.

greek we are all allowed our opinions but you have to respect the facts only one significant oil discovery but surprisingly no farmin offers to date, why? otherwise all virtually dry holes so if BOR's next drill turns out to be a duster then the game is up. tell us why majors are not rushing to spend huge amounts in exploration and development in the Falklands?

Halifax,

Agree re all entitied to opinions, that is why I stated that we will have to agree to differ, as I doubt either of us will change our views.
As to majors not rushing in.
I feel that most of these companies will wait to see if more oil is found to increase the max in these fields, as majors tend not to take the risks (and I do agree there are risks) that smaller to mid companies do.
Anadarko who are probably taking to Rockhopper are one of the majors that appear interested though, and we don't yet know if or how many more are doing so.
I don't doubt that there are several of these small/medium oil producers sniffing round.

Morning all,a cracking day weather wise,day off from down the mine.

No oil has been found in the SFB......maybe some gas,what kind of gas and how much,this will not be know for upto 6 months or so zzzzzzzz.RF untill its in black and white your looking at this with rose tinted glasses.

Oil has been found in the NFB by DES and RKH in a number of prospects.

Any party going to farm in to RKH have to sit round the table with Desire,hence i hold a large number of share in Desire as i see them hitting a pound before RKH hitting £12.

Gas has been found also in the NFB by Argos,RKH, and DES.


When FOGL drill there targets they have a 8% chance of hitting oil.........very slim chance,hence i hold a small number which i will exit before drill results as people will chase rainbows and the price will double from here.

I prefer to be in before a strike .....it's as simple as that.....and there are numerous strikes possible....stacked reservoirs in some cases.....where did you get the 8% from ?.....in a wildcat well it's either you hit oil or not......including Stebbing 3 wells to go...perhaps even 4.....a big gas strike would do no harm either...it's risky but if you want low risk...buy Tesco.....I have nothing against RKH.....that's a good investment but longterm....patience is needed with that one.....this is an excellent drilling campaign with perhaps more discoveries to be had.....gas or oil...I think that most people are forgetting that Borders and Southern are a cash rich company and had no problems in raising cash at 84p.....(62p) now....and are fully financed for the foreseeable future....in the event of Stebbing not coming up to expectation : then a jump into FOGL for the following two or three wells is a possibility......same conversation all over again with Rockhopper prior to the Sealion discovery...really a sense of deja-vu here....

i reckon mark has absolutely the right idea, whether or not his 8% chance of success is correct ..... to be in this and similar up to the hilt is nuts unless you think (russian) roulette offers good odds too - in which case you are totally and irretrievably bonkers!

8% is ridiculous......the sp should rise ahead of FOGL getting the rig; we already have a what seems large gas condensate discovery under our belt.....these next wells are much better for chances as two targets for Stebbing in the upper Cretaceous and Tertiary...and from what I gather oil discoveries have been made in Argentine acreage in these rocks further to the west....and then 5 targets in the Loligo well followed by another well with as yet not known multiple targets....perhaps Scotia or something else......situation just like before in the North Falklands when nobody was interested until Sealion....check out the latest pdf presentation by FOGL taking into accout Darwin's results...

Here is the Goldman comment


We also believe the recent announcement regarding FOGL’s acreage farm-out to another industry player also provides some assurance as to the viability of the company’s acreage, while the gas condensate discovery at the Borders and Southern Darwin East well has also served to highlight the prospectivity of the southern part of the basin (in which FOGL has acreage – albeit with no plans to drill in the current campaign). We assume that the company drills the Loligo and Scotia prospects as part of this drilling campaign. Despite the success of the Darwin East prospect we would still regard these prospects as relatively high risk and as such apply conservative chances of success (8% for Loligo and 8% for Soctia with a c.50% chance of encountering liquids – a higher risking than for Borders & Southern’s remaining Stebbing prospect to reflect the 3D seismic that Borders possesses and the de-risking impact of Darwin).

RF, they are winding you up somewhat posting nonsense. The 8% mentioned by GS is THEIR thinking, it is not a CPR. For example the chances for Darwin were around 26% but GS said 10% chance of hydrocarbons, and it hit hydrocarbons.

Loligo has around a 25% chance of success in normal speak, if a certain broker wishes to apply their own CoS thats their choice. At the end of the day only the drill but will decide what is really there.

I mean, look at the first drill in the North Falklands - a total mess up by DES with the Liz prospect. Horrible thin sands and a fart of gas.

At least Darwin is a massive single thick sandstone and it looks to be full of condensate and gas.

Did everything give up with Liz failure and say no oil in the North ? No, of course not.

I have quite a few muppets filtered - and their posts are invisible, I suggest you do the same if you get taken in and upset by the nonsense they post !!!

And do not forget, the same idiots were saying sell and avoid FOGL at 45p - what complete muppets.

i was probably one of those, and if so, am not ashamed to say i have changed my stance just slightly and have a very modest stake here while continuing with RKH, which still has to be the better bet - safer if you like

Can that ramper show us FOGL CPR report where it say 26% chance......No because there is not one.

Darwin did not hit any oil if so show me in there report,another lie.


Someone give pro a hanky to cry in to, u child,funny how when GS write something good about a company Pro is the first to post it up and say GS are the top dog.

cynic, I would not class you as one of the muppets as you are risk averse and open about being risk averse. The muppets are the ones who quickly end up in my filtered poster list so I never have to read their nonsense again.

"risk averse" has levels of degree ...... and yes, i would rather play blackjack than roulette (which i actually find boring) and certainly wouldn't even think of buying lottery tickets

We all need a little bit of luck in life.....in fact we are lucky to be alive !...I am convinced that there is a good chance...(no percentages)... of finding oil or gas in commercial quantities with the next or present wells....

Cynic

You get better odd's playing Bingo , so i have read. And if you bought the max number of Premium bond's you would get an income of 7% from the prize drew from the number of time's that you would win , i think that is what i read

R F

What percentage of your portfolio is invested in FOGL ?

I read that the return on Premiun Bonds is approximately 1½%
From Money Saving Expert site: "The value of prizes paid out is determined by an interest rate, which is currently 1.5%. It usually changes when the Bank of England base rate changes. If you owned every Premium Bond in existence, the amount won over a year would be equal to 1.5% of what you put in. So very roughly, for every £100 put into Premium Bonds on average, you'd expect a £1.50 annual return.
Yet because of the way the prizes are allocated, the majority of people will win much less than the interest rate."

About 20%....Aldwickk....and a ratio of 7 FOGL to 1 BOR.....I'm not sure if I should replace the l with a f....but I won't....

20% in FOGL and 3% in BOR .... with 23% of your portfolio in a couple of very high risk shares no wonder you're sweating

Enjoying the drilling campaign you could say......I wouldn't go any further than that at the moment but the prospects are quite incredible if you take the trouble to read through rns's and pdf presentations for a few hours......all they need now is one more strike of gas condensate or even better light oil and they are in business as so to speak......numerous prospects...loligo with 5 reservoirs..nimrod....scotia....and the present well stebbing with 2 targets......BOR have raised enough money to keep them going and we could have a fifth well spudded if there is sufficient time....great campaign with some incredible possible results.....but I have to agree :...limit your maximums.....don't go further than is possibly acceptable to your sipp or porfolio......as it is I shall stayput......they haven't sent a massive rig costing hundreds of millions of pounds out here without a pretty good chance of finding hydrocarbons in commercial amounts for no reason...