I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Broker Brief.....

11 Oct Man Group PLC EMG UBS Buy 0.00 93.40 110.00 110.00 Reiterates

110p SP target.

Interim Management Statement

Key points

· Funds under Management (FUM) at 30 September 2012 of $60.0 billion, up 14% since
30 June 2012 ($52.7 billion) with the FRM acquisition closing on 17 July, adding $8.3 billion to FUM

· Net outflows in the quarter of $2.2 billion with the increase compared to Q2 ($1.4 billion) concentrated in lower margin product lines (Institutional FoF and GLG long only)

· Positive investment movement of $0.5 billion in the quarter

- The majority of GLG alternative funds had positive performance in the quarter with the strongest performance coming from various of the credit and convertibles strategies

- Over three quarters of performance fee eligible GLG FUM at or within 5% of high water mark at end September

- AHL had positive investment movement of $0.3 billion; AHL was approximately 14% from peak on a weighted average basis at end September

· FX and other movements of $0.7 billion in the quarter, driven by the strengthening of the Euro against the dollar. The impact of guaranteed product rebalancing was slightly positive in the quarter

· Previously announced cost saving programmes remain on track

· Financial position remains strong with around $500 million of surplus regulatory capital at 30 September 2012

I'm out @89.1. At least I mad a profit this time.

Which would imply that you think there is more downside to come? Results look reasonable, though not sure if they are as good/less good than expected.

I'll keep an eye on them, but I think there is more upside elsewhere now.

If it doesn't bounce of 50DMA I'll pull the rip cord, frustrating I didn't think results were great but improvement at least :O)

Man Group client withdrawals hinder fightback

LONDON | Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:49am BST

(Reuters) - Hedge fund manager Man Group Plc (EMG.L) has suffered a net withdrawal of client funds for a fifth straight quarter as its struggle to revive its fortunes is hit by poor returns from its main fund.

Man, whose shares are down nearly 70 percent since the start of last year on the back of outflows and poor fund returns, said clients withdrew a net $2.2 billion over the three months through September, up from $1.4 billion the previous quarter.

Says it all skinny, I'm out.

Citigroup note:
"* Cost savings reflected — We believe the current share price properly reflects the benefit of $195m cost savings announced in March and July 2012.
* Challenges remain — Man remains challenged for fund flow momentum. AHL is down 0% to -2% YTD, and at -14% below high water is well outside performance fee earning territory. We continue to forecast declining management fee revenues, primarily due to our forecast of further falls in Guaranteed Products FUM.
* New EPS — Following today’s Q3 statement we amend our EPS forecasts, from 12.7p to 12.1p 2013 and from 14.1p to 11.4p 2014. This reflects lower performance fee EPS expectations longer term. Due to better-than-expected AUM mix (more high-margin guaranteed products), we raise 2012E EPS slightly from 8.7p to 9.0p.
* Regulatory Capital — Man disclosed $500m regulatory capital surplus at end September 2012, down from $700m at end June due to the payment of an uncovered interim dividend and higher capital requirements post FRM deal. We forecast further decline in this surplus following the payment of the uncovered final dividend in Q1 2013, and an estimated -$200m to -$300m impact from Basel III (which we believe is likely Q1 2014).
* Doing the right thing — Management is doing the right thing, in our view, focusing on reducing operational scale to better match fund flow levels, rather than AUM. However, we see the near-term outlook now fairly reflected in the share price. This, together with reducing dividend yield support (we forecast 11.0c DPS for 2013, down from 22c 2012E), leads us to move from Buy to Neutral, retaining a High Risk code."

In auction -10.4%

EMG

Mam is the word today, after a couple days of staying around the botton lately at what could be called double bottom

Or by the way I am in since late last week @ 74.10p , with a top up on Tuesday @ 73.45p.

mj
thanks for that
would you also be kind enough to tell us the prices you sell at a week or so after or 2 days after you sell at, i agree with you it could well be a double bottom
thank you
regards
jkd

one of the resons for the large rise today ..........

From the FT - November 22, 2012

Man’s ‘evolution’ fund aids AHL losses / By Sam Jones, Hedge Fund Correspondent

Man Group, the world’s second largest hedge fund manager, has shifted $1.5bn of its flagship computerised fund AHL into an experimental new portfolio to boost ailing returns.

The new vehicle, which Man has internally dubbed “evolution”, has made 18 per cent so far this year, and made 16 per cent last year, according to a person familiar with its performance.

It has been specifically developed by Man to help AHL, which manages assets of $16.3bn, overcome the impact of quantitative easing and the ongoing Eurozone crisis, which between them have wrought havoc with many quant funds’ traditional momentum-driven trading styles.

Since quantitative easing began in 2009, AHL has lost 12 per cent, compared with its two decade average record of 15 per cent returns annually.

The giant fund’s underperformance has triggered a 41 per cent slide in Man’s shares this year, which led to the London-based company dropping out of the FTSE 100 in June and have prompted an overhaul of the business.

Analysts have cautioned that there is little chance of Man’s share price recovering until AHL begins to perform and bring in lucrative fees.

A spokesperson for Man declined to comment.

Like AHL’s traditional operations, evolution uses complex algorithms and mathematical models to automatically trade in and out of markets where it senses opportunities.

While AHL has historically almost exclusively traded futures contracts, however, evolution is focused on new, more esoteric markets.

Man’s computers have been deployed in the new portfolio to trade in liquid, but complex areas such as emerging market interest rate derivatives, credit indices and even electricity contracts.

The portfolio has been constructed by Man to try and target areas which have exhibited very low correlation to traditional markets and the effects of G10 central bank fiscal and monetary interventions.

The company began tinkering with new trading ideas as far back as 2009, but AHL has only recently begun to seriously “ramp up” its allocations to the strategy according to an insider.

Evolution is currently trading in around 100 different instruments. AHL’s management are said to be very pleased with its progress – not least because it also exhibits very low correlations to traditional equity markets.

Other big quant funds have also begun to look in new areas to help them bolster their performance. Winton Capital, Man’s biggest rival, also runs an experimental computerised fund in which to develop new trading systems which it also calls evolution.

Winton has recently begun looking at ways in which it can apply its quantitative trading techniques to equity markets, a person familiar with the firm’s thinking said.

According to Hedge Fund Research, quant funds have lost, on average 3.46 per cent so far this year, and lost 3.54 per cent last year.

ft.com - Man’s ‘evolution’ fund aids AHL losses ft.com - Man’s ‘evolution’ fund aids AHL losses

The H & S being formed is now bouncing back after a double bottom formed

Hope you are right Joe, and not yet another dead cat. I'll have a dabble if or when sp is over 100.0 and more apparent they are turning the company around. Good luck in the meantime.

Presumably you chartist guys would say that if the sp clears the 200 DMA & holds,we should be in for a concerted upward trend?

sp moving up,new CEO and final results due end of FEB, worth a look?

wonder when the t/o will happen

Money to be be made here. Anyone know how the AHL fund is doing lately?