http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Cynic there is a better map here and drill locations

http://www.desireplc.co.uk/images/uploaded/6783585_5405333.pdf

.

markymar - I'm extremely capable of reading and understanding (fully) the CPR. ;-)))

thanks marky, but Sealion is close to 500m contour which, as i (stupidly?) commented, sounds a lot deeper than 200m

We need some "uptodate" maps...

Out again ....another profit...boy !...is this fun or what ?.

just don't get sucked in by others on here rf.....

No....could be a non commercial well....but the future of drilling in the falklands looks assured.

Also don't forget, rf, that you are our first line of defense should the Argies kick off, so save some of the profit for your travel expenses! ;o)

gulp !....

future for drilling is great....as for finding anything.....????

This is just the start....in a year the rig will still be here...

A recap post of the comments from the so called "experts".



-----------------

Oriel

"Rockhopper Exploration (RKH, under rveiew, 77p) - Sea Lion oil discovery, initial thoughts

Rockhopper has announced that initial indications are that the Sea Lion well in the North Falklands is an oil discovery

The well encountered a 150m gross sand and shale interval with 53m of net pay in multiple pay zones. The thickest zone had net pay of 25m

Average porosity is c19%, but there was no indication of permeabilities at this stage. This remains the key uncertainty given the quality of reservoirs encountered to date in the North Falklands, including the Barremian interval being targeted in this prospect, has been variable

Additional logging information is being collected before a decision is made whether to abandon the well or suspend it for further testing at a later date.

The net pay encountered appears to be larger than that used to estimate the P50 pre-drill resources of 170mmb for the prospect. Our analysis of the seismic time section in the CPR suggests the targeted reservoir interval had pay potential of c20-30m to derive the pre-drill volumes, although this has not been confirmed by the company

Based on a notional US$8.5/boe valuation (may prove to be conservative in a US$90/bbl environment), a 170mmb discovery would be worth c600p/sh

Although early days this is clearly an encouraging result and the positive share price reaction is not overdone. The result also has positive implications for further prospectivity on both Rockhopper's and Desire's acreage in the North Falklands, particularly the Barremian fan plays on the eastern basin margin (Rockhoppers' analogue prospects include Fox at c144mmb and Stephens at c106mmb)

Our recommendation is under review pending a further update on the well, especially any data regarding reservoir quality"



----------------------


Canacord

Energy -- Oil and Gas, Exploration and Production

ROCK 'N' ROLL!

Event

Rockhopper Exploration has announced that well 14/10-2 targeting the
Sea Lion prospect is an oil discovery. It has encountered a 150 metre
gross oil column containing 53 metres of net pay in multiple zones. The
thickest of these is 25 metres and average porosity is 19%.
Rockhopper now intends to collect additional data before deciding
whether to plug and abandon the well, or to suspend it for future
testing. The company is also considering whether to drill an appraisal
well on Sea Lion later during the current drilling campaign, although it
has confirmed that it still plans to use the fourth slot in the overall
programme to drill the 156 mmbbl Ernest prospect.

Impact

There is still work to do to establish Sea Lion as a commercial discovery
but the news is good so far. At 53 metres, the net oil column is bigger
than the 30 metres assumed in the 170 mmbbl best estimate in last
years Competent Persons Report (CPR). Indeed, the figure is close to
the 56 metres used to calculate the P10 number of 478 mmbbl.
Meanwhile, we consider average porosity of 19% to be satisfactory even
though it corresponds to the figure used in the P90 case.

Action/Valuation

There are reasons to believe Sea Lion could be bigger than the pre-drill
best estimate but, for the time being, we continue to use 170 mmbbl as
the basis for our valuation of Rockhopper. Allied to an oil price of US$70
per barrel flat real and a 15% discount rate, we estimate a field of this
size would be worth 343p/share. In addition, our assessment of the
expected monetary value (EMV) of the prospects that the company either
will drill or hopes to participate in the drilling of over the next few
months plus its remaining cash is equivalent to 90p/share.

Hence, we raise our target price from 172p/share to 433p/share and maintain our
rating at SPECULATIVE BUY.



---------------


Sector Watcher

Rockhopper made an oil discovery in the Northern basin of the Falklands islands. The Seal Lion well encountered a 53 net pay in multiple pay zones with an average porosity of 19%. The net pay is much higher than expected under the P50 case which suggests the 170mmbbl pre-drill estimate is lower than what Sea Lion holds. That said with the porosity more in-line with the P90 case, the final amount of oil recoverable should be lower than the P10 case.

RKH now intends to collect additional data before deciding whether to plug and abandon the well, or to suspend it for future testing. The company is also considering whether to drill an appraisal well on Sea Lion later in the drilling campaign, although it has confirmed that it still plans to use the fourth slot in the overall programme to drill the 156 mmbbl Ernest prospect.

Bottom line: Sea Lions commerciality is not yet established but the final number in place could be larger than the pre-drill estimate. Slapey is still using the 170mmbbl from the CPR as the basis for his Sea Lion valuation. On NPV15 and $70 oil flat real he gets a RENAV of 433p/share. There is more room to go for RKH. BUY

get a life....... your years away from any production....lot of dealing with profits to be done before then. if you can afford to leave cash to stand still and still trade ...good on you...bb

rf...on it's way down again....reckon you'll be back in again before close...lol

Balerboy, you sound like one of those who sold out or are presently nursing a loss making short.

You may like to be aware :

The size of the this find is to be confirmed yet, it looks like it may be much higher than the expected.

They WILL drill the Ernest prospect in a couple of months.

This derisks the other leads (worth perhaps a median additional 250M barrels).

This could well be deemed a "commercial reservoir" and an appraisal drill planned in for later this year.

Do you not understand comments like "Based on a notional US$8.5/boe valuation (may prove to be conservative in a US$90/bbl environment), a 170mmb discovery would be worth c600p/sh"

That is how you value reserves still in the ground, if they were in production you would value not at 8.5US$ but you would value at near actual selling price of oil.


LOL. You do have a lot to learn.

EMU actually makes a very fair point ..... though it is now increasingly likely that there will be good and commercial finds in the region, nothing is yet proven and certainly it will be 3/5 years after that before anything is actually on stream ..... nevertheless, excitement and volatility are equally almost assured in the coming months

cynic, thats fine if production is a few years away.

Simply value the oil at around 8 US$ to 10US$ as proven reserves until its into production.

So a 100% owned 300M barrel find would be worth how much ?

once you have proven reserves, the game changes, but by how much sp will profit from that and when is anyone's guess

The danger is if this is not a commercial well....look at TLW-AEX-SOLO......found probably the edge of a reservoir but no flowing hydrocarbons and the sp has been unfairly savaged....the same could happen here....so this is a gamble at the moment....I'm not sure whether to come back in or not with a big buy....would hate to see the sp go back down to below 60p again.