a quarter of its market value being lost.

Although we believe that Admiral remains among the best managed non-life companies in Europe, earnings transparency is low until the reasons for the acceleration in large bodily injury claims become clear, said UBS analyst James Pearce.

Other brokers have cut their ratings and/or targets today on the stock: Nomura kept its buy rating but reduced its target price from 1,900p to 1,100p; Credit Suisse downgrades from neutral to underperform, target cut from 1,500p to 1,100p."

Brokers' round-up, major downgrades for Admiral Group
StockMarketWire.com
UBS downgrades Admiral Group from buy to neutral, target price cut from 1610p to 890p.

Credit Suisse downgrades Admiral Group from underperform to neutral, target price cut from 1500p to 1100p.

Deutsche Bank downgrades Admiral Group from buy to hold, target price cut from 1500p to 1100p.

Collins Stewart downgrades Admiral Group from buy to hold, target price cut from 1700p to 880p.

Numis downgrades Admiral Group from buy to add, target price 1040p.

Its disgraceful (but nothing new) the number of brokers that have recently been issuing buy notes on this with 19 targets.

numpties each and every one.

{ Rachel Cooper, 19:50, Friday 2 December 2011

As the blue-chips steamed ahead, Admiral was becalmed as analysts forecast stormy waters ahead for the insurer

Last month, Admiral shocked the market with a warning that profits this year could come in at the lower end of expectations due to a jump in injury claims, succumbing to an industry trend that the motor insurer had previously resisted.

Admirals shares have fallen 40pc in the past year and 24pc since the profit warning alone, and analysts at RBC (MCX: RBCI.ME - news) cautioned that they do not expect a recovery following underperformance.

Beginning coverage of Admiral with an underperform rating, the broker argued that competition could intensify, partly due to the proliferation of price comparison websites that allow customers to track down the best deals.

We believe that the price comparison sites should continue to grow in popularity and further dominate the UK car insurance market, said analysts. The benefits to the customer are high, which should increase their popularity as the number of customers using the Internet to purchase insurance increases over time. We view this as negative for the profitability of the industry, as price competition should increase further, leading to declining margins.

But having dipped as low as 872p, Admiral finished just a hapenny lower at 911p while banks and other financials helped lead the blue-chips higher.

Investec note:
"Admiral Group: Going like a freight train. Downhill.

We retain our Sell recommendation and have cut our TP from 843p to 570p.
The profit warning at 9M 2011 has increased the risk in holding this stock, in our view. Our old TP equated to a PER of 10.4x, a premium to the market which we feel is no longer deserved. There is a significant risk of next years earnings being hit by additional reserve strengthening.

The shares have recovered from the lows following the profit warning. However, we feel a market PER of 8x our forecast 2012 earnings is the most that an optimist could justify and this equates to a share price of 800p.

It seems inevitable to us that as the business continues to grow strongly, there will be shocks such as those that occurred with the 9M IMS. Admiral is still significantly more profitable than all its competitors. It is our view that given the commoditised nature of the UK motor insurance market, this will change as the competition narrows the gap.

It is not clear whether the claims shocks described in the 9M IMS will be a one-off. This note illustrates what could happen with a significant reserve increase next year. If an event like this did occur, the 10% dividend growth we currently forecast would be void. In such an event, it seems likely the company would revert to its original pay-out policy of paying 45% of earnings. This would see the 2012 dividend reduce to something in the order of 44p. It could be that earnings will not be hit by a one-off increase in reserving but the company may feel it sensible to retain more earnings and cut the dividend.

Given all these unquantifiable risks, we retain our Sell recommendation."

Admiral Group PLC : Extension of Reinsurance Ar...

HUG

Admiral Group plc
Extension of Reinsurance Arrangements for UK Car Insurance
3 February 2012

Admiral Group ("Admiral") today announces that it is extending its existing UK Car Insurance reinsurance partnerships with Hannover Re, Mapfre Re, New Re and Swiss Re into 2014. The cost of these arrangements to Admiral is unchanged.

The extended arrangements are in addition to the current co-insurance agreement with Munich Re (covering 40% of the UK business), which runs until at least the end of 2016. Admiral has committed to retain at least 25% of the UK underwriting for the duration of this agreement, whilst the allocation of the balance is at Admiral's discretion.

Share of UK Car Insurance underwriting:

.................2012.........2013..........2014
Admiral..... 25.00%......25.00%......25.00%
Munich Re..40.00%......40.00%......40.00%
New Re......13.25%.....13.25%.......13.25%
Hannover Re8.75%......8.75%..........8.75%
Swiss Re.....7.50%......7.50%..........9.00%
Mapfre Re....3.00%......3.00%..........4.00%
XL Re 2.50% 2.50%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Commenting on the developments, Chief Executive Officer, Henry Engelhardt, said: "We are happy to announce these extensions to our underwriting arrangements into 2014. Reinsurance has been at the core of Admiral's successful business model since 2000 and we look forward to continuing our mutually beneficial relationships with our partners for many years to come."

Mind the gap!

In auction +10%

Blue-chip motor insurer Admiral has been navigating choppy waters of late.

The stock market darling which owns comparison site Confused.com , has faced a testing few months as it struggles to convince the analysts it can maintain the remarkable levels of growth it has achieved since being founded by entrepreneur Henry Engelhardt in 1991.

On Friday, the Cardiff-based insurer was one of the market's big winners after extending risk-sharing arrangements with a group of leading reinsurers, including Hannover Re and Swiss Re into 2014.

However yesterday, the company hit the skids, sliding 39½ to 998½p after a series of broker downgrades.

Barclays Capital cut Admiral's target price to 959p from £10.19 as part of a wider sector note, which warned that some European insurers will post large losses when they report full-year results over the next few week.

Andy Hughes, analyst at Exane BNP Paribas, also lowered his target price on Admiral by 13pc to 905p. "Admiral's share price reacted strongly on Friday to the announcement that the reinsurance arrangements had been extended to 2014 on current terms," he said. "This prompted some commentators to say that Admiral's reserving issues were in the past and that the reinsurers had audited the level of reserves. We see a key difference between the reinsurance and the shareholder risk. We do not believe the reinsurance structures will be effective in capital terms under [incoming insurance rules] and therefore the extension is rather irrelevant."

Mr Hughes added that he though Admiral's market share was declining.

Final Results.

Admiral Group plc Results for the Year Ended 31 December 2011
7 March 2012

Admiral Group plc ("Admiral" or "the Group") today announces a strong annual
result with a profit before tax of GBP299 million for the year to December 2011,
an increase of 13% over the previous year. Turnover, comprising total premiums
and other revenue, rose 38% to GBP2.19 billion. The Board is proposing a final
dividend for 2011 of 36.5 pence per share, to be paid on 1 June 2012.

2011 Preliminary Results Highlights

* Group profit before tax up 13% at GBP299 million (2010: GBP266 million)
* Record total dividend of 75.6p (2010: 68.1p)
* Return on capital of 59% (2010: 59%)
* Group turnover* up 38% at GBP2.19 billion (2010: GBP1.58 billion)
* Number of customers up 22% to 3.36 million (2010: 2.75 million)
* International car insurance turnover* up 57% to GBP122 million with customers
up 57% to 306,000
* Group full year reserve release GBP10.3 million
* Nearly 5,500 staff will receive free shares worth GBP3,000 in the Employee
Share Scheme based on the 2011 result

* Turnover is defined as total premiums written (including co-insurers' share)
and other revenue

Out of extended auction +92 +8.8%

Extract from Nomura...

Not yet on cruise control, but on the road to recovery

The shares have recovered since the low point at the time of the Q3 profit warning. Although some more data points are required to get more comfort on loss ratio development, we nonetheless believe that 1)management’s conservatism in reserving, 2) action on risk pricing, 3) cautious approach to growth and portfolio composition, and 4) additional initiatives to improve risk selection, means the stock should continue to regain some of its lost premium P/E rating. We retain our Buy.

Target price 1300p

It's possibly the £1 divi attracting the punters?

EDIT : Disregard. Not correct.

You cynic! :-)

Imagine what will happen to the sp once it goes ex-divi! Though profit takers will presumably have moved on before that.

The final dividend is 36.5p (includes the special dividend) and it goes ex-div on 2 May. Some way off a quid per share?

Sorry, totally misread it. I thought it was 36.5p + the 75.6p. It is actually 17.4p + 19.1p special.

Q1 2012 Interim Management Statement

26 April 2012

Admiral Group plc ("Admiral" or "the Group") today releases its Interim Management Statement covering the period 1 January 2012 to 26 April 2012. Unless otherwise stated, figures quoted are for the quarter ended 31 March 2012, with comparatives reflecting the position compared against the same quarter in 2011.

Comment from Henry Engelhardt, Chief Executive Officer

"Admiral has made a good start to the year with performance in the first quarter as we had expected. Our business continues to grow and prosper and our expectations for the full year remain positive and unchanged."

Group Highlights

Group turnover* increased 9% to £586 million (Q1 2011: £539 million)
Group vehicle count increased 17% to 3.4 million (Q1 2011: 2.9 million)
UK car insurance vehicle count increased 13% to 3.0 million (Q1 2011: 2.7 million); as anticipated, this represents an annualised growth rate in the first quarter of the order of 5%
International car insurance vehicle count increased 83% to 350,000 (Q1 2011: 190,000)
No change in claims trends from Q4 2011
UK other revenue per vehicle stable at £84
Financial position remains strong
*Turnover is defined as total premiums written (including co-insurers' share) and Other Revenue

Admiral, the FTSE 100 motor insurer, will report its first-half results on Thursday, when it will hope to convince its doubters that it can maintain the impressive profits it has posted over the past few years. Fears over the company’s future growth have intensified in recent months amid concern that an outright ban on insurers earning so-called referral fees from third parties will hit its profitability.

Pre-tax profits are expected to hit £167.7m, compared with £160.6m last year.