anyone got any ideas about the block trades that went through today?

website: http://www.sterlingenergyplc.com/



weather: www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084938.shtml?50wind120

hlyeo98 is a dead loss. So what?

Further news today .....

Sun May 10, 2009 7:30am

* Iraqi Oil Ministry says Kurdish exports to begin
* Kurdish minister says received ministry permission

BAGHDAD/SULAIMANIYA, Iraq, May 10 (Reuters) - The Iraqi Oil Ministry will begin exporting oil from fields in semi-autonomous Kurdistan, an official said on Sunday, heralding a breakthrough in a bitter feud over control of Iraq's oil wealth.

Oil Ministry spokesman Asim Jihad told Reuters that once fields in the northern Kurdish region had been connected to the national export pipelines, "the Iraqi Oil Ministry will start exporting crude extracted from some oil fields in Kurdistan."

"These quantities will increase Iraqi export capacity, and all revenues will go to state coffers. The Ministry supports any steps to increase Iraqi output and export levels," he said, but declined to comment on when the exports would begin.

Jihad's comments came after the Kurdish natural resources minister said he had received a green light from Baghdad to begin the first official exports from Kurdish fields.

"Today I received an email message from the Iraqi Oil Ministry sending us their approval for the Kurdish government to export oil through the Iraqi pipelines to Ceyhan (in Turkey)," Ashti Hawrami told Reuters by telephone from outside Iraq.

On Friday the Kurdish government had announced that oil exports from its Tawke field would begin on June 1, saying they would start at an initial rate of 60,000 barrels per day (bpd).

It also said that 40,000 bpd of exports from another field, Taq Taq, would begin, travelling by truck and through an Iraq-Turkey export pipeline.

But there was no immediate confirmation from the Shi'ite-Arab led government in Baghdad, which has long called contracts Kurds have signed with foreign oil firms illegal and on Friday Jihad denied that permission had been granted for the Kurdish exports.

The oil feud is part of a larger dispute between minority Kurds and majority Arabs over resources, land and power that has held up national energy legislation and cast a shadow over a country struggling to emerge from six years of bloodshed.

Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani is facing increasing pressure to increase sluggish oil output, now around 2.3-2.4 million bpd, and turn around an industry in dire need of major investment after decades of sanctions, neglect and war.

On Sunday Jihad said there was a joint technical team, including Kurdish and Arab officials, that would conclude preparations for the launch of Kurdish oil exports.

Until now Baghdad's refusal to open the national pipeline to Kurdish oil exports has meant oil from Kurdistan, largely independent since 1991, has gone only to supply a small Kurdish market. Small amounts have been smuggled abroad.

Kurdish officials, who estimate reserves of at least 40-45 billion barrels in the area now recognised as Kurdistan, have meanwhile struck deals with firms including Toronto-listed Addax Petroleum (AXC.TO) and Norway's DNO International (DNO.OL), which is developing Tawke.

Rising with volume today only 43M with some large trades

My thinking -

The Preliminary Results were previously issued -2007 on 1/5/08,
2006 on 16/5/07,
2005 on 24/4/06,
2004 on 11/5/05.
This year ( 18/5/09 today ) and they are not yet issued ?
Are the directors waiting for something, or are they just getting slow ?
I think something is about to be announced.
Why suddenly the big trades this afternoon ?
Have they sold the USA interests or are Exxon / Mobile drilling in Madagascar ?
( Madagascar license is for 8 years from July 2004 so expires June 2012 - they better get a move on as five years now gone ! SEY have 30% in this large area )

I think we will hear something big in the next few days -
This one is going to fly at some stage

Inverted Head & Shoulders

Still no preliminary figures / report issued.
Now 22/5/09 = about 2/3 weeks later than usual. - its the latest for at least 5 years.

What are the directors waiting for ??
USA sale, Madagascar farm out, Reserves upgrade ?

What ever it is , it should be good. I,m impatiently waiting

Preliminary results will be out any day now - maybe tomorrow or next week
I understand.

It's the latest they have been issued for years -
They may make interesting reading !

A good surge today on the share price with volume reaching high numbers 42.8M

Oil Barrell -- June 03, 2009

Sterling Energys Preliminary Results for 2008
Emphasise The Fight For Financial Survival Continues

On the face of it, AIM Quoted Sterling Energy has an attractive profile for a small cap E & P company. It has some production in the US and some exciting upside potential with acreage in frontier areas like Kurdistan and Madagascar. Kurdistan is currently causing great interest because of exploration success for a number of Sterlings peer group.
But the company was unlucky in its timing. It bought assets in the US when commodity prices were high and then ran into the credit crunch. It has so far been unable to sell the US assets. This resulted in a funding or debt gap. Earlier in the year the lead bank in the syndicate lending to the company, Natixis, warned that Sterlings borrowing base, would be US$76 million leaving a funding or debt gap of US$28 million.

In April the company agreed a waiver on loan repayments. But one effect of the preliminary results, just released, has been to remind investors that that debt is still there and will have to be renegotiated.

Sterling has reported that the falls in prices of oil by 61 per cent and of 25 per cent in gas prices between the end of 2007 and 2008 resulted in lower fixed asset values and triggered non-cash pre-tax impairment charges of US$180.1 million. Accordingly an operating loss of US$175 million resulted (2007: profit US$1.8 million).

The company says that since the start of 2008, it has repaid US$41.4 million (27 per cent of its bank debt, but this still currently stands at US$112 million. Continued weakness in oil and gas prices in 2009 resulted in a marked reduction in the groups borrowing base. The waiver in April gave the company a breathing space but the company is still seeking a strategic solution to enable repayment of the debt gap, now US$25 million, before August in addition to further repayments forecast to then fall due.

Does this mean that Sterling must pull some kind of magic rabbit out the hat or win the lottery if it is not to go under? Not entirely. Chief Executive Graeme Thomson has told oilbarrel.com: I believe there is inherent value in the production and exploration prospects of our portfolio. He singled out the companys Kurdistan asset for particular merit. He has said to others: The banks would not have granted a waiver to a company they thought would fail.

The company points put there have been increased areas of activity in Kurdistan. Sterling has a 53.33 per cent interest (40 per cent fully diluted) in the Sangaw North PSC where a 325 km 2D seismic programme was completed on the block in late 2008. The company is fully carried for its share of well costs up to the point of testing, and the first well is due to spud in Q4 this year. This is exciting stuff, with Kurdistan proving to be a hot spot for explorers who like frontier regions. Heritage Oil, for example, which has enjoyed great drilling success in Uganda, has been testing the Miran West-1 well, in Kurdistan where initial results suggest a major oil strike.

Sterlings Sangaw North assets covers 492 sq km and lies in the prolific foreland of the Zagros fold thrust belt in a highly prospective area about 50 km south east of the giant Kirkuk gas/condensate field. There are oil seeps and a large surface anticline which will be tested with the well later this year.

The prospect could prove company making, but first the company must get a grip on its debt situation. Of course the climate is improving with the oil price again moving north. This augurs well for a sale of the US assets. The company has reported that drilling results have improved markedly in 2009. Sterling has confirmed a sale of the US assets remain central to Sterlings strategy. The shares, while no longer on their twelve month floor, are nevertheless languishing at under 2p.

The Sunday Times -- June 7, 2009

Higher oil price gives renewables a boost Danny Fortson

AFTER a year of swings, the oil price is moving toward a stable middle ground that will benefit not just the oil industry but the struggling renewables sector as well, experts say.

Brent crude closed at $67.82 a barrel last week - nearly double the $35 it plumbed in February but still less than half the record $146 a barrel it touched last summer.

Barclays Capital predicts it is now heading toward the $75 to $85 Goldilocks range - not so high that governments aggressively seek alternatives but enough for oil-producing nations to make a comfortable return on more exotic endeavours such as deep-sea drilling and tar sands.

After a year of extremes the market will welcome some stability. There are several reasons for the recovery. One is that fears about the recession deepening have subsided. Few are willing to call the bottom, but there is a growing consensus that the prospects for the worlds biggest customers, America and China, are not as dire as predicted.

Amrita Sen, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said: There are signs that the worst is probably behind us so the market is less focused on demand as a factor. Now it has begun looking at supply, and it doesnt look great on the nonOpec front.

Part of the reason the oil price reached $147 last year was the worry that oil producers would not be able to meet rising demand. But when the world economy slumped, so did the oil price. Opec, the cartel of oil-producing nations led by Saudi Arabia, reacted by slashing production by about 3.5m barrels a day, equal to about 4% of the total global consumption of 85m barrels.

Between them Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates control about 85% of the worlds spare capacity - fields that are lying dormant but can be turned on if need be. To a large degree, they control where the price goes from here.

Saudi Arabia has maintained throughout that $70-$80 a barrel is a sustainable level for them, said Sen.

At that level many of the oil prospects that were becoming unviable when the price sank now look better. Andy Cox, energy partner at KPMG, said: The oil companies are breathing a sigh of relief.

The rise is also helpful for the renewables sector, where clean-energy projects already dependent on subsidies looked even more questionable next to a low oil price.

Cox said: When the price collapsed real questions were asked about the economics for renewable versus conventional power. The rising carbon price gives a further boost.

HOIL interest last Friday could continue to be good for SEY.............

The Sunday Times -- June 7, 2009

Iraqi Kurdistan

A Turkish billionaire is to become one of the biggest shareholders in Heritage Oil under a deal that could transform the FTSE 250 group into the biggest player in Iraqi Kurdistan.

It would mark an extraordinary new chapter in the rise of the company started by Tony Buckingham, a controversial figure who has in the past provided mercenaries and arms to African states. He is understood to be in talks with Genel Enerji, a Turkish oil company, about an all-share merger.

Genel is owned by Cukurova Group, a conglomerate that spans media to cars to shipping and is controlled by Mehmet Emin Karamehmet, Turkeys richest man.

The deal, which could be announced by the middle of the week, would add to Buckinghams soaring fortunes. In the past year his 33% stake in Heritage has more than doubled in value to 500m on the back of finds in Uganda and Iraq. The tie-up would put the combined group at the forefront of one of the worlds last undeveloped oil regions.

Ashti Hawrami, the Kurdish oil minister, aims to increase production from the semi-autonomous region from 100,000 barrels a day by the end of the year to more than 1m barrels by 2012. The catalyst for talks between the companies came last week when a pipeline was opened that allows oil from Kurdistan to be exported from the Turkish port at Ceyhan for the first time. Baghdad had previously refused to issue the permits.

Last month Heritage and Genel revealed that the Miran West field they jointly own could hold up to 4.2 billion barrels. Heritage does not have the money to develop all of its fields. Genel is one of the most active explorers in Kurdistan.

Shares in Heritage were suspended last week after it revealed it was in talks. Details are expected to be worked out over the next few days, though there is no guarantee the deal will happen.

Heritage has tried to distance itself from its founders mercenary past he was a leading figure at Executive Outcomes and Sandline International and maintains that he has not been involved in the military or security work since 1998.

How the chart is looking at the moment

Intraday Chart

3 month candlestick with volume

3 month

moving well ahead this morning with 30.2M shares already traded
Has now done a short term BREAKOUT

4 month candlestick with volume

The trades keep going and volume reaching 47.5M now just over half day
Are we going to beat the 60M high last time back in April?

May break record volume. I still hold my purchase at 31p bought over a year ago.

Are my SEY figures right ??

a -Sterling Kurdistan acerage is about 25 kilometers south of Heritage
and closer to Kirkuk oil field. Sterling area is about 2 thirds the area of
Heritage. It is said Heritage could have up to 4.2 billion barrels in place.

b - Say SEY have 2 billion barrels in place ? 2 billion barrels with
I think 85% going to Kurdistan Regional Government and 53.3% of
the remainder presently for SEY. 53.3% of 300 million barrels is 160
million barrels net for SEY at present ? Say SEY can extract only 50%
which leaves 80 million barrels for SEY ? Assuming all goes well

c - Oil presently at say $70 a barrel - less pipeline fees etc say SEY worth
$50 per barrel to SEY or 35 per barrel ? 80 million barrels extractable
at 35 per barrel receivable =
2.8 billion for SEY. Present sale price of extractable oil ?

d - 2.8 billion value of extractable oil over say 28 years field life ? =
100 million per year for SEY ????


e - Put SEY on a PE ratio of about 5, and you are left with a rough Kurdistan
business value of 500 million.
( excluding other SEY assets and liabilities - USA assets should be worth
more than bank loans ? )

j - SEY present market capitalisation is about 55 million but could be
500 million ( as above ) ?. Figures ignore KRG and UK corp. tax.

Share price presently 2.50p ( cap at 55m ) but if all OK could be
22.50p ( 9 x 55m to bring to 500 m ) + other assets.

This assumes Iraq pipelines via Turkey etc can be used, and makes assumptions based on a lot of conservative guess work. Drilling costs I do not know about ????

Is this a once in a lifetime opportunity brought about by the Iraq situation ?

The idea of attempting any calculations is not to be precise but to get a general indication of the Kurdistan potential to SEY.

Is this a is a brave first attempt, to put a value on Kurdistan for SEY -
perhaps I am way out ??
If you can improve on my calculations let me know ???.

Another good move up with volume 22.5M and a higher BREAKOUT
do not forget the GAP this morning

rekirkham

Thanks for your calculations.
Most likely are not right as so many things change day after day ( price of oil up to $71.35 earlier on ),
but is an estimate that gives an idea of the BIG potential of SEY assets if played on the right way.

A very strong order book the reason of the rise
apread at the moment 2.88 / 2.95p

DEPTH ( total trades ) of 5M at bid for 2M at offer

Bid 2.88p 100K
2.86p 206K

offer 2.95p 100K

Master RSI

- Thanks for your comments - as you say, there is so much guess work, but it could be a guide of potential. When I read share articles in magazines about Kurdistan ( mainly "Shares" magazine ) they seem to lack any detailed technical analysis about acreages and % of the production sharing contracts, proximity to pielines etc, Usually give poor advice.

- Also I am not really into charts so much, except they do give me an indication of price ranges - i.e. usual top and bottom ranges. I use them mainly when I try to do my day trading with CFD,s. These days I try to get in and out of Man Group ( EMG ) as being a hedge fund it should follow the market index to some extent. Up at 270p now - maybe time to sell short, or is the maket going higher ??
Good luck