anyone got any ideas about the block trades that went through today?

website: http://www.sterlingenergyplc.com/



weather: www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084938.shtml?50wind120

Stockdog,

AT the AGM they did not disclose the are of interest, but HW said the exploration areas are easily definable, and they had never seen such obvious targets.

http://www.woodside.com.au/NR/rdonlyres/CB3976F6-5327-41CC-8006-339618369209/0/IanFraserAfrica.pdf

I suupose this is no surprise but the reseves are 50% lower and then some, less than expected.

As to wether or not they increase once further development wells have been drilled, we will have to wait and see.

Here is Hardman's biut for continuity.

"OPERATOR UPDATE ON CHINGUETTI RESERVES (MAURITANIA)
Hardman notes that the Chinguetti field operator, Woodside, has today provided in a
presentation to investors an update on the Chinguetti field (Hardman 19.008%), including an
interim update of Chinguetti field reserves.
The operators estimate of proven and probable reserves for the Chinguetti field of 53 mmbbls is
consistent with the estimate provided by the Independent Technical Expert for the purposes of
the Scheme of Arrangement for the acquisition of Hardman by Tullow Oil plc and included within
Hardmans Explanatory Memorandum to shareholders dated 14 November 2006.
Hardman will provide additional information on the results of the operators reserves review for
Chinguetti when that review is made available to the joint venture.

Chinguetti link.

123.1 minus 77.0=46.1
46.1 divided by 123.1% = 37% decline.
Much better than Sterlings own estimate of 43% and ROC`s 50%.


Even when I look at the figures I still think that there is an element of positioning going on. When the problems with Ching first surfaced, Woodside stated that the amount of oil in place had not changed and that it was just a case of it being harder to get it out of the ground.They went on to say that because of the high oil price it was still very profitable to do the extra work needed to get the field back up to maximum production and that every effort would be made to do the infill wells asap, if not sooner.
What we have seen since is a willingness to downgrade recoverable reserves and infill wells drilled at a leisurley pace. Whereas before it was a case of doing whatever it took to restore production (like yesterday), now after the first remedial well in a few weeks we will have a long evaluation of the 4D before the remaining remedial wells are drilled in late 2007.
During this long time of evaluation of the 4D we will also have discussions on Tevet, Tiof and other licences. One would expect them to exploit the problems of Ching to get a better deal on future developements, and having secured a better deal I would not be surprised to find that remedial work had been successful with rising production. In many cases, as a field becomes better known by the operator,you find that recoverable figures are increased and that is what I think will happen at Ching.
Either way, the remedial work will be at no cost to Sterling. Sterling may even benifit if as seems likely Tevet and Tiof are tied back to Ching. In effect it will mean greater production over a longer period and in cashflow terms it will be highly benificial to Sterling as and when the uncertainty is overcome.
As for the 37% decline in recoverables, whether this is a true reflection or not, it is a lot better than the 43% figure Sterling gave and certainly a lot better than ROC`s 50% figure. This then is the start of greater certainty over Ching and is probably the reason that we have seen a gentle uplift in the SP. The market hates uncertainty and now knows that the remedial actions at Ching are on course.
As I said before, Ching is the cashcow. It is the projects that will be funded by this cashflow that are important and will be the making of Sterling. Notice in my post on DNO how they are only too happy to increase their costs for an increased in their interest. This all bodes well for Sterlings interests in the area and will be the reason why they go it alone. Their excitement about Kurdistan is going to translate into maximum gain for the company and its shareholders.

SWW,

Thanks for posting that, very informative, and as Fido states, much better then the current SEY worst case scenario.


Fido,

An interesting post, and I too have wondered for some time whether a game is being played by the Chinguetti JV partners, and at whose expense?

SOme of the ROC RNS releases seem to have come at a bad time for the SEY shareprice, and I wondered whether they were deliberate, or simply coincidental.
Of course, and bad news is normally bad for the SP, but some of their releases did seem to come at a bad time allt he same.

Alternatively, maybe the JV are playing down the prospects with the Mauritanians for some reason?

Like you say, the urgency for the remedial work SEEMS to have gone, (IMO) or maybe they have realised they need much more time to study the seismic to resolve the issue?

Andy - to take up your point about the Mauritanians.

They took the JVP to the edge in respect of royalty agreements, as most Countries seem to be doing here and there, and it cost all of the JVP sp prices production and cash bonuses.

Chinguetti also had it produced over 75kbopd, would have meant that the Government would have been entitled to another 4%.

Sterling of course would have funded that if the Government could not have covered it, so Sterling are the odd ones out in respect of the JVP, and disinformation is sometimes as easy to pass than correct information.

Who has the hand on the valves which control the oil flow?

Woodside.

Who has the most to gain or lose by increased production?

Woodside.

As operators could they have brought Hardman to their knees?

Yes.(imho)

Did they?

Don't know.

Could they do the same to Sterling?

No, because of the free carry quotient, but they can restrict that royalty to the Government and Sterling.

Would they do any of this?

Any Company is capable of anything in my opinion as to whether they would, we have to think about that and try to arrive at an answer.

Just going to post then run an edit over this as I don't want to make any flalse allegations.

Andy,
There was talk that Woodside and Hardman were battling for supremacy in Oz, and that they did not make them good bedfellows. Woodside would have known that Hardmans licence commitments were based on 75,000 bopd production and any decrease in production would have caused Hardman problems. Need I say more except that there is no fact in my statement and it is merely my opinion as to possible events.

Sww, Fido,

Some interesting points, and I think some elements of truth in there, as I have long suspected a bit of fun and games between the partners, and Woodsire and Hardman have had a legal spat in Australia, so clearly some friction there.

RNS just out, Louisianna well non economic, other updates are interesting, and a NEW low risk onshore field in Texas investment, spudding soon!
======================================================

Sterling Energy PLC
16 November 2006




16 November 2006

STERLING ENERGY PLC
('Sterling' or the 'Company')

OPERATING UPDATE



Sterling Energy plc, the AIM listed oil & gas exploration & production company
operating in the Gulf of Mexico and Africa, today provides an update on its
activities since the publication on 19 September 2006 of its Interim Results.



Mauritania



Sterling notes the presentation by Woodside, operator of the Chinguetti field,
made today, which gave an interim reserves update for proven, probable and
contingent resources of 77 million bbls. Of this total, 53 million bbls were
proven and probable reserves ('2P'). In addition to an infill well by the end of
2006, a 4D seismic survey is planned for 2007 and a programme of infill wells in
late 2007. It also highlighted the high resolution 3D seismic work planned for
2007 on the Tiof field, in which Sterling has a royalty interest, and the
concept of a tie-back into Chinguetti facilities with a possible capacity of
50,000 bpd. Chinguetti field production since mid-year has been in the range of
27,000-35,000 bopd.

In its 2006 half-year report, Sterling had used a provisional estimate of 2P
field reserves of 80 million barrels ('bbls'), based on a 4 phase development of
the field. These estimates will be formally reviewed again at the time of
publication of the annual results for 2006, in light of further information
gained over the coming months. For the development potential of Phases 2
onwards, key data will be obtained from the drilling of the well planned for
December. The planned 4D seismic will make it possible to have a much better
picture of the ultimate potential recoverable reserves of the Chinguetti field.


Under the provisions of the Funding Agreement, Sterling's cash flow continues to
reflect its priority of recovering development costs paid by it, through cost
oil production.



Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast



Production in the third quarter averaged 8.6 mmcfged, compared with 8.5 mmcfged
in the first half of 2006. Shut-ins owing to the pipeline repairs on Gryphon and
the planned upgrade at Mustang Island areas, held back production. Energy prices
have been lower than in the first half. Gas accounts for some 80% of US
production and gas prices to date in the second half have generally ranged
between $5.5 and $7.25 per mcf, recently moving over $8 per mcf with the early
onset of colder conditions.



In line with the strategy of increasing its exposure onshore, Sterling has
executed a letter of intent to participate in a 25 well Austin Chalk horizontal
well programme in the central Gulf coast region of Texas. Sterling will
participate for 25-55% working interest ('WI') in this low risk, infill drilling
in existing fields. Based on an independent consultants report, it exposes
Sterling to 11 bcfge of net proven and 14 bcfge of net possible reserves. At the
end of June 2006, Sterling's 2P USA reserves were over 50 bcfge. With an
expected early December completion, this will immediately add approximately 4+
bcfge to proven reserves. With an initial outlay for the lease purchases and the
first three wells of approximately $9.5 million, this programme is thereafter
expected to be self-funding. Sterling has a 55% WI in the initial test well,
which is expected to spud in mid-December. The programme projects that wells
will be drilled continuously thereafter on a 90 day basis and Sterling can elect
on its participation on a well-by-well basis.



The Matagorda Island 520 SE/4 # 4 ST was successfully re-completed in September,
increasing net production from 1 mcfgd to 500 mcfgd. Sterling has a 59.5% net
revenue interest in the well.



At Mustang Island in the Western Gulf, Sterling has completed early, a $4.8
million upgrade of its pipeline and processing facilities to accommodate
increased third party production, commencing shortly. Sterling paid $0.25
million of the costs of these upgrades, the remainder being paid by a third
party user. This work has resulted in periods of shut-in of the system to
accommodate this work. Sterling's transportation and processing revenues are
expected to double to over $2.6 million per annum and it will enable an
extension of the life of some of its wells.



Sterling recently participated with a 22.25% working interest ('WI') in the
Davis Petroleum Corp. - #1 Trahan. The well found productive pay but reserves
have now been deemed uneconomic.

Sterling has farmed out its interest in the High Island 52 Field (50% WI),
subject to the drilling of a well in Q1 2007. This farmout excludes Sterling's
royalty interest in the Gryphon wells located in the NE quadrant of High Island
52, which have been generating in excess of $0.5 million net per month. Sterling
will receive cash of $0.3 million if no well is drilled or it is not commercial.
In the event of any development, it will have a 2.75% ORRI and will be relieved
of the field abandonment costs, which exceed $2 million net.

Abandonment operations are underway on High Island A-68/83 where production
ceased in 2003. Seven wells are being plugged and decommissioning of the
existing platforms will take place in 2007.

The non-operated Galveston 303 #7 well is drilling earlier than expected.
Sterling has a 17.3% WI in this 10,873 foot well to capture 1 bcf of net
reserves. The well is expected to reach total depth in late-November.

The higher potential drilling is expected to start in late November, on the
North Theall Heirs #1 exploratory well located onshore south Louisiana. Sterling
has a 34% WI in this high risk 15,000 foot well, targeting a net 10-30 bcfge.



Preparation also continues on the Thunder Stud prospect in south Louisiana (15%
WI). This is Sterling's first onshore operated well, targeting deep reserves
(18,000 feet) in excess of 20 bcfge net. Drilling is expected to start in late
December.


Active programme and seeking acquisitions

Chief Executive, Harry Wilson, said:

'Our cash balance, currently over $50 million, continues to increase, supported
by liftings from Chinguetti and production in the Gulf of Mexico. Activity over
the next year remains at a high level. We have joined an onshore US infill well
programme, which will commence in December, adding to our reserves and
production. We keenly await the results of the next Chinguetti well due to spud
shortly and of the 3 largely carried exploration wells in West Africa and 3 in
the USA due by the end of the first half of 2007. We continue to seek further
profitable and value adding assets'.

Enquiries

Sterling Energy (+44 (0)1582 462 121) Web site:
www.sterlingenergyplc.com

Harry Wilson
Graeme Thomson

Citigate Dewe Rogerson (+44 (0)20 7638 9571)
Media enquiries: Martin Jackson
Analyst enquiries: Nina Soon

This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

It's a good update and puts quite a but back in the drawers that we have taken out to see what was goping on inside.

I sense disagreement btn Sterling and Woodside.

SWW,

I always wondered if SEY put Woodside's nose out of joint with the agrrement with the Mauritanian government?

Some large buys after the bell today!


16/11/06 17:04 18.714 800,124 O 17.5 17.75 Buy
16/11/06 17:01 18.68 949,816 O 17.5 17.75 Buy
16/11/06 16:38 18.596 2,291,675 O 17.5 17.75 Buy
16/11/06 16:37 18.5 1,000,000 WT 17.5 17.75 Buy
16/11/06 16:36 17.75 130,675 O 17.5 17.75 Buy
16/11/06 16:36 17.75 6,954 O 17.5 17.75 Buy

I also sense not much till Chinguetti gets sorted, but I did read the bit about profitable assets they are seeking.

Hmmm.............

Who?

or

What?

Sterling Energy to review Chinguetti reserve estimates
AFX


LONDON (AFX) - Sterling Energy PLC has said it will review its estimates of proved and probable reserves at the Chinguetti field in Mauritania in its annual results statement following a report by Woodside, the field's operator.

In an operational update the AIM-listed gas and oil company noted that Woodside's interim reserves update said there were 53 mln barrels of proven and probable reserves at the field. However in its 2006 half-year report Sterling used a provisional estimate of 80 mln barrels of proven and probable reserves.

Sterling said the planned 4D seismic survey at the field will make it possible to have a much better picture of the ultimate potential recoverable reserves at the field. Sterling has an interest in Chinguetti through a funding agreement with the Mauritanian government and a farm-in arrangement with Premier Oil.

Sterling also announced that it has joined an onshore US infill well programme, which will start in December. It said three largely carried explorations wells in West Africa and 3 in the USA are due to spud by the end of the first half of 2007.

have been out of this stock for several months and have not really followed, but if you look at the chart below, you will see that sp has just dropped through 50 dma, which is scarcely encouraging ...... looks to be support around 17.

Thanks cynic.

Small is beautiful.

Well that's what she says anyway.

I don't see her point.

I'm sure she does when I not looking.

Rude I call it but what can you do?

Charts, Shmarts. They have their place 'n all but surely SEY has more going for it (cash, prospects, mgmnt) than a couple of lines on a graph. All IMO of course.

queen ..... i merely passed comment as i was requested .... for myself, i see no reason to re-invest at this time

queen1 - I asked for it and the comments, I came out with gobbledygook to cover my thoughts, however I will now post them.

I agree with cynics view 100%.

I have already said I did.

I have no doubt you are very familiar with my varying degrees of pessimism based on my research and assessments of Sterling.

Nothing has changed, in fact the Management have confirmed my thoughts with their update.

The only thing that is interesting in respect of Sterling is Madagascar in my book and that is now 12 months away plus.

You can't sell the Management and prospects remain prospects until drilled.

They may have $50mUSD and rising, how many shares are there?

1402950000 according to figures here.

You get a fraction of a US cent per share in fact 0.356cents cash for each share.

Of course the revenue will keep coming in, but at what rate?

Wait and see.

Chief Executive, Harry Wilson, said:

'Our cash balance, currently over $50 million, continues to increase, supported
by lifting from Chinguetti and production in the Gulf of Mexico. Activity over
the next year remains at a high level........................

Great, but the money seems to be spoken for, lets hope they are not overstretched like Hardman are.

I have to ask myself why I bothered buying back in here recently?

Meantime there is a pretty head and shoulders forming on the chart, the right shoulder is almost complete, so the time to invest is not now.

Charting School

Of course I could be wrong but read over on ADVFN, a number of long termer's are cutting, have cut or or run.

We can't all be wrong.

All imo and dyor etc.

sww .... thanks m8; same conclusion from different angles, though i happily admit yours is based more on research than mine ..... the markets aren't always clairvoyant, but it is amazing how often they are .... this is the reason why it often pays to buy shares that are rocketing (for good reason rather than hype), and to avoid those that are plummeting (until they perhaps find solid foundation at a much lower level)

cynic, thanks, I will understand that one day.

It a good philosophy if I can apply it.

I am finding that I need to do less research otherwise I am prone to knee jerk reactions.

In respect of Sterling, I definitely know too much about this Company and therefore am aware of the possible pitfalls.

That makes me see them happening when probably they are not if you understand what I am trying to say.

Sterling is heavily dependant on Chinguetti being a success, and currently it's not that's a fact.

That's why the sp is where it is.

i see no reason to buy either ..... much happier with TLW and BUR, though I am getting a bit bored with that one so may cut at least part of my holding ...... oil prices are currently heading sharply south too, along with other commdotiy prices ..... ergo, not really the right sectors to be in, unless there are specific situations - e.g. questionably/arguably GOO and CHP

Currently I do not hold any mining stocks either, though it just may be that gold (precious metals) may buck the general commdoity malaise.

The indices (Dow and FTSE) make interesting punts at the moment, though they can be a bit scary ...... Stops work fine, but of course can annoyingly cut in prematurely

Posted by emptyend on TMF

Starts:- Interesting to read the FT comment today on oil prices!.....

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a00ddb1a-76a9-11db-8284-0000779e2340.html

"US crude prices dropped below $55 a barrel yesterday, their lowest level for 17 months, as anxiety and weakness spread across the commodities complex this week."

....ie across the very liquid contacts which the hedge funds and others had mainly been speculating on.....

"False rumours that crude storage facilities at Cushing in Louisiana, the delivery point for the West Texas Intermediate contract, were full, triggered selling on Thursday. The rumours underlined market concerns about excessive levels of US crude stocks and selling was also encouraged by concerns about mild winter weather in the northern hemisphere."

You know what I think?.....plain, straightforward market manipulation games between investment banks and hedge funds, ahead of a contract expiry! Obviously someone somewhere was a forced seller of the Dec contract in some size - and IMO someone somewhere else worked out that they could short the market profitably by manipulating it [via a combination of large shorts and false rumours] over a couple of days. Standard investment banking tricks - when they think they can get away with such things [which they usually can, of course, because the wholesale markets are "consenting adults" markets - assuming one ignores collateral damage elsewhere] ends

HTH to understand what's happening to oil prices this week gone.