Company website is www.admiralgroup.co.uk

Investec note:
"Admiral Group: Going like a freight train. Downhill.

We retain our Sell recommendation and have cut our TP from 843p to 570p.
The profit warning at 9M 2011 has increased the risk in holding this stock, in our view. Our old TP equated to a PER of 10.4x, a premium to the market which we feel is no longer deserved. There is a significant risk of next years earnings being hit by additional reserve strengthening.

The shares have recovered from the lows following the profit warning. However, we feel a market PER of 8x our forecast 2012 earnings is the most that an optimist could justify and this equates to a share price of 800p.

It seems inevitable to us that as the business continues to grow strongly, there will be shocks such as those that occurred with the 9M IMS. Admiral is still significantly more profitable than all its competitors. It is our view that given the commoditised nature of the UK motor insurance market, this will change as the competition narrows the gap.

It is not clear whether the claims shocks described in the 9M IMS will be a one-off. This note illustrates what could happen with a significant reserve increase next year. If an event like this did occur, the 10% dividend growth we currently forecast would be void. In such an event, it seems likely the company would revert to its original pay-out policy of paying 45% of earnings. This would see the 2012 dividend reduce to something in the order of 44p. It could be that earnings will not be hit by a one-off increase in reserving but the company may feel it sensible to retain more earnings and cut the dividend.

Given all these unquantifiable risks, we retain our Sell recommendation."

Admiral Group PLC : Extension of Reinsurance Ar...

HUG

Admiral Group plc
Extension of Reinsurance Arrangements for UK Car Insurance
3 February 2012

Admiral Group ("Admiral") today announces that it is extending its existing UK Car Insurance reinsurance partnerships with Hannover Re, Mapfre Re, New Re and Swiss Re into 2014. The cost of these arrangements to Admiral is unchanged.

The extended arrangements are in addition to the current co-insurance agreement with Munich Re (covering 40% of the UK business), which runs until at least the end of 2016. Admiral has committed to retain at least 25% of the UK underwriting for the duration of this agreement, whilst the allocation of the balance is at Admiral's discretion.

Share of UK Car Insurance underwriting:

.................2012.........2013..........2014
Admiral..... 25.00%......25.00%......25.00%
Munich Re..40.00%......40.00%......40.00%
New Re......13.25%.....13.25%.......13.25%
Hannover Re8.75%......8.75%..........8.75%
Swiss Re.....7.50%......7.50%..........9.00%
Mapfre Re....3.00%......3.00%..........4.00%
XL Re 2.50% 2.50%
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Commenting on the developments, Chief Executive Officer, Henry Engelhardt, said: "We are happy to announce these extensions to our underwriting arrangements into 2014. Reinsurance has been at the core of Admiral's successful business model since 2000 and we look forward to continuing our mutually beneficial relationships with our partners for many years to come."

Mind the gap!

In auction +10%

Blue-chip motor insurer Admiral has been navigating choppy waters of late.

The stock market darling which owns comparison site Confused.com , has faced a testing few months as it struggles to convince the analysts it can maintain the remarkable levels of growth it has achieved since being founded by entrepreneur Henry Engelhardt in 1991.

On Friday, the Cardiff-based insurer was one of the market's big winners after extending risk-sharing arrangements with a group of leading reinsurers, including Hannover Re and Swiss Re into 2014.

However yesterday, the company hit the skids, sliding 39½ to 998½p after a series of broker downgrades.

Barclays Capital cut Admiral's target price to 959p from £10.19 as part of a wider sector note, which warned that some European insurers will post large losses when they report full-year results over the next few week.

Andy Hughes, analyst at Exane BNP Paribas, also lowered his target price on Admiral by 13pc to 905p. "Admiral's share price reacted strongly on Friday to the announcement that the reinsurance arrangements had been extended to 2014 on current terms," he said. "This prompted some commentators to say that Admiral's reserving issues were in the past and that the reinsurers had audited the level of reserves. We see a key difference between the reinsurance and the shareholder risk. We do not believe the reinsurance structures will be effective in capital terms under [incoming insurance rules] and therefore the extension is rather irrelevant."

Mr Hughes added that he though Admiral's market share was declining.

Final Results.

Admiral Group plc Results for the Year Ended 31 December 2011
7 March 2012

Admiral Group plc ("Admiral" or "the Group") today announces a strong annual
result with a profit before tax of GBP299 million for the year to December 2011,
an increase of 13% over the previous year. Turnover, comprising total premiums
and other revenue, rose 38% to GBP2.19 billion. The Board is proposing a final
dividend for 2011 of 36.5 pence per share, to be paid on 1 June 2012.

2011 Preliminary Results Highlights

* Group profit before tax up 13% at GBP299 million (2010: GBP266 million)
* Record total dividend of 75.6p (2010: 68.1p)
* Return on capital of 59% (2010: 59%)
* Group turnover* up 38% at GBP2.19 billion (2010: GBP1.58 billion)
* Number of customers up 22% to 3.36 million (2010: 2.75 million)
* International car insurance turnover* up 57% to GBP122 million with customers
up 57% to 306,000
* Group full year reserve release GBP10.3 million
* Nearly 5,500 staff will receive free shares worth GBP3,000 in the Employee
Share Scheme based on the 2011 result

* Turnover is defined as total premiums written (including co-insurers' share)
and other revenue

Out of extended auction +92 +8.8%

Extract from Nomura...

Not yet on cruise control, but on the road to recovery

The shares have recovered since the low point at the time of the Q3 profit warning. Although some more data points are required to get more comfort on loss ratio development, we nonetheless believe that 1)management’s conservatism in reserving, 2) action on risk pricing, 3) cautious approach to growth and portfolio composition, and 4) additional initiatives to improve risk selection, means the stock should continue to regain some of its lost premium P/E rating. We retain our Buy.

Target price 1300p

It's possibly the £1 divi attracting the punters?

EDIT : Disregard. Not correct.

You cynic! :-)

Imagine what will happen to the sp once it goes ex-divi! Though profit takers will presumably have moved on before that.

The final dividend is 36.5p (includes the special dividend) and it goes ex-div on 2 May. Some way off a quid per share?

Sorry, totally misread it. I thought it was 36.5p + the 75.6p. It is actually 17.4p + 19.1p special.

Q1 2012 Interim Management Statement

26 April 2012

Admiral Group plc ("Admiral" or "the Group") today releases its Interim Management Statement covering the period 1 January 2012 to 26 April 2012. Unless otherwise stated, figures quoted are for the quarter ended 31 March 2012, with comparatives reflecting the position compared against the same quarter in 2011.

Comment from Henry Engelhardt, Chief Executive Officer

"Admiral has made a good start to the year with performance in the first quarter as we had expected. Our business continues to grow and prosper and our expectations for the full year remain positive and unchanged."

Group Highlights

Group turnover* increased 9% to £586 million (Q1 2011: £539 million)
Group vehicle count increased 17% to 3.4 million (Q1 2011: 2.9 million)
UK car insurance vehicle count increased 13% to 3.0 million (Q1 2011: 2.7 million); as anticipated, this represents an annualised growth rate in the first quarter of the order of 5%
International car insurance vehicle count increased 83% to 350,000 (Q1 2011: 190,000)
No change in claims trends from Q4 2011
UK other revenue per vehicle stable at £84
Financial position remains strong
*Turnover is defined as total premiums written (including co-insurers' share) and Other Revenue

Admiral, the FTSE 100 motor insurer, will report its first-half results on Thursday, when it will hope to convince its doubters that it can maintain the impressive profits it has posted over the past few years. Fears over the company’s future growth have intensified in recent months amid concern that an outright ban on insurers earning so-called referral fees from third parties will hit its profitability.

Pre-tax profits are expected to hit £167.7m, compared with £160.6m last year.

Results for the Six Months Ended 30 June 2012

H1 2012 Highlights

• Group profit before tax up 7% at GBP171.8 million (H1 2011: GBP160.6 million)
• Earnings per share up 9% at 47.3 pence (H1 2011: 43.3 pence)
• Interim dividend up 15% at 45.1 pence per share (2011 interim: 39.1 pence)
• Group turnover* up 6% at GBP1.17 billion (H1 2011: GBP1.10 billion)
• Group vehicle count up 11% to 3.50 million from 3.15 million at 30 June 2011
• 6,500 employees receive GBP1,500 of shares each in the Employee Share Scheme
based on the H1 2012 result

*Turnover is defined as total premium written (including co-insurers' share) and
Other Revenue

Admiral Group is one of the few FTSE 100 companies that is less than 50 years old. It is also one of a small number of listed companies that is headquartered in Wales. I've recently been looking at Admiral ahead of the IPO of its competitor, Direct Line.

Admiral operates a number of insurance brands such as elephant.co.uk, confused.com and, of course, Admiral. The sector has fallen out of favour in recent months -- many market commentators have expressed concerns over the long-term profitability of the car insurance industry. These concerns have pushed down share valuations.

I think the market may be too mean in its appraisal of Admiral. After all, this is a very successful company: Admiral has increased its shareholder dividend every year since 2005, while its sales in 2011 were more than double the number achieved in 2008.

In short, Admiral's management has a better record of operating in this industry than investment analysts have of forecasting its future.

Interim Management Statement

Group highlights

Group vehicle count up 8% to 3.55 million (Q3 2011: 3.28 million)

Year-to-date annualised UK car insurance vehicle growth of 3%

Year-to-date Group turnover* increased 3% to £1,740 million (YTD Q3 2011: £1,686 million); UK car insurance turnover* flat at £1,532 million (YTD Q3 2011: £1,526 million)

Third quarter Group turnover* decreased by 2% to £570 million (Q3 2011: £582 million); UK car insurance turnover* decreased by 5% to £502 million (Q3 2011: £527 million)

UK other revenue per vehicle at £79**

UK claims trends continue to be encouraging

On track to meet our expectations for 2012

Financial position remains strong

Preliminary Results

2012 Preliminary Results Highlights

Group profit before tax up 15% at £345 million (2011: £299 million)

Earnings per share up 16% at 95.1 pence (2011: 81.9 pence)

Final dividend of 45.5 pence per share bringing the 2012 total dividend to 90.6 pence
per share up 20% (2011: 75.6 pence per share)

Return on capital of 60% (2011: 59%)

Group turnover* up 1% at £2.22 billion (2011: £2.19 billion)

Group vehicle count up 6% to 3.55 million (2011: 3.36 million)

International car insurance turnover* up 33% to £163 million with customers up 42% to 436,000 (2011: £122 million and 306,000 customers)

6,500 staff will receive Free Shares worth £3,000 in the Employee Share Scheme; £1,500 worth of shares based on the H1 2012 result, in addition to a further £1,500 worth of shares awarded in accordance with the full-year result.

* Turnover is defined as total premiums written (including co-insurers' share) and other revenue

ADM Going Ex. Div this week paying a VG. 3.88% 'ish which includes an extra divi , Not touching Car insurers at the moment personally.