.

It's shot up.....something in the rumour....

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/01/16/834471/markets-live/

PM
Small cap corner?
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And …….. Falklands yet again.
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After this Sunday Times story
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That Cairn may be keen to buy a lump of Rockhopper
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Unfortunately, it seems a bit more nuanced than that.
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Here’s what the FT wrote this morning.
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Rockhopper Exploration, the oil and gas company focused on the Falkland Islands, has started work on plans to find a partner to develop a big oil discovery in the South Atlantic, in a move which may also lead to a sale of the Aim-listed explorer.
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Any new partner will have to weigh up the political risk of entering the Falklands, which remain a flashpoint in relations between Britain and Argentina. Buenos Aires continues to claim sovereignty over the islands it calls Las Malvinas, and has been highly critical of the recent drilling campaign there. Last year, Mercosur, the South American trade bloc, banned Falkland-flagged ships from docking in Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay.
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And …….
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Last year Rockhopper held informal talks with Cairn Energy about entering the Sea Lion project, the people said, but they did not result in a deal. The two are not currently in talks, though contacts between the two companies could be renewed in the coming weeks. Indian and Korean oil companies are also expected to show an interest, one of the people said.
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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0eb8c6b8-3fa6-11e1-ad6a-00144feab49a.html
Rockhopper Exploration PLC (RKH:LSE): Last: 303.75, up 28.75 (+10.45%), High: 315.00, Low: 262.60, Volume: 4.85m
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Now ………..
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That’s a bit odd.
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Because we knew Rockhopper was looking at a farmout in the first quarter or so.
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Cairn would seem to be distancing themselves from the auction.
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And no-one I’ve heard from really fancies the idea of them getting into the Falklands.
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Liberum, for example.
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The persistent rumours linking Cairn to Rockhopper are difficult to believe. They do not play to any of Cairn’s strengths and would appear to be a poor use of its resources. HOLD.
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Bit more of that, I think.
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The Sunday Times reported that Rockhopper (market cap US$1.2bn) has appointed BOA Merrill Lynch to find a partner to help manage and finance the development of the Sea Lion discovery in the Falklands. It is widely believed that Sea Lion contains at least 300 mmb oil and will cost more than US$2bn to develop. Rockhopper appears to have neither the expertise nor the finance to progress the project. There is speculation that the auction could lead to a full takeover and the STimes claims that Cairn Energy is considering such a move.
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Cairn completed the initial phase of drilling offshore Greenland in 2011 with 8 unsuccessful wells, writing off US$1.1bn. After completing the part sale of its shareholding in Cairn India to Vedanta Resources, Cairn had net cash at end 2011 of US$4.7bn, US$3.5bn of which is to be returned to shareholders. Cairn also retains c.22% of Cairn India which could realise c.US$2.4bn (post potential CGT).
BE
Cairn has no plans to drill in Greenland until it brings in a partner to share the costs of exploring. It is unclear when in 2012 this will be achieved or on what terms. So, at present, Cairn has US$3.6bn liquid assets that can finance future Greenland costs and new ventures.
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Here’s the important bit.
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We would view any partnership with Rockhopper negatively. Cairn adds value through exploration and has retained no field development expertise (particularly offshore). It would be better if it maintained its focus on exploration or returned all liquid assets to shareholders than pay a premium to get bogged down in a field development in a region of significant political risk.
BE
The share price currently reflects the value of its cash (215p) and Cairn India stake (112p) less 35p for ongoing G&A and exploration costs. We believe this is about right (PT unchanged at 280p). There appears to be nothing in the price for the value that could be monetised from a partial sale of Greenland but, while this offers upside, it does not appear sufficient to us to make us want to buy the shares. Any move to use resources for an acquisition of a significant development project would make the shares less attractive.
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So
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If the ST report was intended to run this idea up the flagpole ….
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… I think it’s fair to suggest it’s been run back down again.

The more big names getting involved the better for all Falklands companies. My guess is they are looking into the situation ahead of the southern drills, using RKH's show as an excuse to take a look at the whole set up there, for the southern drills are big enough to warrant a big name getting involved, if the SFB drills by BOR and FOGL strike oil.


www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article860553.ece

Texans fly into Falklands for Rockhopper talks
Ben Marlow and Danny Fortson

The Sunday Times Published: 22 January 2012

The American oil giant that partnered BP on the ill-fated Deepwater Horizon oil platform is considering a move on Rockhopper, the Falklands explorer. It is understood that a team of executives from Anadarko Petroleum, the $40 billion oil group, flew to the Falklands last week to meet.....................................

Late RNS.

GLG selling down, now below 5%

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201231813250431W

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GLG selling.

Credit Suisse selling other companies (to perhaps buy into a RKH placing).

Lots of PR going on.

Very low volume but the price moving up fast (being walked up).


Looks very possible that a placing could be on the cards, do a placing and raise money for 2013, either to spend alone or to put towards their costs after farm in.

Certainly a placing now looks very possible for RKH.

Yep, the North Falklands has been a flop really, but yes, it may change with the South Falklands Basin !!

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5i5NHnOp_4hTJtEiNAXIbNyCjLw_g?docId=N0148891327582666497A


Falklands oil probe 'disappointing'

(UKPA) – 22 hours ago

Initial oil exploration in waters around the Falkland Islands has been "disappointing", the Energy Secretary Chris Huhne has said.

In recent years, the UK has stepped up oil exploration in and around the Falklands, prompting Argentina to restate its claims to ownership of the islands.

Last month, this led to the implementation of an embargo by the Mercosur countries of Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil and Paraguay stopping ships sailing under the flag of the Falkland Islands from entering their ports.

Mr Huhne said oil may be found in the future after initial exploration efforts had been "disappointing".

He said: "It is indeed the case that there is exploration under way. Some of the initial exploration that was undertaken in territorial waters of the Falkland Islands was disappointing but that of course may change in the future."

His comments came after a question from Tory MP for Romford Andrew Rosindell. He said: "Have you made an assessment of the energy sources that may or may not be available in some of the British overseas territories? Particularly, I refer to the Falkland Islands."

I bet that it will not be a placing...too much money to raise .....a major just has to come in.....Prosels....how can you possibly say that RKH's find has been a flop....you look daft(sorry)....as for the other muppet who described it as such....

No, he is saying the North Falklands has been a flop.

ARG cannot raise money.

DES is a desaster.

RKH have made a find, but its not mega size.


Contrast that with the future.

South Falklands easy to raise money and 2 companies fully funded for 2 wells and both drilling monster targets........ so the future is potentially bright with the South, but the North has been disappointing, as he says.

except that RKH has found a decent amount of oil and no one at all has (yet) found other than ocean in the south - you always conveniently overlook that small matter

We can comment on that in September, after the drilling in the South.

Presently all the drilling in the north is finished. And RKH still cannot declare Sea Lion commercial, they hope it will be, but until they either farm out a big lump or do a massive fund raise - its non-commercial at the moment.

Nonsense.....

We can comment on that in September, after the drilling in the South.
that bit is at least true, but until such a time as there is cause to chortle, it behoves you to be considerably more circumspect in your prognostications, for a considerable amount of face and egg could easily collide

Dont know much about oil so its probably just as well I sold all of my FOGL in Nov 2009@ £1.34. What I do know is that moving a rig for a 60 day jaunt would pay off a chunk of the national debt. This would not be undertaken lightly and with great deal of confidence that it will produce results. I still have cocerns about the political issues taking into consideration that our forces have been decimated since the last set to down there a fact that would not gone unnoticed by those that would conspire against us.Me I think I will look at UK nursing homes as I may reap some benifit from one soon!!

We don't understand why all you guys are arguing the toss about whether the North or South Falkland Basins will be more successful or disappointing all should pray for a major find in either basin as that would ensure major oil companies will rush to farm in. The alternative is if the likes of Anadarko "go away" RKH may be left high and dry.

Nobody is going to say no to half a billion barrels....

rf so far no majors have said yes to farming into sealion, RKH'S only hope is that Anardarko make an offer, if they don't then back to square one. If BOR and/or FOGL make a significant find then it would encourage others to take the prospectivity of the Falkland Islands more seriously.

Absolutely stonking right halifax, thank god there's someone speaking sence.,.

Maybe Chris Huhne was saying that for the benefit of the Argentine , that its not worth getting all heated up about, by understating the true potential of it.

Halifax ; it's just a matter of time, and these things take a hell of a lot of preparation.....nobody just rushes into a huge contract without thought and all matters have to done with lawyers...contracts....etc...forget about the sabre-rattling from Argentina.....they're just fed up with us Brits finding oil.....Rockhopper have a superb find and their shareholders have to be very pleased...I know I am !..

Just doing some sums, lets see what happens.

RKH farm out 51% of Sea Lion to ANOTHER.

ANOTHER puts in 1.6 billion dollars.

RKH has to raise the remaining 0.4 billion dollars to the 2B development costs.


Sea Lion (lets be generous) has 450MMBO recoverable.

RKH then have 49%, which is 225 MMBO.

RKH issues another 80 million shares at 5US$ a pop to raise the 400 million US$ but also needs 2012/3 exploration funds, so actually issues 120 million shares at 5 US$ a pop.


RKH then has 225 MMBO share and shares in issue of 405 million.


225MMBO x 10US$ = 1.433 billion pounds.

1.433 billion pounds divided by 405 million shares = 353p


So it makes sense as to why the share price is running out of steam around the 350p level pending what happens next. With development funds sorted 10US$ in the ground, fair enough.

The EV value given to BOR and FOGL is small considering the amount of prospective resources they have, in which case any EV value to RKH must be much smaller as they have much much less prospective resources to chase after.