.

We can comment on that in September, after the drilling in the South.
that bit is at least true, but until such a time as there is cause to chortle, it behoves you to be considerably more circumspect in your prognostications, for a considerable amount of face and egg could easily collide

Dont know much about oil so its probably just as well I sold all of my FOGL in Nov 2009@ £1.34. What I do know is that moving a rig for a 60 day jaunt would pay off a chunk of the national debt. This would not be undertaken lightly and with great deal of confidence that it will produce results. I still have cocerns about the political issues taking into consideration that our forces have been decimated since the last set to down there a fact that would not gone unnoticed by those that would conspire against us.Me I think I will look at UK nursing homes as I may reap some benifit from one soon!!

We don't understand why all you guys are arguing the toss about whether the North or South Falkland Basins will be more successful or disappointing all should pray for a major find in either basin as that would ensure major oil companies will rush to farm in. The alternative is if the likes of Anadarko "go away" RKH may be left high and dry.

Nobody is going to say no to half a billion barrels....

rf so far no majors have said yes to farming into sealion, RKH'S only hope is that Anardarko make an offer, if they don't then back to square one. If BOR and/or FOGL make a significant find then it would encourage others to take the prospectivity of the Falkland Islands more seriously.

Absolutely stonking right halifax, thank god there's someone speaking sence.,.

Maybe Chris Huhne was saying that for the benefit of the Argentine , that its not worth getting all heated up about, by understating the true potential of it.

Halifax ; it's just a matter of time, and these things take a hell of a lot of preparation.....nobody just rushes into a huge contract without thought and all matters have to done with lawyers...contracts....etc...forget about the sabre-rattling from Argentina.....they're just fed up with us Brits finding oil.....Rockhopper have a superb find and their shareholders have to be very pleased...I know I am !..

Just doing some sums, lets see what happens.

RKH farm out 51% of Sea Lion to ANOTHER.

ANOTHER puts in 1.6 billion dollars.

RKH has to raise the remaining 0.4 billion dollars to the 2B development costs.


Sea Lion (lets be generous) has 450MMBO recoverable.

RKH then have 49%, which is 225 MMBO.

RKH issues another 80 million shares at 5US$ a pop to raise the 400 million US$ but also needs 2012/3 exploration funds, so actually issues 120 million shares at 5 US$ a pop.


RKH then has 225 MMBO share and shares in issue of 405 million.


225MMBO x 10US$ = 1.433 billion pounds.

1.433 billion pounds divided by 405 million shares = 353p


So it makes sense as to why the share price is running out of steam around the 350p level pending what happens next. With development funds sorted 10US$ in the ground, fair enough.

The EV value given to BOR and FOGL is small considering the amount of prospective resources they have, in which case any EV value to RKH must be much smaller as they have much much less prospective resources to chase after.

Well reasoned out I have to say.....not sure about the placing...might be smaller than that.......that might come later..when another rig is worked out....

.miss post

Probably going to try to stop (short term anyway) RKH from moving any further, to deter any farm in interest.

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/07/cristina-fernandez-expected-to-make-major-announcement-on-falklands-and-oil

.

Much ado about nothing, she did not even attempt to cancel the weekly flight from Chile.

The major announcement seems to be that she is not happy and very very frustrated and unable to do anything, therefore she is going to lump the problem on the UN (eg I am deflecting all Argentines to look to the UN who already are very clear on the Falklands and will do nothing) and then can walk away from this little hot pot and her ramping statements about getting them back which she used to get elected and stopped people looking at the terrible economic conditions in which they now live - and can now sit back and point at the UN being useless and not her as BOR and FOGL drill for oil and RKH try to farm out.

EG, looks like she has given up for now - and can you blame her. State of the art T45 destroyer there, nuclear submarine, planes and soldiers - no chance for invasion - US interest in Falklands assets, BOR and FOGL drilling, RKH farming out - everything moving ahead fast - does she want to be seen being the leader that let this all happen after telling her people she would get them back in 2012 ? or is she going to be super slippery now and deflect it all over to the UN by talking about their involvement............... I'll let you guess.

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/02/17/uk-analysts-says-falklands-oil-industry-could-be-worth-180-billion-dollars-in-royalties-and-taxes


"............According to Reynolds the Southern Basin is totally unexplored but the largest prospect in that basin, Loligo (being targeted by FOGL), contains estimated resources of 4,700 million barrels, making it the largest drill target anywhere in the world in 2012 and over ten times the size of the estimated gross 448 million barrels discovered to date at Sea Lion.

But, according to Reynolds there is more to be had in the Falklands than just a speculative punt on exploration drilling.

“The Falklands offers a bit of everything for investors at the moment,” she said.

“Rockhopper provides relatively low-risk development upside, while FOGL is the most compelling of the exploration plays, although Borders and Southern remains very attractive”.

The analyst also says that while Desire Petroleum and Argos Resources are less attractive at the moment, with no near-term activity, both companies could still benefit from regional euphoria in the event of 2012 discoveries."

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/1038/edison-investment-research-talks-about-the-increase-in-interest-surrounding-the-falkland-oil-story-1038.html

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NO OFFERS SO FAR THEN !!



Rockhopper Exploration: Your questions answered
By Stephen McDowell | Mon, 27/02/2012 - 11:36

There is a lot of weight on the shoulders of Rockhopper Exploration (RKH).

All the investors in the Falklands Basin and the companies who own and explore the area are waiting on the eagerly awaiting results of Rockhopper’s farm-out.

Who will it be? Bound to be big. Which company is big enough? American? British? Russian?

Just have a look at the Rockhopper discussion board for more opinions than a room full of economists.

But, as has been often quoted at the North American Prospect Expo (NAPE) in Houston, when you get one big oil company you get a rush of them.

The rumour mill is spinning at such high velocity it threatens to throw its arms off

"Rockhopper exploration director Dave Bodecott is unfazed: "We’re up for that," he says.

"Guess all you like," he adds bluntly, "It could be anyone. But until we’ve had an offer for the farm out it’s dreamland. The process is ongoing and there’s no offer. It’s still with databank advisers Merrill Lynch."

Bodecott remains stoic under pressure. He will, no doubt sensibly, not be drawn by the fusillade of questions our users have fired at him.

"I want to be as helpful as I can to our shareholders but I can’t add anything to the information that is on the website and the presentation I made here yesterday. It’s all there if you look."

In fairness, most of the questions from Interactive Investor users are unanswerable if Bodecott was to remain inside the rules of the stockmarket.

It’s just that you all want to know. And he knows that, too. Nonetheless, he tackled some:

Interactive Investor user question: I would like to know about the recent 3D survey. Rockhopper, withArgos (), surveyed a substantial area to the north of Licence 32. Are there any preliminary indications of new prospects in these areas, and are Rockhopper interested in expanding their acreage footprint?

Bodecott: "That data was acquired because it covered the North side of Johnson (far north of the plot - Licence 32). We are getting in all the data on seismic and have only had a fast-track so far and are still interpreting all the data."

Interactive Investor user: What date that the CPR is expected on?

Bodecott: "We have said the end of March. Easter is the first week of April so I suppose Easter-ish."

Interactive Investor user: Are they on target to deliver the CPR and hopeful of a farm in (he means out) by the end of the first quarter i.e March as per previous RNS?

Bodecott: "Yes."

There you are then, Paul.

"Look," Bodecott says again bluntly, "It is their right to ask and we will do the best we can for the company and for the shareholders as we have always done from day one.

"Come on, they’ve done quite well so far. It is really nice to have their support. Over the years we have done loads of farming in and farming out. When you are farming out you are selling and the deal we will get depends on the hunger that’s out there.

"We are not a complicated company. Our situation is entirely obvious. The geology is simple, the recovery is simple. It’s all simple."

The major issue for any small company is access to money. That’s things like NAPE exist and that’s why we are here.

Like every other Falklands-watcher in this increasingly fascinating investment game, Bodecott remains puzzled as to the behaviour of the share price of small oil and gas explorers.

"The really depressing thing for us is when you have a find and the share price goes down. There’s nothing you can do. Then again, that's why I’m a geologist."

RKH down again, but BOR and FOGL up strongly.

Looks like the move of cash north to south is starting.

FOGL farm in news should be soon, followed by the BOR result - whilst everyone in RKH still awaits news as well, but looks like many are jumping off given the price weakness.

I would imagine lots of RKH holders will be selling today and looking to load up with FOGL and BOR.

Some drop in first 15 mins!!!

CPR expected to confirm more oil?

Panic no farm-out sorted yet?

Selling to Buy BOR/FOGL?

All of the above?

More upside in DES now and FOGL and I suppose BOR....last one risky of course....