From Cazenova just now .... DYOR .... but quick :)

WPP - upgrade to OUTPERFORM - interims due 26 Aug which we expect to be strong, reflecting gd Q2 fig's already reported by peers. We see potential for EPS upgrades of up to 5%-10% N/T (combination of top line, margin & US$). L/T we expect EPS growth of up to 17%-18% pa before maturing at 11%-12% pa. Key risks are (1) further M&A (2) prem valuation (17.1x 06 EPS before any upgrade), representing a 31% prem to UK mkt & 33% to UK media sector. Despite this we still believe it has room to outperform. Our DCF valuation gives 760p, 28% upside from here.

Here's a preview of what is going to appear in The Business tomorrow:

October 02, 2005



SIR Martin Sorrells WPP has underperformed its main agency rival Publicis by 10% this year and as a result now trades on lower valuations than all of its peer group.

This is interesting at a time when growth looks set to accelerate over the next three years at a top line level and enhanced by more margin benefits from the integration of Grey Global.

Agencies are well placed, and have the benefit of two secular trends.

Firstly, there is strong growth in global advertising, with an accent on south-east Asia and those markets associated with China in particular.

Secondly, there is strong growth in internet related advertising compared to traditional media. Of the big agencies, WPP has the highest exposure to both.

In addition, WPP has momentum in its business. In the first half results net new billings rose by $3.5bn, with $1.9bn in the second quarter alone, from clients such as Time Warner, Shell and Sony.

WPPs management now presents its analysis of the industry as advertising working in four-year cycles.

It is interesting to note chief executive Sir Martin Sorrells view on the current cycle: 2004 marked the full recovery from the internet bust of 2000.

It was WPPs best year ever. 2005 is showing more improvement and in theory it is the weakest year of the 2005-08 period.

This is because 2006 sees the mid-term United States congressional elections, the World cup and the Winter Olympics.

The big year, 2008, has the Beijing Olympics and the European football championships.

Obviously there are risks. Investors are perennially concerned about the outlook for consumer-based advertising and a slowdown in the global economy in general, affecting the spending intentions of WPPs clients.

In addition, there is pressure on pricing across the industry from powerful clients now scrutinising the purchase of marketing services more closely.

But the powerful industry trends leading to accelerating growth, combined with a discount valuation, should ensure that WPP is a company worth keeping a close eye on in the next 18 months.

poor neglected WPP!
Today's figures were really quite good and, from memory, Merrill repeated its buy recommendation.
Though sp is very close to the 52-week high, i think i MAY concur but would appreciate views from others

been in this for a while spread betting this is a dead cert as far as u can say that as we all know things can go wrong !! but brokers rec 7.70 but no interest it seems on here

when cash gets tight, advertising budgets get squeezed .... though WPP has already fallen quite a long way, there could easily be more downside

chart sure indicates that, unlike the header's view, WPP is worth a lot LESS!
if someone has last week's Shares Mag, i think WPP may have had a mention in there.
If so, please can you publish comment here

never did short WPP at the time, but with sp teasing down through 25 dma, this may not be a bad time to do so

have decided it's quite a good bet and acted accordingly, not just because the markets are weak, but because traditional advertising is coming under ever greater pressure from the internet and, as already stated, in tight times, advertising is the first area to be cut

WPP figures are out tomorrow and i know somewhere reckoned they would be good and there may arguably a bonus courtesy of the Olympics ..... however, as i mentioned above, in a recession, advertising is one of the first casualties and traditional advertising, the backbone of WPP, is coming under ever-increasing pressure from the internet

WPP's trading forecast rather than the historic will be what drives sp tomorrow

That may well be the case but WPP have a big presence in Asia and the US and advertising is expected to hold up with the olympics and the presidential race. I have no doubt that you are right in the long run but not convinced it will hit next years earnings to take a hit in the results tomorrow

That peak in 2007 780p was for the 2008 oympics.take your money. NEXT peak will be 2011 for 2012 oympics.

we'll know who is right and who is wrong early tomorrow!

Im the nervous one. Not comfortable to be on the opposite side of a legend like cynic. I sense some pain coming, fortunately only 5 quid a point so hopefully it wont hurt that much, although running losses in Oil shorts now well in the thousands so it hasnt been the best of months and the losses are still mounting

i'm just a legendary tosser! .... having seen the headline, it very much looks that you were right and i wrong

Not at all your more right than wrong. re WPP ive given up anticipating the mkt but the results did look good

anyway, have closed my short as on balance, i think the analyst comment will be more positive than not ..... suffered a modest loss, but much less than i feared and certainly only half what it would have been just a day or two ago

it looks like we are both out of the money as loosing on the spread. As far a things go its a none event

hindsight says i should have left that short running, though common sense prevailed!

certainly not looking too good at the moment. I came in on Friday night and found it had turned red. You cant beat the market, ill keep the long open until the end of March and hope it will bounce back.

dangerous logic in today's markets .... just as i deemed it prudent to cut my short when it seemed to be going the wrong way after the results, suggest you watch very carefully indeed and jump ship as necessary

Its oil im worried about . One of my shorts on brent is at 98 dollars ..It is defying the laws of gravity