anyone got any ideas about the block trades that went through today?

website: http://www.sterlingenergyplc.com/



weather: www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084938.shtml?50wind120

Look.

It's not the right time, but as I follow this Company so closely, I am taking a few shares on board.

Buy now, buy later it really is irrelevant and it will qualify what I think of the Company.

It's a good one.

I will still research and post everything that I see as needing public knowledge for shareholders, good or bad.

I intend fully paid up so I will be on thew company Register again.

I think since fido challenged me, quite unfairly, so of his mud has stuck and this is a way of demonstrating that I like the Company without qualification.

So, here I am and to stay whatever.

This is written without checking as I am currently short on time.

Andy / SWW . .... notr quite sure why you think SEY is still a good bet, or do you both feel that all the bad news or downgrading Ching + possible duster are already discounted?

Nice to have you back on board sww. Keep up the good work.

cynic - as I have always said, this share is about Madagascar, short and simple.

Chinguetti downgrade is in the sp imo as Sterling went to great lengths to tell it how they saw it in the Interims which dealt with 50% IIRC.

In respect of the possibility of a duster at Theran -1, I would say that's a certainty by now.

Madagascar blocks adjoin those owned by Vanco and Exxon , Exxon are promoting Madagascar as highly promising, so this is not for now, for me, it's for later.

I think there is a good chance that Chinguetti will be further downgraded and I see that between the lines from Huntley.

The question is, how much?

Will it affect the sp?

Well the answer is yes but it will recover sooner than Hardmans would have done.

Frankly unless something big is found in th GOM, and unless Chinguetti gets a full face lift which is not likely, then Sterling need a diversification for revenue.

I do not believe they have money to throw around on new prospects or takeovers, more likely they are minding the reduced revenue from Chinguetti so that they can deal with those that they have to develop within the terms of licenses.

Does that answer your question cynic?

I thought you were in here too?

i am but maybe not for much longer

cynic - this stock can try the patience of a saint.

I am facinated by it all the same.

I am also looking at GTL with a view to being greedy by the way.

Same timescale as here, and as interesting a stock except they don't rely on drilling holes just a good harvest of corn and no tornados.

Of course GTL will need a fund raise whereas Sterling won't.

Well that's it, deed done.

Anyone want to see the Contract Note when it arrives?

won't try mine any longer ..... i'm out!

Were you in long?

long enough

I see

Did you get greedy for GTL?

I did.

didn't add any more, nor to my DOO holding

High volume increase today, news on the way?

Interesting piece of news from a fellow oiler in Kurdistan.


Click HERE

Indeed. Andy, where are SEY's interests relative to Tawke - adjacent or further afield. Ignorant of the geology of that part of the world (as of any other pretty much!). Your knowledge would be appreciated.

Stockdog,

AT the AGM they did not disclose the are of interest, but HW said the exploration areas are easily definable, and they had never seen such obvious targets.

http://www.woodside.com.au/NR/rdonlyres/CB3976F6-5327-41CC-8006-339618369209/0/IanFraserAfrica.pdf

I suupose this is no surprise but the reseves are 50% lower and then some, less than expected.

As to wether or not they increase once further development wells have been drilled, we will have to wait and see.

Here is Hardman's biut for continuity.

"OPERATOR UPDATE ON CHINGUETTI RESERVES (MAURITANIA)
Hardman notes that the Chinguetti field operator, Woodside, has today provided in a
presentation to investors an update on the Chinguetti field (Hardman 19.008%), including an
interim update of Chinguetti field reserves.
The operators estimate of proven and probable reserves for the Chinguetti field of 53 mmbbls is
consistent with the estimate provided by the Independent Technical Expert for the purposes of
the Scheme of Arrangement for the acquisition of Hardman by Tullow Oil plc and included within
Hardmans Explanatory Memorandum to shareholders dated 14 November 2006.
Hardman will provide additional information on the results of the operators reserves review for
Chinguetti when that review is made available to the joint venture.

Chinguetti link.

123.1 minus 77.0=46.1
46.1 divided by 123.1% = 37% decline.
Much better than Sterlings own estimate of 43% and ROC`s 50%.


Even when I look at the figures I still think that there is an element of positioning going on. When the problems with Ching first surfaced, Woodside stated that the amount of oil in place had not changed and that it was just a case of it being harder to get it out of the ground.They went on to say that because of the high oil price it was still very profitable to do the extra work needed to get the field back up to maximum production and that every effort would be made to do the infill wells asap, if not sooner.
What we have seen since is a willingness to downgrade recoverable reserves and infill wells drilled at a leisurley pace. Whereas before it was a case of doing whatever it took to restore production (like yesterday), now after the first remedial well in a few weeks we will have a long evaluation of the 4D before the remaining remedial wells are drilled in late 2007.
During this long time of evaluation of the 4D we will also have discussions on Tevet, Tiof and other licences. One would expect them to exploit the problems of Ching to get a better deal on future developements, and having secured a better deal I would not be surprised to find that remedial work had been successful with rising production. In many cases, as a field becomes better known by the operator,you find that recoverable figures are increased and that is what I think will happen at Ching.
Either way, the remedial work will be at no cost to Sterling. Sterling may even benifit if as seems likely Tevet and Tiof are tied back to Ching. In effect it will mean greater production over a longer period and in cashflow terms it will be highly benificial to Sterling as and when the uncertainty is overcome.
As for the 37% decline in recoverables, whether this is a true reflection or not, it is a lot better than the 43% figure Sterling gave and certainly a lot better than ROC`s 50% figure. This then is the start of greater certainty over Ching and is probably the reason that we have seen a gentle uplift in the SP. The market hates uncertainty and now knows that the remedial actions at Ching are on course.
As I said before, Ching is the cashcow. It is the projects that will be funded by this cashflow that are important and will be the making of Sterling. Notice in my post on DNO how they are only too happy to increase their costs for an increased in their interest. This all bodes well for Sterlings interests in the area and will be the reason why they go it alone. Their excitement about Kurdistan is going to translate into maximum gain for the company and its shareholders.

SWW,

Thanks for posting that, very informative, and as Fido states, much better then the current SEY worst case scenario.


Fido,

An interesting post, and I too have wondered for some time whether a game is being played by the Chinguetti JV partners, and at whose expense?

SOme of the ROC RNS releases seem to have come at a bad time for the SEY shareprice, and I wondered whether they were deliberate, or simply coincidental.
Of course, and bad news is normally bad for the SP, but some of their releases did seem to come at a bad time allt he same.

Alternatively, maybe the JV are playing down the prospects with the Mauritanians for some reason?

Like you say, the urgency for the remedial work SEEMS to have gone, (IMO) or maybe they have realised they need much more time to study the seismic to resolve the issue?