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Profits Puzzle Solved for Character Group? (CCT)     

andysmith - 22 Aug 2005 21:37

After a difficult trading year that has seen losses for CCT and the sp nose-dive to 25p at one point the solution to return to profits may come from the launch of electronic Sudoku games in time for Christmas. Character will launch two Carol Vorderman Sudoku products. For Sudoku fans on the move, there are two handy travel size products: a hand-held LCD game (19.99) with over 750 grids, and a touch screen version (29.99), with over 100,000 permutations of the game. A plug and play version, allowing addicts to play Sudoku on their home TV (29.99) will follow later this year. It won't take many sales to rack up good profits if these are anywhere near as addictive as the puzzle books have proved to be so far.
500,000 sold at guess 5 profit per item would rack up 2.5m, with less than 53m shares that is a healthy EPS of 4p on one item alone and my estimate is probably conservative? They also have licensing rights to Dr Who, Little Britain and Batman amongst others.
Also 70% of these shares are in the hands of Directors, Pension Trusts and Funds and as has been seen in recent weeks, moderate buying has pushed up the share price. It has all the hallmarks of a possible recovery stock as was IDS which I tipped last year at 81p and is now 382p. Not saying this will reach those heights but if Sudoku sells well this Christmas expect CCT to show a good start to their financial year. 2005 figures ending August 31st will not be good but we don't buy shares on the past, there is no gearing and 8m of shareholders funds available.
Take a look. The profits could be more pleasing than solving the puzzles.

Ted1 - 26 Jan 2006 17:31 - 71 of 263

Yep I agree some good discussions over on the other board.
Wicked how the mm's hold the price up all day stuff the man
on the street to sell then bang look at all the buying after the bell.
We got a mention in the FT today and the character team are at
the exel toy fair showing all the wonderfull new toys to the trade.
Should be a tick up tomorrow.

Peadar10 - 26 Jan 2006 19:03 - 72 of 263

Hello all, correct me if I am wrong here, digital division sold for 9m, digital division accounts for 50% plus of turnover. Current market value 30m. Only looking at this would indicate that the company sp is overvalued. Does anyone know how profitable the digital division was compared to the toy/gift division? I am still hopeful that we could be heading for 1 sp in the short term (depending on company announcements re profits at Christmas (not turnover) but am naturally wary. Always like the roller coaster with this one.
Any advice would be appreciated

driver - 27 Jan 2006 09:01 - 73 of 263

Peadar10
This post is courtesy of bubloo From another board this is his assessment (good post)

My Assessment
Sale going through in feb that is at the end of the first half. From their own rns sales up 60 % in comaprision to first half of 2004
So First half sales appro 43 x 60%= 25.8 + 43= 69 million for first half gpm at 23% ( I think it should be better )23% x69 = 15.87 million
Assume Selling and admin expenses are same as first half of 2004 i.e., 13mill Therefore pbt 2.87 million Tax at 30% .84 million Pat 2.03 eps 3.98 first half
stock at the end of the year aug 2005 was 9 million but that may now be say 6 million so say 3 million of digital to be paid for by flextronics
if you observe, the selling and admin expenses in the second half is always less than the first half i.e., selling 5.8 and admin 5.9. so in total second half expenses 11.7 but the expenses of wwl should be at least half of that, which would give expenses of about 6 million for toys and games
If the first half trend continues the toys bit should have sales of atleast 33million or more in second half let us take a conservative profit margin of 35% giving us op profit of 11.5 million minus expenses of 6to 7 million therefore pbt of 5 million in the second half
tax at 30 % 1.5 bmillion
gives a second half eps of 7 for a whole year eps of 11 hence the pe ratio is less than 6
cash at the end of the year
9.5 from sale of wwl +
3 miilion of stock +
cash at hand of about 3.75 million +
profit after tax of 5.5 million.

All these add up to 22 million
Market cap of 30 million

So essentially the company is valued at 8 million, with a potential of 60 million of sales yearly with a gpm of 35 to 40 % in toys and games equating to op profit of 21 to 24 million. Even if you consider that the selling and admin expenses for toys to be 60% of last year then expenses willbe around 14 million giving us a pbt of 7 to 10 million.

In summary the company is valued at 8 million and has a potential to make 8 million next year

I hope i am not going mad in my calculation here.

I think my estimates are in fact very conservative

I had discussed their statement below with the FD and he was of the opinion that it meant there will be a substantial boost to their bottom line hence I feel my estimates are conservative company statement during final results

Toys, Games and Gifts
During the financial year, we have accomplished our strategic plans of integrating firstly, Games and then Gifts within this Division, with the former being completed in the first half and the latter in the second half.

Although we have received a limited benefit from these changes in the latter part of the financial year being reported upon, we expect that there will be a more positive impact during the new financial year in terms of both efficiencies and costs.

Through this stronger and improved product offering, we anticipate that we will incur a lower percentage of credits and marketing spend in the current new financial year, with stock write-downs also expected to remain within the levels budgeted.

Peadar10 - 28 Jan 2006 00:25 - 74 of 263

Interesting post indeed driver, does anybody know when we are likely to get next trading statement/results?

driver - 30 Jan 2006 15:27 - 75 of 263

It looks like we got a good deal with pre tax profit of only $0.8m for WWL most of the 60% rise in turn over must be in the toy division, the selling today is the last of the shares being cleared out of ISAs and PEPs if punters hadnt transferred them by today they would have been sold.

doughboy66 - 30 Jan 2006 15:57 - 76 of 263

I must admit i`m a bit gutted with the drop today as i could of sold this stock a few times at a profit and got back in.
It really is something that i didn`t think would happen ,i thought that given the good trading update ,sale of WWL and dividend this was on a pretty constant move up.
I`m still confident this will be a lot higher once results are announced.

driver - 30 Jan 2006 16:03 - 77 of 263

66
You have to sit back and wait for this one its hard to trade because of the spread and it moves so rapidly, top up on the dips treble bagger IMO.

Ted1 - 30 Jan 2006 16:10 - 78 of 263

I have been fortunate with this one and have brought and sold twice on the spread of about 50-60p but I'm in now and intend to stay in. Not quite sure on a triple bagger but certainly double driver.
I agree that it would seem the small amount of profit in WWL does lead me to think that most of the 60% will be from the toys.
Can we now start moving northward towards results? Time will tell.......

Ted1 - 01 Feb 2006 16:32 - 79 of 263

Over 100k of T trade buys has pushed this over 12% up today.
We may challenge the magic 60p level for the 4th time which
should be broken up to 80p. IMO.........

Ted1 - 01 Feb 2006 16:46 - 80 of 263

More T trades and a tick up after the bell.
More of the same tomorrow?

doughboy66 - 01 Feb 2006 17:08 - 81 of 263

At last! people are starting to realize the true value of this company.

andysmith - 01 Feb 2006 20:20 - 82 of 263

When the market finally wakes up to this undervalued company it won't take long to hit 100p. Hopefully soon the 50p-60p tennis will be gone!!
PE ratio of 5-6 and good dividend, says it all. BUY.

driver - 01 Feb 2006 20:23 - 83 of 263

Ted1
I agree we need to get over this 60p then it will head north.

Hi andy, bye andy buy.

andysmith - 01 Feb 2006 20:45 - 84 of 263

Driver, would have added a few more at 50pish had I been around on Monday.
Will we break the 60p resistance this week?

Peadar10 - 02 Feb 2006 18:33 - 85 of 263

PE of 5-6? can anyone hazard a guess at the EPS with the next set of results?

andysmith - 02 Feb 2006 21:45 - 86 of 263

At finals, 2nd half of 2005 saw >3m profits with EPS 3.41p, I am expecting a better performance than that at 1st half 2006 due to strong Christmas sales and remember thats a half year performance. Full year could exceed 5m profit and with only 52m shares that gives EPS of 10p potentially which doesn't need Carol Vorderman to tell you PE 5-6 at current price. Add to that strong balance sheet and a dividend then fingers crossed we have share in the bargain category.

driver - 03 Feb 2006 09:23 - 87 of 263

This from another board (circular sent)

"The board has been delighted with the reaction to the new line up of products for the group's toys, games and gifts div at trade fair in Honk Kong earlier this month and at the London toy fair,which concluded on Sat 28 JAN.
The anticipated growth within the Toys, Games and Gifts div will require additional working capital resources to be drawn upon but, once the board has established the necessary level of capital to support the anticipated growth in the current calender year consideration will be given to the best means of utilising the excess capital generated from the sale of the Digital Business to best promote and enhance Shareholder value. This could potentially be effeted through a programme of buy backs of issued Ordinary Shares by the company in the market"

driver - 07 Feb 2006 16:12 - 88 of 263

This share is like a coiled spring.

Ted1 - 07 Feb 2006 16:20 - 89 of 263

Agree Driver
Just been saying over on the other bb
that that 135k T trade goes through and up goes the offer
As soon as mr T has finished the sp will be released.
IMHO of course
I would like to see this around a pound by the end of the month.

driver - 07 Feb 2006 16:23 - 90 of 263

Ted
It may be sooner than that.
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