I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Stan,

Lend me a quid for a cup of tea.

Certainly Fred.. at the prevailing rates of course -):

Interim results due thu 5th Nov '09. Just hope that isn't a nasty head & shoulders forming on the graph!!!

HARRYCAT - Just noticed this thread, hope you don't mind me picking your brains. I'm more of a trader than an investor so saying that I look for stocks that can be traded short as well as long. EMG has had a great run as an investor yourself in this particular stock do you:-

1. Hold continually irrespective of down moves?

2. Take part profits by selling portions of your holding then topping up on any weakness.

3. Interim results due 5th Nov do you have a set strategy based on past performance, ie do you buy more, hold or react on the day.

I appreciate all the above is obviously personal to you and hope I haven't offended by asking. Cheers Chris.

EMG pay a very good divi, so that is my main reason for buying this stock. I should pay more attention to it during the year, but I try & buy at a low point (the graph is my guide) before the divi date & exit after the divi with a profit. Sometimes I have to wait a while before selling because the sp gets knocked post divi. I usually try & complete the whole process within 4-6 weeks if I can.
I don't really understand how the company is valued (unlike a manufacturer or a miner/oil Co) so I am not confident enough to hold long term with this one.

[Last time bought at 2.73, 25.06.09 & 2.56, 14.07.09. Only 2.73 stock got the divi (1.07.09). Sold both lots 20.07.09 @ 2.85].
Maybe talking myself into holding this stock long term now assuming we are coming out of recession!

Harry - Many thanks for that,good strategy. I'm short at the mo for +8, there have been a couple of broker upgrades recently target price between 400 - 450, obviously depends if the market rally resumes, I'm hoping the stock will drop some more before the interim when I will take profits. If that happens then go long just prior to the interim for a recovery on the day hopefully anticipating a good report. May end up doing the reverse, just have to play it by ear. Cheers!

Next support is 314

hjs - Hit my target and took profits (short) today for +22.50. It may well rally tomorrow who knows, may well be kicking myself if it doesn't. :0)

Chris
Down 20 today. New support 294.

All Banks/Financials down on my list today, but this lot down over 9%!

hjs - Murphys Law eh! Never dreamed it would capitulate this much! On nights all week so asleep during the day till Friday,very frustrating! Still a good profit made though!

I heard today (BBC) that EMG is down this far because their funds under management are down over 3%. Can't find any RNS to support this but looks like someone is in the know before the figures are due 5th Nov. Hopefully any bad news is now factored in.

Harrycat - Have you heard any more re - last post, staying out at mo, even though looking at the chart my instinct says Buy! Interim Thurs seems very cheap but may yet get cheaper any thoughts?

Looks like the DOW & FTSE are heading down for the time being, so am assuming these are going to go down also. Very difficult call, imo, even though the figures may be good, the markets generally look like they are in correction mode.
Ex-divi date is around the last week of Nov, so would not be happy buying stock atm (i.e. I would be short if I spread bet!)

Agree H, Fence sitting certainly a good option with this one at the moment IMHO.

Thanks guys appreciate your thoughts.

Business Financial newswire
"Man Group upped to neutral from sell at UBS, target price raised to 320p from 310p"

UBS Broker note:
"Upgrade to Neutral -
We are upgrading Man to Neutral, from Sell. The upgrade reflects 1) reduced regulatory risk from the CFTC, 2) increased dividend forecasts, as we now expect Man to maintain its 44c DPS in FY10, and 3) recent share price underperformance. Last week, Mans share price fell 12% to underperform the FTSE 100 by 8%. At 313p, Mans shares are yielding 8.6%. Headwinds remain from weak AHL performance

Our upgrade is primarily on valuation grounds, as Man still faces a number of headwinds. The most significant is AHLs on-going poor performance. Last week, AHL fell 3% and is now 12% below its high water mark. AHL troughed at -15% in June, which makes this AHLs slowest ever rebound"

Business Financial Newswire
"Hedge fund manager Man Group reported funds under management (FUM) at end-September of $44bn.

Profit before tax was $302m, 8% above the pre-close estimate after annual fee lock-in at end of September, benefiting from strong end-of-period performance. Diluted earnings per share on total operations was 13.8 cents. Man said it was in a strong financial position with regulatory capital surplus of over $1.6bn, cash balances of $2.1bn and undrawn committed banking facilities of $2.4bn. Interim dividend was maintained at 19.2 cents.

Sales for the period amounted to $5.7bn, with strong private investor sales in Japan, Hong Kong, the Middle East, Europe and Latin America.

Man said there was a significant improvement in private investor and institutional redemption rates, with quarterly institutional redemptions of $0.7bn paid on 1st October compared to redemptions of $1.7bn in Q2 and $3.6bn in Q1.

Man reported funds under management at end-October were broadly unchanged from the previous month. "

Digitallook:
"Better than expected interim figures from Man Group could see some upgrades to those full-year earnings estimates that are at the bottom end of the range, Singer Capital Markets reckons."