anyone got any ideas about the block trades that went through today?

website: http://www.sterlingenergyplc.com/



weather: www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084938.shtml?50wind120

With the Mauritanians sounding more positive on Ching, what we have had from Woodside could well have been a worse case senario. Prepare the market for the worst and then deliver more is a common tactic. In truth what Woodside said about Ching was that the reserves were unaffected and that it was just going to take more work to get the oil out of the ground.They also said that because of the high oil price, that extra work that needed to be done was worth doing.
What we have now is a situation where the problems at Ching need to get sorted ASAP. I said before that in my opinion the drop to 23,000 bopd was as a result of shutdowns to ready the field for remedial drilling. This remedial drilling will start shortly and the information that results from it together with the 4D survey will get this field back on course and up to 75,000 bopd. The reason I say this is because like other posters have said, Tullow will not want the drag of Ching weighing down their SP so they are going to throw their weight behind getting it sorted. The Mauritanians also have a desperate need for the income that Ching provides and so they also are going to push for a resolution with the carrot being further licences once Ching is resolved.
Out of interest, if anyone is interested what can be done to resolve segmented fields they should do some research on snake wells. These weave through segments in fields and open up the whole field. Alternativly they can use horizontal drilling between segments. The bottom line is that all this infill drilling was always going to happen, only at a later stage, and now its going to happen sooner. The main point for Sterling is that production should be on the increase at a time when the oil price is high and that will mean that their coffers will then be filling up more quickly.

Just what I said would happen. Now for the PSC`s.

http://www.tradearabia.com/tanews/newsdetails_snOGN_article116473_cnt.html

.....Iraqi officials have reached a tentative deal on an oil law that would allow the regions to negotiate oilfield contracts with foreign investors but gives the central government the final say..........'The Kurdish regional government has accepted to review its existing contracts so that it will become consistent with the law,' a source said.....................It also says oil policy would be set nationally and the ministry of oil would be restructured and transformed into a regulatory body. All revenues would be deposited into a single national account.........


Thats the relevant part highlighted.

I think the PSCs are a way off yet but at least they will happen, subject to Central Government approval of course.

One of the central demands that were made by the Kurdistan government was that existing contracts be honoured. Whatever way you look at todays news it is a victory for the Kurds and you can be sure that all existing agreements will have the full weight of the Kurdistan government behind them. These deals may have to be agreed by the Federal government but they are not going to be refused as if they are then it will be back to the days of confrontation and in the interests of Iraq that is not going to happen. So the Kurds will have their PSC`s and they will be rubber stamped by Baghdad.

You assume too much.

http://www.tradearabia.com/tanews/newsdetails_snOGN_article116473_cnt.html

"Iraqi officials have reached a tentative deal on an oil law that would allow the regions to negotiate oilfield contracts with foreign investors but gives the central government the final say........

That could be assumed to be a rubber stamp but;......"'If rejection happens and the region insists on the contract, a body of (independent) experts will arbitrate.'

And goes on, "........'Contracts will not become effective unless the national body does not reject it. If the national policy council were to reject any draft contract within a specified period of 60 days then the contract will not be effective,' the sources said."

Lets turn that last sentence into English rather than a poor translation with double negatives.

"Contracts will become effective if approved by the National Body. The National Policy Council can reject any draft contract within a 60 day period before it becomes effective."

Dont look much like rubber stamping to me.

Why would they reject any?

However it is clear that the Iraqi Government need the revenue from oil to rebuild the economy and the country. Moreover they need to do this to stabalise the country. The only problem may not appear, that being the Sunni Muslims thinking the are not getting their fair share from the revenues.

We will see what Sterling gets out of this.

One thing you can be sure of is that they have the contacts there.

If the present agreements were disputed and went to a court of law then the agreements would be upheld as the ability for Kurdistan to sigh agreements is part of the constitution. However as I have said before it is in no ones best interest for there to be conflict over the issue. In the past, Kurdistan have even threatened to break away from Iraq if current agreements were not honoured, such is the need for oil companies to start drilling, and in negoitiations Kurdistan said that the present agreements were non negoitiable. On the issue of PCS`s both the Kurdistan government and the Federal government have both stated that PSC`s will be given once the oil law is signed, but there was a time that Kurdistan stated that if there was any delay in granting PCS`s then they would announce them regardless of any oil law having been signed. I therefore do not expect any delay in PSC`s after the signing of the oil law. The way I read this is that Kurdistan have got what they wanted but it had to be presented in a way that was acceptable to the Federal government. Kurdistan will sign their PSC`s and they will get rubber stamped. Anything else will put Kurdistans future in Iraq in doubt.

fido - read my post.

I think we are in agreement that it is not in anyones best interests for there to be a conflict over these issues contained in the new Oil Law.

As for the rest, an Iraqi Court of Law is very different to a UK one I should think.

I also believe that if Kurdistan ever tried to break away from Iraq, there would be war, don't you?

USA and UK plus other countries want to remove their troops and go home, they can't stay there forever.

The Kurdistan regional government will need to play the game to continue to exist.

You said, "..and in negotiations Kurdistan said that the present agreements were non negotiable......."

Your article said, 'The Kurdish regional government has accepted to review its existing contracts so that it will become consistent with the law,' a source said.

Your post is at odds with the Reuters item..

So who is right, them or you?

You said, "........but there was a time that Kurdistan stated that if there was any delay in granting PCS`s then they would announce them regardless of any oil law having been signed."

Why bother having any talks to make an agreement if they are not going to abide by what they have agreed.

I would suggest that was pre negotiation sabre rattling.

I don't doubt things will move along now, I don't doubt that Sterling are making a play for assets.

You come over far too strong some times.

What will be, will be.

There is nothing you or I can do or say to stop events, we are just small little people in a great big world.

Now I think this is the end of this "argument" as you have called it elsewhere.

Go and try to pick a fight with someone else for a change.

My information comes from a variety of sources over a lenghty time span and not from just the one article I posted. I am in agreement though that at the end of the day-time will tell.

Then we do actually agree there is no arguement.

Good, this is progress.

I accept that you probably have a much better feel for Iraq than I do, and I accept that you have a lot stored in your head that you do not need to revisit a link where you saw it.

I am convinced that your intentions are good, shame you don't think the same but here you go......

I prefer to discuss.

This is the way forward.

http://www.kurdmedia.com/news.asp?id=13786

"Iraqi officials reach a tentative deal on oil law

12/21/2006 Reuters
Baghdad - Iraqi officials have reached a tentative deal on an oil law that would allow the regions to negotiate oilfield contracts with foreign investors but gives the central government the final say.

Iraq desperately needs foreign investment to revive its shattered economy, which relies heavily on oil export revenues. The country straddles the worlds third largest oil reserves.

Sources close to the negotiations said Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has "signalled his approval" of the draft, but the law still awaits political approval and endorsement by the cabinet.

The sources said the law calls for the formation of a national oil council - led by either the prime minister or his deputy - that will have the authority to reject oilfield deals.

"Regions will be negotiating in accordance with specific parameters and investment models decided by the national oil policy council ... in the presence of a representative of the national oil body," one of the sources said.

"If rejection happens and the region insists on the contract, a body of (independent) experts will arbitrate."

The oil minister, central bank governor, a representative from each region and oil, finance and economy experts will serve on the council, the sources said.

"The Kurdish regional government has accepted to review its existing contracts so that it will become consistent with the law," a source said.

The industry desperately needs foreign investment to revive Iraqs shattered economy, which relies heavily on oil export revenues.

The contracts issue is vital to Iraqs future as a solution favouring the regions would devolve power over its most valuable resources to the majority Shias and the Kurds whose regions are home to the countrys most coveted oilfields.

Minority Sunni Arabs, who were the dominant group under Saddam Hussain before the US-led invasion in 2003, fear regional devolution will leave them with nothing.

"Contracts will not become effective unless the national body does not reject it. If the national policy council were to reject any draft contract within a specified period of 60 days then the contract will not be effective," the sources said.

The sources said the law calls for Iraqs two national oil companies to be turned into a holding company with operational affiliates to manage different aspects of the industry.

It also says oil policy would be set nationally and the ministry of oil would be restructured and transformed into a regulatory body. All revenues would be deposited into a single national account.

Iraqi officials have said the law will be delivered to the parliament for ratification by the end of December. But the legislation is likely to be finalised early next year because of the holiday season, the sources said."

I think this is more or less the same item as posted by fido I dont have the time to cross check just now, so read it as is.

It also says oil policy would be set nationally and the ministry of oil would be restructured and transformed into a regulatory body. All revenues would be deposited into a single national account.

Is this bit new?

No and is in effect what the Kurds were asking for. Revenue will be distributed as per population. The main thing is that it allows Kurdistan/Iraq to move ahead with its plans for oil.
PS. Petrel resources has already felt the benefit of the near signing of the law and Sterling will follow once its becomes clear that a PSC is on the cards.

As a PS to my last post, there were rumers of a Sterling link up with Petrel Resources. While I think that is possible at some stage in the future, reaching agreement on the new oil law certainly makes it possible. Agreement also means that Sterling can negotiate deals with Baghdad as soon as the time is right but I think that Kurdistan is going to be the main bridgehead to begin with.

Whats good for Petrel is good for Sterling, see below:


Possible reason for AIM listed Petrel Resources/PET taking off this afternoon?!?!?



barkerman - 21 Dec'06 - 14:21 - 56056 of 56057


David Horgan
Sent : 21 December 2006 13:02:56
To : "peter barker"
Subject : RE: Happy new year

| | | Inbox


Many thanks for your kind wishes and support.
With the Iraqi Petroleum Law due to go before Parliament on 7th January,
hopefully 2007 will be a breakthrough year!
David

Well fido, your posts have worked, or at least the Reuters links have.

Well done, lets see how far and if this goes.

Gloat please.

Sterling Petrel link up?

That's been said before about 3 years ago.

Could be, except if you recall the item I found from the BBC about an interview with David Hogan, he said that, (words to the effect that) any Co using men and equipment in Kurdistan would not be considered etc.......in Iraq.

Unless this Law is effectively an entente cordial?

"(words to the effect that) any Co using men and equipment in Kurdistan would not be considered etc.......in Iraq."

This is why agreement is such good news. Before there was sabre rattling with the Kurds threatening to quit Iraq and Baghdad saying the above. Agreement now means that Sterling can negotiate deals throughout Iraq with a link up with Petrel possible because of the links between the two companies. As I said before the important thing is the hard talking is coming to an end and we can look forward to Jan 7th and the PSC announcements.

Okay.

Understood.

Well, the trades indicate that even though most of the big boys are away, they are still active, some large trades going through.

I also suspect the mm don;'t know what's going on, they are trying to hold the price back.

Well that was an exciting end to the day.

42m so far reported.

It will be intersting to see what, if anything transpires tomorow?

Petrel finished up nearly 17%.
A sign of things to come for Sterling.