Epic : AEX

Aminex PLC is an established upstream oil and gas company, listed on the London and Irish Stock Exchanges, which has operated internationally since 1991.

Aminex produces oil and gas in the USA and has ongoing exploration activity in Tanzania, North Korea. Madagascar, Kenya and Egypt. Aminex also owns AMOSSCO Ltd, an international oilfield service, supply and logistics company.


Main Web Site : http://www.aminex-plc.com

Amossoco Web Site : http://www.amossco.com/

Dec 2007 Company Presentation : Link to PDF File



Sept 07 - Operations Detail & Update : In post 2

28th Sept 07 - Oil Barrel Write Up : In post 6

North Korea Info : In post 3

Planned Drilling :

Commencing late Oct 07 (or early Nov) - Kiliwani-1 - Tanzania
to be followed by second Tanzania well.

Commencing Nov 07 - West esh el Mellahah Block 2 - Egypt



* Note : AEX is fully listed (not AIM) and so can be ISA'd


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I made a nice sum on the last ride up to near 50p, perhaps it's time to be getting back in especially with potential NK developments.

The big one coming up is the Tanzania drill and also Egypt, all in the coming couple of months, although NK and positive sentiment there will not do any harm.

And just in case anyone is questioning, then AEX is fully listed, and so can be put into an ISA. (Its not an AIM stock, its got a full listing)

For the record this was the Shares Mag comment from late August :

Aminex (AEX:AIM) 19.75p

Market Cap: 47.8 million

3-month relative strength: -4.6%, 1-year relative strength: -32.8%

The firms position is supported by its production in the US and it has and the exclusive rights to drill in North Korea. However, of potentially more interest are its plays in East Africa. The management has good experience in the region and the assets are not insignificant. With the area around Tanzania becoming increasingly attractive to the majors, if Aminex is successful with its current drilling programme there is potential for a farm-in with a much larger operator. Edison Investment Research believe that Aminex is already operating at a discount to its NAV, even if its exploration upside is ignored.

The current share price is certainly covered by the US assets. The drilling programme in Africa is of huge potential for the relatively near future. On top of this the apparent thaw in relations between North Korea and the rest of the world could add further huge potential to the share price.

The current share price appears to have Africa and North Korea in for nothing.

And this was the May 2007 Edison comment (when the SP was 23.8p) :


Investment summary: Eastern promise

On 15 May, Aminex announced an intended placing and rights issue to raise a total of 16.8m gross. The fundraising is subject to an EGM in June. On the same day. the company also reported that it had signed a 25% farm out of its Nyuni licence (Offshore Tanzania) to UAE-based Rakgas. We feel that the high level of exploration activity in Tanzania, reduced cost exposure associated with the farm-down, and the near-term commitment to drill makes for an exciting investment opportunity.

Big potential attracts the Majors

Of the 100 new licences granted in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2006, eight were in Tanzania. The only countries that saw a larger uptake of new acreage were the established producing areas of Nigeria (16) and Angola (10). The presence of companies such as Statoil, Shell, Total and Petrobras adds further weight to the view that East Africa and Tanzania, in particular, are seen as having significant exploration potential. If Aminex's current drilling programme proves successful it may provide an opportunity for attractive farm in deals with significantly larger operators.

An opportune proposition

An area seen by the Majors as having high impact potential, a farm-down to reduce the cost exposure of drilling and a commitment to explore in the near term all bode well when analysing the potential for upside in any oil and gas project. With an attractive opportunity identified and a clear plan for "proving up" reserves, the fundraising provides investors with a good balance between exploration risk and an opportunity to quickly achieve high returns on the back of a successful 2007 drilling campaign.

Valuation: Discount to market cap

Our current valuation based on Aminex's US production suggests a NAV of 47.4m, representing a c.7p premium on the current market cap. As per Edison policy, we have placed no value on the exploration assets, but do suggest that opportunities with the potential to make significant immediate returns on E&P projects are at a premium.

Latest operations update and detail in post 2 now.

Moving up nicely this morning.

L2 all blue and 1 v 1 @22.25/22.5

North Korea oil exploration still an idea - Seoul
Mon Oct 8, 2007 8:34am BST
By Yoo Choonsik

It said an Irish company obtained the right to produce and distribute oil in North Korea in 2005, including sea territories, but has not released any achievement since. It named the company as Aminex but did not provide further information on the company.

Aminex's Web site shows it is an upstream oil and gas firm listed on the London and Irish stock exchanges, which has operated internationally since 1991, and has produced oil and gas in the United States, with ongoing exploration works in Tanzania, North Korea, Madagascar Egypt and Kenya

http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKSEO15687320071008

Nice to see that mention NabCom, will make Aminex known to a wider audience.

Nice rise (so far) today.

With the drilling programme in Africa scheduled over the next few months this could be quite a lively minnow !!!

Well, Tanzania drill one might happen late this month (or early next) and Egypt planned for November start, certainly is going to be lively.

Still looking lively. Underlying production and other assets should see this at around 30p levels..........and from there the drilling can give significant upside.

Whilst it remains below 30p, it remains undervalued presently, pending potential upside from three coming drills.

On the move again.

250K MM buy in there just now.

Another decent day, and another step towards 30p, which is fair value if you take exploration potential as nothing.............in other words 30p is still cheap imv.

A good site for getting information on Tanzania oil and gas.

http://www.tpdc-tz.com/exploration.htm



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Added the North Korea presentation to post 3 information on NK.

http://www.aminex-plc.com/Resources/c_DPRK_Summary.pdf



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Thanks to a post on TMF for highlighting it.

Artumas Group Inc. are Aminex's 'neighbours' in terms of locations being explored in Tanzania. ( http://www.artumas.com/html/tanzania.php )

Artumas have just issued an update on the Mnazi Bay Concession in Tanzania which reads well, and perhaps offers an insight to the potential in the Aminex area.


The report is a PDF document, you can download at the link below :


http://hugin.info/136496/R/1159490/224673.pdf


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From the Davy note in March 2007, if you allow for higher oil prices now, you can say that the US 2P reserves are worth around 20p a share, if not more. From this, you can see that the present price allows little for the other assets, which is why AEX at its present price offers so much upside for very little risk, imv. :

http://www.rte.ie/business/2007/morningrep/download/0305davy.pdf

5th March 2007

"OPC, an independent oil and gas engineering firm, has concluded from an analysis of Aminexs US interests that its net 2P reserves total 5.4 mmboe. This is more than double the number used in our valuation model and from which our NAV of 37p per share is derived. Aminex values its 2P reserves at $84m versus our valuation of $45m for all of its US assets (2P reserves + P3 resources).
Aminexs market cap is currently some 30m. Its valuation of its US reserves suggests that its market cap should be closer to 45m, even before adjusting for the price of an option on its exploration portfolio. This simple comparison suggestsat least 50% upside in the current share price.
Drilling and 3D seismic acquisition is planned for Aminexs US properties over the coming months."

Turkey seems a new driver for higher oil prices, along with the US data etc......bring on 100$ a barrel soon I hope :)

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=36518

...................................................Crude oil prices have shot up to levels above $83 per barrel as other discerning news emerged at the same time. Turkish threats to start a major military operation in Iraqs Kurdistan, largely to destroy the military bases of the Turkish-Kurdish rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), could result in a major destabilization of the whole region.

Turkish military operations have been halted the last two years, as the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq has prevented this to happen. PKK forces have been able to feel rather safe in Iraqs Kurdistan, which has become a defacto independent region, ruled by Kurdish parties that are still part of the Baghdad government. American officials have warned that they will not allow Turkish forces to enter Iraq to quell PKK operations the next months.

A major political confrontation already has been brewing between Ankara and Washington, as Turkish generals have been preparing to invade Iraq openly. At the same time, a U.S. House of Representatives vote on the Armenian issue has ended in a declaration that the killings of hundreds of thousands of Armenians by Turkey at the end of World War I was genocide, putting additional oil on the fire.

The coming months will continue to be volatile, as crude oil does not seem to be heading to a slowdown. Price levels will keep high, as market fundamentals only show a tendency for further constraints.