Tullow Oil plc is one of the largest independent oil and gas, exploration and production companies in Europe. Tullow Oil produces over 56,000 boepd, with a primary focus on UK Gas and West African Oil, underpinned by development projects in the UK, Africa and South Asia.

            Red = 25 day moving average.           Green = 200 day moving average.

my chartist friend tells me that 397 is/was an important resistance ...... TLW has tried and failed to break through it 3 times previously, and today is the 4th ..... this may well be a good time to buy, and at least one is buying something of proven quality! ...... that said, i think the RSI is a bit toppy at about 70.

have i put my money there? ...... yes, in a fairly modest way

cynic - me too.

I have also bought a few Hardman at 82p because assuming the t/o goes through, and it looks like it will, I will get 0.222890 Tullow shares per Hardman shares assuming I get a full quota.

Should Kingfisher become a significant find before then, and Tullow seem very excited about Uganda recently, if Aigrette comes in with gas and provided the vote is carried for the t/o, it could work out a darn site more value per share than 4.08 which is today's closing price for Tullow.

Tullow is also a good oil stock to hold as the currently produce 50kbopd, with a view without Hardman of producing 60kbopd by year end.

So add 12% (more or less).

Now you can see why I am not bothering with Sterling till they have a go in Madagascar?

No need.

Posted by WShak on TMF.

This was a result of an analyst presentation in Dublin yesterday(Thursday)

"Tullow held an analyst presentation yesterday focussed on their exploration strategy, organisation and opportunities. It provided more depth and detail to the four play categorisation first elucidated at their interim presentation, and covered in our note Focus on Exploration on September 12th. We were struck by the high level of activity in the exploration team. Part of this is to redress the gap that Tullow has traditionally had a weaker reputation in exploration than it enjoys in production.
The conference was about a lot more than Uganda, but there was obviously going to be a lot of interest in the drilling campaign, which continues to shape up well. In our view investors have still not caught up with the enthusiasm in the company. The Kingfisher well, the fourth consecutive discovery, had been announced as a success before the conference and there was little direct new news. But we have the clear impression that Tullow are moving forward with a confidence beyond that which has been publicly announced. Is this premature? We don't think so. In other areas Tullow tends to the cautious side (production targets, financial structure), and Kingfisher ticks the four basic requirements for a working reservoir (trap, seal, hydrocarbon charge and flowability).

The remaining issue is the scale, and Manu Wope, the exploration manager for South and East Africa, appeared confident and mentioned three elephant fields at Kingfisher, Pelican and Ngassa. The confirmation of oil above the target depth not only reduces risk on the target itself in Kingfisher, but also for Ngassa, which will probably be drilled late in 2007.
Tullow is undertaking significant additional seismic activity to enhance their understanding of the opportunities. This is not just across all three blocks in Uganda, but also in Madagascar and Tanzania (Hardman) and in other regions. Tullow was keen to stress the potential read-across from Uganda to Madagascar, further south along the E. African rift.
We are surprised that, at a time when there is so much activity and opportunity on which to focus in Uganda, Tullow is so aggressive in accelerating potential elsewhere.

The strong pipeline should allow it to pace for a marathon instead it is running at a sprint, with the risk of stretch on resources. We think we may understand why and suggest that Tullow could be worried that as its consolidation with Hardman settles and the scale of Uganda becomes clearer in 2007, they may themselves become a clearer acquisition target. Worse, unless Tullow can show some active evidence of the potential from other high impact opportunities, the focus of the bid on Uganda will pass the value in other areas to the new shareholders. When I proposed this interpretation to one of the management team, he confirmed the logic of that strategic assessment .

Our conclusion. Tullow does not have the tests let alone proof at this stage of the scale of discovery in Uganda. But their actions and behaviour (and nobody has a better view than they do) are fully consistent with genuine and directed excitement. Uganda could indeed be a transformational discovery beyond the size of Tullow at its present scale. Tullow look to be on the edge of a seismic shift not only in their exploration but also in their corporate scale and ultimate structure.

and

Goodbodys

Tullow (Add, Closing Price 3.93)
Analyst Day.
Analyst: Gerry Hennigan
Tullow's analyst day in Dublin focussed on exploration activity across all the regions of current interest and while detailed in terms of information, there was limited additional newsflow beyond that previously provided. That said, portfolio expansion was a central theme and Tullow clearly intends to further its growth in a controlled manner. A summary, by region, of relevant prospects, etc. to be drilled prior to the end of 2007 includes: (i) UK (North Sea) - two wells to drill prior to year end, a further four to five next year, and results from the 24th licensing round in the North Sea pending; (ii) Hardman Area (Mauritania and South America) - eight to ten prospects to be drilled in Mauritania with a further four wells planned for Guyane and Suriname combined; (iii) West Africa (Cote D'Ivoire, Ghana, Gabon, Angola) - eight wells planned, eight farm-ins under review, three new blocks to be announced (two of which are imminent), and actively pursuing licensing rounds; (iv) South & East Africa - (Uganda, Namibia, Madagascar) - one well ongoing (Kingfisher), three planned (Nzizi in Uganda, and two appraisal wells in Kudu) with the potential of further prospects in Uganda to be drilled post the processing of seismic in H1 2007; and (v) South East Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) - two wells planned for Kohat in Pakistan and up to four in India on the CB-ON-1 licence (south of the Cairn field). At a corporate level the clear message was a focus on core strengths and inherent expertise in certain geological 'plays'. The intention is to leverage that capability to expand beyond the current scope of operations, with as many as 170 potential prospects according to management. The roadmap, in our view, points to a belief within the company that it is now of sufficient size and expertise (50 geologists and geophysicists) to enable it to seek new opportunities in areas such as Mainland Europe (Netherlands, Norway, etc.), South America and South East Asia (Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Vietnam, etc.). As such management has raised the 'bar' on its ambitions and outlined its objective towards extending its growth, which we believe will be both through organic development and further acquisitions."

Pretty convincing stuff here.

TLW was on the bubble today, and now you know why ......

" Tullow Oil PLC said Heritage Oil, the operator of the Kingfisher-1 exploration well in Uganda -- in which Tullow is a 50 pct partner -- reported a test flow of 4,120 barrels of oil per day.
Tony Buckingham, Heritage's CEO said: 'The Albert Basin now looks increasingly like it has the elements to make it a world-class petroleum basin. The flow rates, even constrained by available completion and test facilities, far exceeded our expectations.'
The Kingfisher prospect is a very large structural high that is expressed at surface on the bed of Lake Albert. Seismic data indicate the Kingfisher prospect has an extent of up to 70 square kilometres."


That sp has also surged through 397 resistance will give additional impetus as chartists also jump in.

Great result from Kingfisher.

A very good rflow rate from a previously unknown target.

The rapid buying of blocks oppsite in the DRC arewa bit of a clue that this could be mahusive for Tullow, (and me).

DYOR I did and I'm still buying.

Have another one..........

News release


Tullow Oil plc - Nzizi-1 Exploration Well Update


13 November 2006 -Hardman Resources, the operator of the Nzizi-1 exploration
well in Uganda, in which Tullow Oil plc (Tullow) is a 50% partner, today issued
the following press release.


UGANDA: Exploration Area 2 Nzizi-1 Exploration/Appraisal Well


Since Hardman's last report, Nzizi-1 has been drilled to a total depth of 1,065
metres in a 6 3/4' hole. As at midnight on 13 November, wireline logs were
being run after having encountered oil shows across the target intervals.


Nzizi-1 is testing a structure up-dip of the Mputa discovery and was designed to
evaluate the equivalent oil bearing reservoirs intersected in the Mputa
structure. Nzizi-1 is situated approximately 5.5 kilometres to the southwest of
Mputa-2 appraisal well.

Just harping back to this RNS issued last week.

07/11/2006

7 November 2006 Hardman Resources, today issued the following drilling update on the Nzizi Exploration/Appraisal well in Uganda in which Tullow is a 50% partner.

Hardman Resources Limited (Hardman) provides the following update on its drilling activities:

UGANDA: Exploration Area 2 Nzizi-1 Exploration/Appraisal Well

At 2:00pm on 3 November 2006, the Nzizi-1 well was spudded in Exploration Area 2, Uganda, using the Eagle Drill-1 rig.

The well has been drilled to a depth of 358 metres in the 9 7/8 inch section and casing has been run. As at midnight 5 November, the operation was preparing to set the blow out preventer (BOP), following which the well will be drilled ahead to total depth of 1,030 metres.

Nzizi-1 will test a structure up-dip of the recent Mputa discovery. The well is designed to evaluate the equivalent oil bearing reservoirs intersected in the Mputa structure. Nzizi-1 is situated approximately 5.5 kilometres to the southwest of Mputa-2 appraisal well.


Any thoughts anyone?

i think TLW is a damn good share with plenty of upside regardless of what this latest rns may or may not imply

Good morning cynic.

I agree.

http://www.hdr.com.au/documents/news/00514_ASX%2016%20Nov%20-%20Nzizi%20Drilling%20Update%20and%20Chinguetti%20Reserves.pdf

"Exploration Area 2: Nzizi-1
Since the last report on the Nzizi-1 well, logging operations have been completed and pressure
measurements taken.
Good oil shows were encountered during drilling over a gross interval of approximately 180
metres, directly above basement, in a similar section to that encountered by the Mputa-1 well, 6
kilometres northeast of Nzizi-1.
Wireline logs and pressure measurements indicate an interbedded sequence of oil bearing
sands and shales. No fluid samples or testing operations were planned for this well as it was
drilled in a slimhole configuration and consequently it will now be plugged and abandoned.

The vote was 94% in favour.

Bye bye Hardman Resources.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20061218/pdf/00679287.pdf

"UGANDA thinks that it and neighboring countries have discovered oil deposits large enough to rival those of some of the world's greatest petroleum producers, according to Uganda's Energy and Mineral Development Minister Daudi Migereko......"

The item is a good overview.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/01092007/business/oil_find_in_uganda_may_change_game_business_john_crudele.htm

Pinched from O&G board - ManSiarad was the poster.

an interesting article, but hidden in there ...... Much of this could be wishful thinking. ..... says it all!!

meanwhile TLW, along with the rest of the oil sector, is struggling with a (comparatively) low crude price ...... however, i am more than happy to keep holding them, along with the mariginally more speccy BUR, as in the fullness of time (6/12 months?), i am sure there will be plenty of upward scope

Well we broke through the 200 day ma convincingly, so where will it stop?

about 350 is my guess .... looks to be support there ...... crude continues to plummet, but as a quality stock and one that may even prove to be a t/o target, i think i shall stay with it

Latest Kingfisher -1 report.

......Kingfisher-1A well has been successfully cased to 2,502 metres and drilled to a depth of 2,962 metres.

New drilling in the deeper section has encountered three additional potential
oil-bearing zones totalling approximately 40 metres between 2,260 and 2,370
metres, evidenced by wireline logging and formation pressure testing. Planned
testing of these zones will follow completion of drilling, to a target depth of
between 3,000 and 4,000 metres, which it is estimated will take up to a further
45 days. Test equipment has remained on site in readiness for the testing..........."

now fingers crossed that sp can hold or even improve on this level

cynic is the crossing of the lines, if it happens, called a golden cross?

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS - news) has resumed coverage of Tullow Oil (Dublin: TQW.IR - news) , appending an overweight recommendation and a 450p target.

and

http://www.hemscott.com/news/latest-news/item.do?newsId=38534446586491

Tullow Oil shares were also in fine fettle, adding 22 pence to 398 on news it had found hydrocarbons at the Kingfisher-1A well...

In response, Merrill Lynch reiterated its 'buy' advice on the UK oil group and said it has increased its net asset value (NAV) by a conservative 32 pence a share to 428 to reflect this news, while recognising a further material Ugandan NAV increase is likely in the coming months as Tullow conducts further appraisal work on its five discoveries.

The broker said it believes this work will likely both materially increase existing Ugandan reserve estimates and further de-risk the company's large inventory of un-drilled Lake Albertine leads and prospects.

The broker added it has raised its price target on Tullow to 470 pence.

not in this instance .... golden cross is when both 50 and 200 dma (typically) are on upward trend ..... whoops .... will post chart with 50+ 200 .... above is 25 + 200.