From the Blue Index blog

Dont bet on Ladbrokes
May 15th, 2009

Shares in bookmaker Ladbrokes (LAD) were looking like a good recovery play up to this morning, having regained over 50% of their value after the October low of 133p last year

But this morning, Ladbrokes reported a 34% slump in profits for the first four months of 2009. Profits from big spending high rollers tumbled to just GBP25m from GBP40m in 2008, with punters enjoying a particularly good Cheltenham Festival in March. These abnormal gross win margin levels, increased free bets and unfavourable cost phasing in eGaming against the previous year resulted in the profits slump, although CEO Chris Bell was at pains to point out the rate of decline is not representative of our expectations for the year, and he said the decline has already given way to more normal trends in May. And overall, added Chris Bell, the general resilience of the business and strong cost controls gives us confidence in the outturn for the full year.

But brokers Noble, Shore Capital and Daniel Stewart all see the results as disappointing and weaker than expected, particularly given that results at rival William Hill are strong and in stark contrast

Full transcript here
http://blog.blueindex.co.uk/2009/05/dont-bet-on-ladbrokes/

Fitch Rates Ladbrokes' 5.125% 2022 Wholesale and Retail GBP Bond 'BB(EXP)' LADB.BR

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) LONDON, May 28 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has assigned Ladbrokes plc's (Ladbrokes; BB/Stable) proposed senior unsecured 5.125% 2022 wholesale and retail GBP bond a 'BB (EXP)' expected rating. The assignment of the final rating is subject to the receipt of final documentation conforming to information already received. The bond is being issued to diversify funding sources, to reduce reliance on bank debt and to extend Ladbrokes's debt maturity profile. Fitch believes the proceeds will be used to repay Ladbrokes's drawn revolving credit facility (RCF) debt as well as for general corporate purposes. There will therefore be no increase in gross or net debt initially as a result of the bond issue. The bond is being issued by finance subsidiary Ladbrokes Group Finance plc and guaranteed by Ladbrokes. The bond is rated at the same level as Ladbrokes's Issuer Default Rating of 'BB' as it will rank equally with the company's senior unsecured debt, including the existing GBP225m 2017 bond and RCF debt. Ladbrokes's current ratings reflect a difficult UK betting environment, risks to the future profitability of Ladbrokes' on-line business and its high leverage at end-2013 (3.8x on an adjusted funds from operations (FFO) net leverage basis), which is likely to remain at or above 3.0x by end-2016. KEY RATING DRIVERS: Weak UK trading After a difficult 2013 betting shop environment characterised by higher-than-inflation cost increases, particularly in content costs, UK retail profitability for 2014 will be negatively impacted by an increase in machine games duty (MGD) to 25% from 20%, which could reduce operating profits at Ladbrokes by up to GBP22m in a full year. High Digital Transformation Costs Ladbrokes was off to a slow start in the digital market and has been underperforming in what is becoming a transformational requirement for a modern betting business. Fitch views the company's five-year partnership with Playtech positively as it provides access to up-to-date technology and know-how. All transitional changes are expected to be complete by end- 1H14, and the effects on digital's performance from 2H14 should be positive. Ladbrokes has, however, confirmed a continued high level of capex in FY14 for its digital operations, amid a fierce advertising and expensive marketing battle among large betting groups to attract new active and profitable customers. In Fitch's view it is uncertain whether or not the re-launch of Ladbrokes's digital operations will translate into sustained higher profits in 2014 and 2015. Maintained Dividends Higher-than-expected operating costs in 2013 negatively affected the company's free cash flow generation and thus its deleveraging efforts last year. Despite this reduced cash flow generation, Ladbrokes continues its shareholder-friendly policy with its decision to maintain its dividend policy (GBP81m in 2013). While this shows the degree of confidence of management in the business it nonetheless constrains cash flow available for debt service. Deleveraging Slowing Following weak operating cash flow in 2013 and stable dividends, Ladbrokes's de-leveraging has stalled. Leverage increased to 3.8x at end-2013 from 2.7x at end-2012, and Fitch does not expect it to fall below 3.0x before 2016. This reduces financial flexibility at a time of strong competition in the betting market. FOBT Gaming Regulation The UK government has recently set out plans for improving player protection on fixed odds-betting terminals (FOBT). These involve letting players control their gaming choices and the amount they spend. The measures include customers who want to bet over GBP50 on a FOBT having to pay over-the-counter, machines displaying a choice of set limits on spending by customer, customer accounts allowing players to track their own spending and warning messages and pauses to allow players to be more aware of their gambling. Lastly the proposals strengthen the voluntary self-exclusion system, so that players can make a single request to be banned from betting shops on a wider basis. If the UK government introduces new gaming-amount limit restrictions on fixed odds-betting terminals (FOBT), Ladbrokes will probably be more affected than its close competitor William Hill. This is because over 50% of Ladbrokes's UK retail operating profits comes from FOBT terminals and the company currently has a weaker digital platform than William Hill. Solid Liquidity The group has strong liquidity with over GBP365m of available cash and undrawn committed facilities at end-2013. Ladbrokes does not face any meaningful debt maturities until 2016, when the group's GBP540m bilateral facility falls due while its GBP225m bond only matures in March 2017. RATING SENSITIVITIES Positive: Future developments that could lead to positive rating action include: - Further strengthening of operations with an established competitive profile in online gaming, a stabilised UK retail business and lower reliance on the UK market - Positive FCF on a sustained basis - FFO adjusted net leverage sustainably below 3.0x - FFO fixed charge cover above 3.0x (end-2013: 2.7x) Negative: Future developments that could lead to negative rating action include: - Further material deterioration in UK retail operating profits, adverse regulatory developments and no significant improvement in digital operating profits - FCF in negative territory - FFO adjusted net leverage rising towards 4.0x due to continued weak trading, or for over 12 to 18 months due to M&A activity - FFO fixed charge cover below 2.5x

Half Yearly Report

INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE 2014

H1 OPERATIONAL OBJECTIVES DELIVERED; A GOOD WORLD CUP; POSITIONED TO DRIVE GROWTH

H1 key operational objectives delivered
· Mobile Sportsbook growth: staking +105%; actives +74% yoy; conversion rates improved by 14ppts
· Playtech migration completed; new back office (IMS/single wallet), casino and bingo products
· IMS/single wallet delivers improved customer experience and more effective marketing capability
· Successful roll out of c.9,000 Clarity machine cabinets ahead of World Cup
· SSBT estate grown to 1,750 supporting UK Retail focus on football
· Further international diversification: Australia - Betstar acquired and integrated

Good World Cup performance(5)(6) - a competitive customer offer
· Group stakes(7) £115.3 million up 22.4%; gross win margin(7) 24.3%
· Digital net revenue up 25.9%; sign ups up 48%; actives up 28%
· Mobile staking growth up over 1100%; 63% of sportsbook staking
· UK Retail staking up 7.9%; gross win margin 27.4%; significant increase in multiples
· Spain Retail JV(7) staking up 160%; Belgium Retail staking up 157%

Financial performance - H1 EBIT ahead of H2 2013 consistent with guidance

· Group net revenue(1) up 1.6%(2) despite some poor industry wide sporting results

· Group operating profit(1) (3) of £56.8 million down 33.7%

· Underlying earnings per share(4) down 38.6% to 4.3p

· Half year dividend maintained at 4.3p per share (H1 2013: 4.3p)

· High Rollers contributed £10.7 million of operating profit (H1 2013: £3.4 million)

Bought in today, near multi year lows, ex div later this month so get paid whilst I wait for sp to perform I guess.
2517

StockMarketWire.com
Bookmaker Ladbrokes is on track to meet its full year targets after revenue and profit growth in the third quarter.

Ladbrokes said group net revenue rose by 13.0% (+9.6% exc. Australia) and group operating profit of £33.0m was up 94% (Q3 2013: £17.0m) and on track for full year expectations.

Total Digital net revenue was up 45.9% (+22.9% exc. Australia). Sportsbook net revenue was up 58.2%; stakes +21.6% driven by mobile (+113%).

Chief executive Richard Glynn said: "Ladbrokes is on track. The major operational improvements completed in H1 are now delivering growth. Our performance in the World Cup and throughout Q3 demonstrate that we are competing successfully and winning customers.

"In Digital, our sportsbetting offer continues to perform well with net revenue up over 50% driven by mobile. In Gaming we are encouraged to see a return to growth. In UK Retail, our focus on football continues to deliver good growth. Our gaming machines performed ahead of our expectations while we have, simultaneously, enhanced standards in social responsibility.

"We entered the final part of 2014 with a competitive and attractive offer. We have achieved much operationally in 2014, with further opportunities to drive revenue in 2015 and beyond. Q4 has started in line with our plans and, with usual sporting results, we will deliver full year results in line with our expectations."

See William Hill. SP already at four year low, not technically oversold yet but pretty close on RSI.

LATEST BROKER VIEWS

Date Broker New target Recomm.
28 Nov JP Morgan... 95.00 Underweight
28 Nov Exane BNP... 150.00 Outperform
11 Nov JP Morgan... N/A Underweight
4 Nov Credit Suisse 125.00 Underperform
31 Oct Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy
24 Oct Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy
24 Oct JP Morgan... 95.00 Underweight
23 Oct Goodbody N/A Hold
23 Oct Numis 100.00 Reduce
23 Oct Canaccord... 150.00 Hold
Broker Recommendations for Ladbrokes

Ladbrokes' search

StockMarketWire.com

Bookmaker Ladbrokes will shortly start a process to identify a successor for chief executive Richard Glynn who will leave the company next year at the end of his five-year term.

The search will evaluate both internal and external candidates.

Glynn has been implementing a fundamental re-engineering of its business and operational and digital capabilities.

Ladbrokes says: "As this year has progressed, it has become increasingly clear to the board that the necessary organisational and operational changes have been implemented and the benefits of the transformation plan are beginning to come through.

"Whilst the Board acknowledges that the recovery programme has taken longer to deliver than initially anticipated, in great part due to economic and regulatory headwinds, the Board believes that the changes made are now deeply embedded in the organisation and that increasing attention should now be focused on delivering sustainable growth from a much stronger operational and digital platform.

"With four weeks to go the Company is trading in line with its expectations for the current year and is confident that 2015 will see further operational and financial progress."

Glynn was appointed CEO of Ladbrokes in April 2010, with a clear mandate to implement the recovery programme within a five year term.

Following extensive and constructive discussions between the Board and Richard, it is intended that he will complete his term and continue in his role as CEO into 2015.

The board will shortly start a process to identify his successor and the search will evaluate both internal and external candidates.

Once an appointment has been made, Glynn has agreed to remain in post as required to ensure an orderly transition. Chairman Peter Erskine said: "On behalf of the Board, I would like to thank Richard for his leadership of the Company and his considerable achievements in delivering a new digital future for Ladbrokes. He has devoted enormous energy and dedication to securing the transformation of the Company and the benefits of that work are beginning to be seen. I am pleased that he will both see through the final steps of the implementation plan and be on hand to facilitate an orderly succession process. Ladbrokes has been transformed and is a far stronger company as a result of his work. " Glynn commented: "Everyone at Ladbrokes has worked incredibly hard over the past, nearly five years, to deliver the transformation programme. We have faced significant operational challenges, as well as economic and regulatory headwinds. However I am pleased that the business is fundamentally stronger than it was and now has the operational and digital capabilities to compete effectively. We have delivered against all of the recent milestones and increasingly shown real competitive momentum ".

"It has been a privilege to lead Ladbrokes over this crucial phase. I am very proud of the resilience and professionalism the team has shown during this intense period of activity. It is the right time for Ladbrokes to identify my successor. I will continue to serve the Company to help ensure a smooth succession I look forward to the Company, the shareholders, our partners and in particular everyone in the team reaping the benefits, over the next few years, of all that has been sown."



Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

Talk of Harriet Green (ex TCG) taking the vacant role, if right then sp should improve from here.
2517

Already in WMH George, if that rumour becomes fact reckon it's worth a punt. Long on the spreads 118.22 stop 108.22

LATEST BROKER VIEWS

Date Broker New target Recomm.
5 Dec Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy
4 Dec JP Morgan... 95.00 Underweight
3 Dec Goodbody N/A Hold
3 Dec Shore Capital N/A Hold
3 Dec Panmure Gordon 135.00 Hold
28 Nov JP Morgan... 95.00 Underweight
28 Nov Exane BNP... 150.00 Outperform
11 Nov JP Morgan... N/A Underweight
4 Nov Credit Suisse 125.00 Underperform
31 Oct Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy
Broker Recommendations for Ladbrokes

Mixed bag from the brokers as usual CC, good luck with WMH (I'm not in) and your punt on LAD.
2517

Probably a glutton for punishment. Back in long on the spreads this morning (Mar Contract) @ 115.13. Initial target 140p Stop 98p. Preliminary results 26th Feb. Ex Divi March. 52wk low 102.20 - 52wk high 167.30.

Stop to entry for risk free trade.

Marking time, still hoping for a push leading up to results.

LATEST BROKER VIEWS

Date Broker New target Recomm.
11 Feb Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy

Careful with this one CC. I saw a broker note yesterday saying that LAD were probably going to suffer if the WMH / 888 takeover goes ahead.

Who knows Harry, broker notes mixed at best. Got a tight stop anyway.:0)

There is a negative article in Shares Mag apparently.

And Chris - so we've heard! :-))

Negative article in Shares Mag? Now there is a cast iron buying signal if ever i saw one. :0)