i'm buying on the blips

16 Nov: DLAR - UBS reiterates: Neutral - TP: 975p unchanged
after recent trading update.

Interims on 27 Nov.

26 Nov: Numis reiterates: Hold - TP: 1016p a day before interims (tomorrow).

Interim Statement

HEADLINES

· Revenue up 3% to £245m with a strong performance in Solutions

· Operating profit up 5% to £33m

· Banknote print volumes up 4% to 2.9bn notes, paper volumes down 15% to 4,500 tonnes

· Group 12 month order book maintained at £248m, of which Currency orders up 7% at £195m

· Improvement Plan benefits of £4m realised in the period

Skin, you forgot the divi.

14,1p maintained. xd 5 Dec. payday 9 Jan.

I didn't forget anything - I only posted what is in the Headlines of the RNS.

27 Nov:

Investec Securities: Hold - Unchanged TP: 940p - reiteration.

Panmure Gordon: Hold - TP: 933.00p maintained.

Morgan Cazenove bullish:

Nov 28:

Citigroup: Reiterates Buy - TP unchanged: 1,055p.

HB Markets: Buy

JP Morgan Cazenove: Reiterates Overweight - TP up from 1,126p to 1,140p

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9732408/Bank-of-England-launches-1bn-banknote-battle.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/supportservices/9747285/Sunday-Interview-To-be-the-provider-of-your-countrys-currency-we-are-rightly-very-proud-of-that.html

StockMarketWire.com
Banknote printer De La Rue's trading since the end of September has been in line with the board's expectations.

And it says that, as previously announced, financial results for 2012-13 are expected to be similar to the previous year.

The currency division is expected, based on customer shipment requirements, to produce c6.4bn banknotes and c9,000 tonnes of banknote paper for the financial year.

Order intake has been satisfactory with some of the delayed orders referred to in the November trading statement having been received though with others still to be confirmed.

As anticipated, the banknote paper market remains challenging, reflecting the introduction of additional capacity by other manufacturers, with continuing evidence of pricing pressure. De La Rue says the solutions division continues to trade satisfactorily.

And it says the 'improvement plan' is progressing well with the process improvement, procurement and facility optimisation programmes all on track to deliver their target savings. The board remains confident of delivering the 'improvement plan' which has a target 2013-14 operating profit in excess of £100m.

Investec Buy 963.75 960.00 1,050.00 Upgrades

All seems pretty good to me, but the market wasn't that impressed, though it is a 'down day' today across the markets.

StockMarketWire.com
Banknote printer De La Rue's reported pre-tax profits rose by 57% to £51.5m in the year to 30 march.

Revenues were down 8% at £483.7m but operating profitds edged up at £63.2m from £63.1m as margins improved to 13.1% from 11.9%.

Underluing pre-tax profits rose by 2% to £59.1m and the dividend is maintained at 42.3p per share.

Chief executive Tim Cobbold said: "De La Rue delivered an operating profit of £63m, in line with the prior year, despite a much more challenging banknote paper market, which has also had some impact in the printed banknote market.

"Overall order intake reflected the difficult market conditions and an historically low level of overspill volume available to the commercial producers. It was also impacted by the previously announced delay to a number of important orders, some of which have since been received.

"We continue to make good progress in cost reduction as part of the Improvement Plan and are now targeting annual savings of £40m, £10m higher than the original Improvement Plan target.

"We enter the new financial year with increased cost savings identified and a strong pipeline of order opportunities, more than 10 per cent higher than at the same time last year. Whilst these opportunities must be secured for delivery in the year, the board remains confident of achieving the 2013-14 Improvement Plan target of an operating profit in excess of £100m."

Prime Markets Buy 966.25 986.00 1,010.00 1,010.00 Reiterates

HC: Market may be reacting to news about orders.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10086021/De-La-Rue-increases-cost-cuts-as-profits-rise.html

Panmure Gordon - Reiteration: Hold - TP: 932p

.

Numis Add 949.25 945.00 1,009.00 1,070.00 Upgrades

I missed this earlier.

Trading Update

De La Rue plc (DLAR.L/DLAR.LN) is today updating the market on trading for the six months to 28 September 2013 and its outlook for the remainder of the current financial year.

The Group's performance in the first half of the current financial year was in line with expectations with Group operating profits estimated to be c£39m, up 18% on the six months to 29 September 2012, on marginally lower revenues. This improvement, despite more challenging trading conditions, reflects the good progress made on the ongoing cost reduction programme which is on track to meet the targets for the year.

Within the Currency division, banknote print volumes in the first half were down 10% at 2.6bn notes while banknote paper volumes increased by 4% to 4,700 tonnes notwithstanding the challenging market. The continuing overcapacity in the banknote paper market has led to a worsening pricing environment in the printed banknote market with recently confirmed orders, for delivery in the second half of 2013/14 and in the 2014/15 financial year, reflecting this pricing pressure.

The Solutions division overall has traded well with the Identity Systems business delivering a strong performance. In the Cash Processing Solutions (CPS) business the decline in the trading results seen in the second half of 2012/13 has continued into the first half of 2013/14 and as a result this business will report an operating loss in the first half. Management action to reduce costs further has commenced, but it is expected that CPS will report a loss for the full year, with a target of achieving break even in 2014/15.

The Group's 12 month order book at 28 September 2013 was £232m up £25m since the start of the year.

In light of the more difficult trading conditions in the Currency division and the CPS business, the Board considers it appropriate to guide that operating profits for the Group for 2013/14 (before IAS19 adjustments) will be c£90m. Although this is an increase of over 40% on the previous financial year it is below the three year Improvement Plan target which was to raise operating profit from £40m in 2010/11 to £100m by 2013/14.

The Board is pleased with the level of order intake in the Currency division but anticipates that the pricing environment in the second half of 2013/14 will continue throughout 2014/15.

De La Rue will announce its interim results on 26 November 2013.

Interim Management Statement

HEADLINES

· Operating profit up 18% to £39.1m

· Improvement Plan benefits of £10m realised in the period

· Banknote print volumes down 10% to 2.6bn notes reflecting the timing of shipments between the first and second half of the current year

· Banknote paper volumes up 4% to 4,700 tonnes

· Headline EPS up 24% at 25.7p

· Group 12 month order book up £25m at £232m, of which Currency orders up 14% at £180m

· Continuous improvement programme on track to deliver full year target cost savings

Citibank note:
"Cut to Neutral, £10 TP — While we remain admirers of De La Rue’s strong franchise and its shares’ optionality on geopolitical dislocation, we have to respect the change in its core currency market economics with competitor price discounting.
Currency price war — The outsourced banknote manufacturer oligopoly seems currently disrupted by price discounting originating (according to De La Rue) from Oberthur, the number three banknote print operator, which previously unsuccessfully bid for De La Rue and is now advised by De La Rue’s ex-CEO James Hussey. The industry has historically seen periods of overcapacity and price discounting (e.g. during the late 1990s) and usually it has passed within a couple of years. While it happens, however, it can be a painful experience in such an operationally geared business model.
Sensible corporate strategy — We are encouraged that De La Rue’s management team does not seem tempted to spend De La Rue’s typically impressive cash generation on strategic acquisitions (unlike some of their predecessors). Instead, the focus seems to be primarily organic around existing strengths. We expect De La Rue’s R&D banknote market leadership (50 R&D employees) to be an increasingly important EPS driver in areas such as polymer bank notes and deeper monetisation of patents and knowhow through the banknote and passport supply chains. The large Bangladesh passport contract win adds credibility to this strategy
New forecasts — Reflecting confirmation of management’s lowered financial guidance, we cut our 2014-2016E EPS estimates by 15-23%. This is principally on the back of banknote price discounting but also reflects a poor period of sales for CPS. These EPS downgrades drive a target price cut from 1055p to 1000p. With insufficient ETR we lower our rating to Neutral."