http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

oooppss...DES...down as well...

missed a lot of my profit here, but have now reduced holding to "modest"

Canacord note just out

Energy -- Oil and Gas, Exploration and Production

ROCK 'N' ROLL!

Event

Rockhopper Exploration has announced that well 14/10-2 targeting the
Sea Lion prospect is an oil discovery. It has encountered a 150 metre
gross oil column containing 53 metres of net pay in multiple zones. The
thickest of these is 25 metres and average porosity is 19%.
Rockhopper now intends to collect additional data before deciding
whether to plug and abandon the well, or to suspend it for future
testing. The company is also considering whether to drill an appraisal
well on Sea Lion later during the current drilling campaign, although it
has confirmed that it still plans to use the fourth slot in the overall
programme to drill the 156 mmbbl Ernest prospect.

Impact

There is still work to do to establish Sea Lion as a commercial discovery
but the news is good so far. At 53 metres, the net oil column is bigger
than the 30 metres assumed in the 170 mmbbl best estimate in last
years Competent Persons Report (CPR). Indeed, the figure is close to
the 56 metres used to calculate the P10 number of 478 mmbbl.
Meanwhile, we consider average porosity of 19% to be satisfactory even
though it corresponds to the figure used in the P90 case.

Action/Valuation

There are reasons to believe Sea Lion could be bigger than the pre-drill
best estimate but, for the time being, we continue to use 170 mmbbl as
the basis for our valuation of Rockhopper. Allied to an oil price of US$70
per barrel flat real and a 15% discount rate, we estimate a field of this
size would be worth 343p/share. In addition, our assessment of the
expected monetary value (EMV) of the prospects that the company either
will drill or hopes to participate in the drilling of over the next few
months plus its remaining cash is equivalent to 90p/share.

Hence, we raise our target price from 172p/share to 433p/share and maintain our
rating at SPECULATIVE BUY.

Well they have found oil so there will be plenty more excitement in the next year or so...it also paves way for future fund raising as this sort of drilling costs a packet.

The target price and what it is are 2 very different things, GKP's target sp for one broker is 172p or so...the same for many other oilies.

But this is 100% owned and they can go into production should it be that.

Potential IF Sea Lion is over 300M barrels is over 1000p a share (excluding the other prospects).

I estimated yesterday 400p a share pending further news, and if further news is good then it will start to move up closer to 400p levels.

Be real....these figures are off the top of your hat....RKH are and if ....perhaps 4 years away from production.....it's a good start but they will need to spring a 10000 barrels per day test to expect a good upwards of 100p plus.....it's looking good but to expect the sp to shoot up 200p or 300p is expecting in the short term far too much...crikey !, we've just had 100p...that's not bad...

have now bailed out of most at a damn good profit, though if less greed had prevailed it would have been very significantly more, but never mind
for sure there will be a lot more excitement in coming months, especially once the markets regain some equilibrium

Agreed...looking at the rest of the market...not so good...I badly need a turnaround there.....

truly murderous isn't it, so thank goodness for that very welcome yesterday

Proselenes intresting brokers note

i wouldn't disagree with its summation either, but there is a huge amount of research and analysis still to be done before such prices can be justified
meanwhile, i am very happy to be just holding a modest rump (she's very pretty!) in both DES and RKH, which i may well top up in time - but not today!

lemming excitement seeking (almost) instant gratification may now transfer to XEL

Good to see ramping of the highest order here. It'll be a long, long time before there's payback, if any, as even a 500 mln bbl field is probably not that cost-effective without very expensive infrastructure.

Good short-term trades to be had IMO. Anything longer term is still highly speculative and folk should understand that.

Well done to those taking a good profit.

it's quite tricky at the moment to say the least ...... as i write, i note sp has staged an excellent recovery to 92 and suddenly buy book is as good as its counterpart

Any idea which way this is going ?....

required field.

53M net oil pay = circa 300M barrels = 1000p a share.

Sea Lion good derisks 2 other plays worth possibly 250M barrels.

Ernest prospect still to be drilled.

If you cannot see the wood for the tree's then its your own fault. If RKH update that pressure and permeability is good this will be the other side of 300p in short measure.

FT blog today - "rumours of an update on the Falklands find at 3.00pm".

Its risk/reward.

If the next update is good and the price surges all those saying "well done for selling and taking profits" will be mute and avoiding posting.

Greed and fear, thats what drives markets.

I am opting on to the side of "not selling" and waiting for more "good news" and to see much much higher prices.

Time will tell if thats the right call, I am willing to take the risk :)

I am sure some of the sellers wish DID NOT at this point

Ofcourse a profit is a profit and so on

Harrycat, this could be a "huge" find so possible for an update late today or Monday.

Fingers crossed........take the risk or not is the question, I am taking it and happy to be right or wrong on that call.