.

just because there's (perhaps) oil out there, does not mean that that a company sticks a hole in the ground, albeit having done as much research as possible, and up comes the goodies ..... if that were the case, then across the world the strike rate would be 80% and not 20/25%

True...but this lot do have a lot of prospects...and the planned wells should go through several oil and gas targets one at a time...

you still don't get it do you, or more to the point, you choose to bury your head in the sand ..... whereas a big company, even such as TLW or PMO, have the financial strength to support inevitable dusters - though sp still gets pasted - the likes of FOGL, and more especially BOR and DES, patently do not

It depends with the amount of associated risk that is acceptable to each individual and their portfolio......investing in the Falkland drilling campaign is risky but the upside could be huge......at the moment across the globe there aren't too many really exciting campaigns....TLW and PMO are superb companies but the sp hardly moves in percentage terms...PMO's shares have taken a real knock as of late.....due perhaps for a rebound....and who says this falklands campaign is going to have dusters.....?.....condensate in the first well....yes we want oil but if there is a huge amount of it....anyway : we shall see...

i give up! .... keep eating the hype-tripe, but if some hearty roast beef turns up as the main course THEN tuck in

Hi Cynic,

Whilst I never have a problem with negative posts, it is getting that whenever I see your posts of late, they are 'always' negative, which makes me sure you always look for the negatives (no problem in that) whilst 'never' looking for the positive (problem).

At the moment the birds are singing and the sun is shinning in a clear blue sky.
Why is it that if you were sitting in my garden at the moment, I feel that you would be looking for something negative, being blind to the positives.

I often post negative as well as positive comments on a share, but the difference is I also try to balance between the two.

Not a personal dig, as all your posts are none insulting (not like some) but just a personal observation.

Regards Greek.

fair enough comment in its way, but i'll just cc what i posted on another thread this morning ......

given the hype-tripe so commonly posted, some cold-water reality is all too often what is required

Cynic,

I do agree with you there re hype tripe.

I have equally as much against 'Buy this is fantastic' without either back up facts or well argued opinion/views as I do with any negative type post also poorly argued.
The best posts are always Cold reality, negative or positive.

Greek.

greek if you want reality then the facts speak for themselves no oil apart from Sealion which has yet to attract a farmin oilie with deep pockets, if BOR turn up with another dry hole then the "South Atlantic bubble game" may be over. The only winners being the drilling companies owners and the directors of RKH etc.

Dry hole ?...what dry hole ?....large gas condensate discovery....3 more wells to go...perhaps even a fourth depending on funds and drilling results and time schedule.

rf no oil!

Hi Halifax,

Totally disagree.
The oil is there in sufficient quantities in Sealion alone to attract either a farm-in or a bidder.
If no one was interested we would have heard long before now.
Even if Bor's next drill is dry, there are still a multitude of other prospects to drill.
From reading many of your previous posts, I know we disagree on the prospects of the FI oil fields, so I think we will have to agree to differ.

Regards
Greek.

greek we are all allowed our opinions but you have to respect the facts only one significant oil discovery but surprisingly no farmin offers to date, why? otherwise all virtually dry holes so if BOR's next drill turns out to be a duster then the game is up. tell us why majors are not rushing to spend huge amounts in exploration and development in the Falklands?

Halifax,

Agree re all entitied to opinions, that is why I stated that we will have to agree to differ, as I doubt either of us will change our views.
As to majors not rushing in.
I feel that most of these companies will wait to see if more oil is found to increase the max in these fields, as majors tend not to take the risks (and I do agree there are risks) that smaller to mid companies do.
Anadarko who are probably taking to Rockhopper are one of the majors that appear interested though, and we don't yet know if or how many more are doing so.
I don't doubt that there are several of these small/medium oil producers sniffing round.

Morning all,a cracking day weather wise,day off from down the mine.

No oil has been found in the SFB......maybe some gas,what kind of gas and how much,this will not be know for upto 6 months or so zzzzzzzz.RF untill its in black and white your looking at this with rose tinted glasses.

Oil has been found in the NFB by DES and RKH in a number of prospects.

Any party going to farm in to RKH have to sit round the table with Desire,hence i hold a large number of share in Desire as i see them hitting a pound before RKH hitting £12.

Gas has been found also in the NFB by Argos,RKH, and DES.


When FOGL drill there targets they have a 8% chance of hitting oil.........very slim chance,hence i hold a small number which i will exit before drill results as people will chase rainbows and the price will double from here.

I prefer to be in before a strike .....it's as simple as that.....and there are numerous strikes possible....stacked reservoirs in some cases.....where did you get the 8% from ?.....in a wildcat well it's either you hit oil or not......including Stebbing 3 wells to go...perhaps even 4.....a big gas strike would do no harm either...it's risky but if you want low risk...buy Tesco.....I have nothing against RKH.....that's a good investment but longterm....patience is needed with that one.....this is an excellent drilling campaign with perhaps more discoveries to be had.....gas or oil...I think that most people are forgetting that Borders and Southern are a cash rich company and had no problems in raising cash at 84p.....(62p) now....and are fully financed for the foreseeable future....in the event of Stebbing not coming up to expectation : then a jump into FOGL for the following two or three wells is a possibility......same conversation all over again with Rockhopper prior to the Sealion discovery...really a sense of deja-vu here....

i reckon mark has absolutely the right idea, whether or not his 8% chance of success is correct ..... to be in this and similar up to the hilt is nuts unless you think (russian) roulette offers good odds too - in which case you are totally and irretrievably bonkers!

8% is ridiculous......the sp should rise ahead of FOGL getting the rig; we already have a what seems large gas condensate discovery under our belt.....these next wells are much better for chances as two targets for Stebbing in the upper Cretaceous and Tertiary...and from what I gather oil discoveries have been made in Argentine acreage in these rocks further to the west....and then 5 targets in the Loligo well followed by another well with as yet not known multiple targets....perhaps Scotia or something else......situation just like before in the North Falklands when nobody was interested until Sealion....check out the latest pdf presentation by FOGL taking into accout Darwin's results...

Here is the Goldman comment


We also believe the recent announcement regarding FOGL’s acreage farm-out to another industry player also provides some assurance as to the viability of the company’s acreage, while the gas condensate discovery at the Borders and Southern Darwin East well has also served to highlight the prospectivity of the southern part of the basin (in which FOGL has acreage – albeit with no plans to drill in the current campaign). We assume that the company drills the Loligo and Scotia prospects as part of this drilling campaign. Despite the success of the Darwin East prospect we would still regard these prospects as relatively high risk and as such apply conservative chances of success (8% for Loligo and 8% for Soctia with a c.50% chance of encountering liquids – a higher risking than for Borders & Southern’s remaining Stebbing prospect to reflect the 3D seismic that Borders possesses and the de-risking impact of Darwin).

RF, they are winding you up somewhat posting nonsense. The 8% mentioned by GS is THEIR thinking, it is not a CPR. For example the chances for Darwin were around 26% but GS said 10% chance of hydrocarbons, and it hit hydrocarbons.

Loligo has around a 25% chance of success in normal speak, if a certain broker wishes to apply their own CoS thats their choice. At the end of the day only the drill but will decide what is really there.

I mean, look at the first drill in the North Falklands - a total mess up by DES with the Liz prospect. Horrible thin sands and a fart of gas.

At least Darwin is a massive single thick sandstone and it looks to be full of condensate and gas.

Did everything give up with Liz failure and say no oil in the North ? No, of course not.

I have quite a few muppets filtered - and their posts are invisible, I suggest you do the same if you get taken in and upset by the nonsense they post !!!