barclays will ge coming out with trading update on 07.05.2009 It is expected to report profits higher than market expectations.

A good Buy Medium to Long term

Another opinion from Credit Suisse:
"We thought certain market estimates were toppy, but this will disappoint everyone with revenues down 26% on Q1 2009. The weak performance was driven by FICC revenues down 38% versus an average decline of 10% seen at other banks so far. It again suggests that Q1 and Q2 2009 were exceptional periods, and that a quarterly run-rate of 3.5-4bn is more normal. With full year consensus (and us) at around 17bn, we think there is scope for a 2bn downgrade in 2010E. However, the cost to net income ratio was just 58% in the quarter, implying that our cost forecast of 9bn might be around 500m too high as well.
Credit market writedowns and impairment forecasts are already fairly low in 2011, potentially providing less offset to lower Barclays Capital estimates. The risk is pronounced by the performance of the non-Barclays Capital businesses where pre-provision profits appear to have stagnated at around 1.5bn per quarter.
Conclusion: This is a disappointing statement, in our view. We believe consensus forecasts for 2010 are safe, but 2011 is more vulnerable (several commentators are forecasting over 10bn PBT). The RWA figure is also disappointing particularly given existing concerns on Basel 3 and CCR RWA. Lack of dividend growth might also trouble some, although we suspect the group will effect its progressive dividend strategy through the Q4 dividend. The saving grace remains the valuation. We believe TNAV at March 2010 was around 330p putting the shares on just 1.1 times historic equity. Furthermore, the group continues to improve its already strong liquidity position through the issue of 17bn of medium term notes in Q1 2010 (more than the maturities expected in the whole of 2010)."

Evolution broker note:
"EVO TAKE We cut substantially our Barclays estimates (2011 EPS cut by 44%), and cut our TP by 30%, from 482p to 340p. We downgrade the stock to Sell (from Buy)
DETAILS Barclays seems to be one of the most affected in our universe by the new taxation: we calculate a negative impact of 1.9bn p.a. (25% of profits). This has another negative knock-on effect; due to lower earnings retention, and the potential increased capital consumption of its BlackRock stake, we now calculate a 3bn capital deficit by 2012. We cut our 2011 EPS by 44%, our TP by 30% to 340p, and downgrade to Sell.
VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION Barclays added to our Core Sell. BARC trades below tNAV and shows 12% upside, but despite this upside we see the stock as a very unattractive investment option: its upside is well below the upside of the sector (30%) and the average upside of our Core Buy ideas (57%). BARC has outperformed Eurobanks by 20% YTD; given the difficult regulatory environment, we cut to Sell and include it in our Core Sell portfolio."

6.5% up on the day so far. Presumably down to the favourable stress test results yesterday?

Daily Telegraph 3/08/10
"Barclays (BARC.L) is understood to be involved in trials of new smartphone technology in the United States, which could hasten the end of credit and debit card dominance. The technology utilises radio frequency identification tags embedded in handsets, such as Blackberrys and iPhones, which are linked to a customer's bank account, enabling them to buy products and services by simply waving their phone at a terminal. Visa and MasterCard have unsuccessfully attempted to use the technology in the past and the implication is that they could lose their stranglehold on the market."

StockMarketWire.com
Barclays this morning reported gross profit before tax up 44% at 3.947bn for the half-year to end-June, with adjusted profit before tax up 22% at 2,963bn.

Profit after tax rose 32% to 2.921bn.

Diluted earnings per share from continuing operations were 19.7p, up 23% from 16p the prior year.

An interim dividend of 2p per share will be paid.

Impairment charges were 3.08bn, down 32%, giving a loan loss rate of 118bps (full year 2009: 156bps), with a sharp decrease in impairment at Barclays Capital partially offset by an increase in impairment in Barclays Corporate in Spain.

Operating expenses were 9.72bn, up 21%, reflecting continued investment in the build-out of Barclays Capital and Barclays Wealth, increased regulatory costs, increased charges relating to prior year compensation deferrals, adverse impact of currency exchange rate movements and restructuring charges in Barclays Corporate.

Core Tier 1 ratio was 10% (end-December 2009: 10%) and Tier 1 capital ratio was 13.2% (end-December 2009: 13%).

Disappointed. Cost:income ratio gone from 53% to 59%, which imo is an awful performance. Barclays Capital now dominates and by its nature its income is volatile, but its costs high. (BarCap top line, excluding gains on own credit and income relating to credit market exposures) down 32% on year before. Token dividend as expected. I hold, but had hoped for much better.

The market seems to agree with you. Down 3% on reasonably good results considering the macro environment, but below expectations.

The MMs are enjoying this - just a many buys as sells tells its own story.

StockMarketWire.com
Banking giant Barclays has named Bob Diamond as its new group chief executive.

He will takeover from the current chief executive John Varley next year.

Diamond - who currently leads the group's corporate and investment banking and Barclays Wealth businesses - will become president and deputy group chief executive from 1 October.

Varley will become a senior advisor on regulatory matters to Diamond and to the board of Barclays until 30 September 2011.

Heading back to it's 12 month low again.

"Nomura Securities has reiterated its neutral stance on banking giant Barclays , arguing that the potential for a re-rating remains limited while the bank faces regulatory pressures in the form of the Basel III guidelines for capital and banking regulations.

By Nomuras reckoning Barclays Capital, the investment arm of Barclays, contributes around half of the groups normalised profits, but the proposed regulatory changes will lift the divisions risk weighted assets to a little under two-thirds of the group total.

Higher capital requirements would reduce the effective RoE [return on equity] implied by our current normalised PBT [profit before tax] assumption at BarCap to 7% and limit group RoE to 10%, Nomura analyst Robert Law projects.

Law sees Barclays core Tier 1 (CT1) ratio being around 8.5% at the end of 2012. Though this is within the new Basel III guidelines Law notes it would be the lowest CT1 ratio among the UK banks, leaving the door open to pressure from the regulators to strengthen it further in view of the groups slightly racy business mix.

Bob Diamond, due to assume the mantle of chief executive officer at the bank, has, however, indicated the group does not intend to raise equity from shareholders, the broker observes."

From FT blog:
"the rumour in the market today is that they (BARC) need to raise around 8bn"

Just shorted BARC at 264p.

Why now? Surely 3 months ago was the time? Limited downside now imo.

Yeah, should have at 300p with hindsight. 230-240p imho now.

Good luck. Tight stop just in case the banks have a good day once the Eire problem is sorted!

Thanks, Harry. Yeah, tight stop needed. Agree with u.
The Irish debt is not going to disappear overnight, I hope.

Possible reason for the current nervousness in BARC:
FT "Barc has EUR1.2bn of Portugal govt bonds and EUR13.35bn of loan exposure more than any of the other UK banks."

Already in profit from yesterday.

Chart looking as though the bottom may have been reached?