The takeover will have to beat 4, thats 20+% up on the present price, worth a punt

Liberum note:
"Past episodes of slowing GDP growth suggest UK house prices could fall by 3% in 2017. Using this as our central case drives EPS cuts of around 18%, and target price cuts of around 20%. Valuations across the sector are much more compelling after a 34% fall in the shares, especially with dividends mainly intact. We limit our enthusiasm to three high conviction stocks: Bellway (BUY), Berkeley (up from HOLD to BUY) and Gleeson (BUY)."