Well, this is my share for 2004.

The grounding of BA flight 223 to Washington has been all over the news this week. Along with the pictures of police armed with semi-automatic weapons and demands for armed rangers on planes the question of flight security is firmly back on the agenda.

Enter 7m British company Image Scan Holdings whose 3D X-ray baggage handling technology represents a 'Best of Class' solution to problems of baggage screening.

The advantage of Image Scan's machine over convential 2D machines is that it provides a 3D view of a scanned bag - providing psychological depth clues which have been shown to be important in identifying threat objects. 3D views are currently provided by CT scanners but these are slow and expensive. Image Scan's machine provides comparable results using X-ray. It is much less expensive and involves no loss of speed over conventional 2D scanners



Contracts are being signed and some major OEMs are trialling Image Scan's cameras in their own systems.
Broker forecasts are for EBITDA breakeven this year and eps of 6p in 2005 (shares are currently 39p to buy). The market Cap is just 7m

The FAA (now TSA) are swimming in grants with $Millions and $Millions being awarded to security companies. They have purchased two machines from Image Scan (machines are also on trial at Heathrow and Midlands airports) and have paid ISH for the development of 3D Image Threat Projection software which has been installed in beta form on these machines. Threat Image Projection(TIP) software should become compulsory on all machines during 2004. It trains bagage handlers and screens their performance by introducing threat images (knives, guns etc) into the image captured by the X-ray scanner.

What is better, they are not a 1 product company. The pipeline is exciting. They have a range of 3D solutions for industrial non-destructive testing available now, medical applications are ivolved in development of an automated system related to cervical smeer test screening expected 2005- currently the only unautomated major screening programme in the UK... And they are developing a 3D scanner for examining occluded electrical components post-assembly. Key IP is in the area of X-ray examination of plastic and non-magnetic components.

Image of an all-plastic inhaler pump
using ISH's DEX camera for industrial/medical
non-destructive testing:

(Key IP is in the area of x-ray imaging plastics and non-magnetic metals)

Look a very interesting prospect for 2004, IMO. The share price slid relentlessly last year but enjoyed a bounce last month. That trend re-commenced last week. Sitting on 1.4m cash (having raised fresh funds in the summer) and having now transitioned from pure r&D into a company actively marketing its commercial products there appears little downside in the price (the FD was buying at 35p). Upside looks considerable.

Durlacher published a research note in November - well worth getting hold of a copy. A couple of snippets:

"International legislation has delivered the security sector its most significant boost for almost a decade with the entire security industry looking set to become a hot sector for the next couple of years"

"We believe the Image Scan instrument to be 'best in class' and currently the only real time 3D X-ray device in the industry"

"Growth in the security sector has been in excess of 50% pa over the last 2 years....with equipment replacement cycles falling from an average 6 years to nearer 4."

Order potentially worth 1m from Scanna expected shortly...

"We believe Image Scan presents an immediate and unique opportunity to invest in the rapidly expanding global security markets"


To take just one element of what ISH are involved in, the importance of the 3D TIP software is conveyed in this extract:

p.32-33
"Following the September 11th attack, Dillinghams testimony [22] was provided before the Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, US Senate to discuss security concerns with:
i) aviation-relatedcomputer systems;
ii) airport access controls and
iii) passenger andcarry-on luggage screening including how the USA differs from other countries.

This committee had earlier reported in the year 2000 that there were several weaknesses found with screeners in tests in the USA. In 1987, screeners missed 20% of potentially dangerous objects and recent tests approximating real threats showed that the performance degrades even further.

The main problem is because of less experienced staff, large turnover because of low wages, limited benefits, and repetitive nature of the work. In addition, the amount of work at airports makes it impossible to check every bag (over 2 million passengers and their bags must be checked per day in USA alone).

Air carriers can use their own employees to conduct screening activities but mostly they hire security companies to perform screening. In the USA, Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) monitors the performance of screeners by periodically testing them with FAA special agents posing as passengers.

Two important reasons explain why screeners fail: rapidscreener turnover and inadequate attention to human factors.
From May 1998 to April 1999, screener turnover averaged 126% in 19 major airports in the USA, 200% at five airports andone with a turnover of 416%.

FAA has been recommended to use threat-projection systems that place images of dangerous objects on the monitors of X-ray machines to keep scanners alert and monitor their performance and a certification program to make screening companies accountable for the training and performance of the screeners that they employ.

The threat-projection systems are useful as they monitor screener performance, and help train them to identify more diffcult objects for the future.
It is expected that FAA will deploy this technology in airports by 2003 and also more FAA security screeners will be used."


This represents my opinions only and is not advice to buy or otherwise. Do your own research!

Happy new year.

G.

Listen:Bill Mawer, CEO, Image Scan Holdings - Half yearly report

Click here