anyone got any ideas about the block trades that went through today?

website: http://www.sterlingenergyplc.com/



weather: www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084938.shtml?50wind120

The trades keep going and volume reaching 47.5M now just over half day
Are we going to beat the 60M high last time back in April?

May break record volume. I still hold my purchase at 31p bought over a year ago.

Are my SEY figures right ??

a -Sterling Kurdistan acerage is about 25 kilometers south of Heritage
and closer to Kirkuk oil field. Sterling area is about 2 thirds the area of
Heritage. It is said Heritage could have up to 4.2 billion barrels in place.

b - Say SEY have 2 billion barrels in place ? 2 billion barrels with
I think 85% going to Kurdistan Regional Government and 53.3% of
the remainder presently for SEY. 53.3% of 300 million barrels is 160
million barrels net for SEY at present ? Say SEY can extract only 50%
which leaves 80 million barrels for SEY ? Assuming all goes well

c - Oil presently at say $70 a barrel - less pipeline fees etc say SEY worth
$50 per barrel to SEY or 35 per barrel ? 80 million barrels extractable
at 35 per barrel receivable =
2.8 billion for SEY. Present sale price of extractable oil ?

d - 2.8 billion value of extractable oil over say 28 years field life ? =
100 million per year for SEY ????


e - Put SEY on a PE ratio of about 5, and you are left with a rough Kurdistan
business value of 500 million.
( excluding other SEY assets and liabilities - USA assets should be worth
more than bank loans ? )

j - SEY present market capitalisation is about 55 million but could be
500 million ( as above ) ?. Figures ignore KRG and UK corp. tax.

Share price presently 2.50p ( cap at 55m ) but if all OK could be
22.50p ( 9 x 55m to bring to 500 m ) + other assets.

This assumes Iraq pipelines via Turkey etc can be used, and makes assumptions based on a lot of conservative guess work. Drilling costs I do not know about ????

Is this a once in a lifetime opportunity brought about by the Iraq situation ?

The idea of attempting any calculations is not to be precise but to get a general indication of the Kurdistan potential to SEY.

Is this a is a brave first attempt, to put a value on Kurdistan for SEY -
perhaps I am way out ??
If you can improve on my calculations let me know ???.

Another good move up with volume 22.5M and a higher BREAKOUT
do not forget the GAP this morning

rekirkham

Thanks for your calculations.
Most likely are not right as so many things change day after day ( price of oil up to $71.35 earlier on ),
but is an estimate that gives an idea of the BIG potential of SEY assets if played on the right way.

A very strong order book the reason of the rise
apread at the moment 2.88 / 2.95p

DEPTH ( total trades ) of 5M at bid for 2M at offer

Bid 2.88p 100K
2.86p 206K

offer 2.95p 100K

Master RSI

- Thanks for your comments - as you say, there is so much guess work, but it could be a guide of potential. When I read share articles in magazines about Kurdistan ( mainly "Shares" magazine ) they seem to lack any detailed technical analysis about acreages and % of the production sharing contracts, proximity to pielines etc, Usually give poor advice.

- Also I am not really into charts so much, except they do give me an indication of price ranges - i.e. usual top and bottom ranges. I use them mainly when I try to do my day trading with CFD,s. These days I try to get in and out of Man Group ( EMG ) as being a hedge fund it should follow the market index to some extent. Up at 270p now - maybe time to sell short, or is the maket going higher ??
Good luck

rekirkham

re -EGM short

Looking at the Indicators, the shares it seem ready for some profit taking as all are now at overbought position, and the share price did not managed to break the last intraday high 275p.

on moving lower 250p could be the time of reversing the bet.

But markets are on the rise, so shorting is a dangerous punt at the moment.

good luck

I can see a short term Profit taking after the last few days of rising share price

All Indicators at oversold position and share price well above the Bollinger Band top line

YES profit taking was due and this morning started difting soon after opening, at the moment down to 2.48p from yesterday 2.90p

This one's not finished yet...2.65p and rising

i was contemplating whether or not SEY was an interesting punt purely in the light of excitrement aroused by the imminent licencing allotment due to come via baghdad parliament.

my conclusion was probably not, unless someone else can come up with a cogent argument - and if not SEY, then what alternative minnow or mid-cap company other than HOIL

Can't see any point taking a punt here till the licenses are agreed as not unlawful is sorted, and even then they will ultimately need to survive to reap the benefits of a positive drill should that happen.

Q4 Addax say from drilling then the drill may take up to 6 months, for comparison see HOIL and GKP time to drill the wells there.

in that case shall stick with HOIL and GKP!

Have a look at Vast Exploration web site - www.vastexploration.com

It shows locations of license areas and known oil fields in Kurdistan

I find it interesting regarding SEY, HOIL, GKP -
Addax already has found oil there, and I think some others besides HOIL -

Sorry I'm not sure you will find it now - it was on Press Release 20/5/2008.

Maybe somewhere else also on web site now ?

Have lost a lot since the 2.90p it reached over 2 month ago.
Soon time to have a look again for the turning point of the cycle
This days one has to take profits when threre is any, well at least that is what I have been doing on this stock,
I am looking for 3er time lucky. Not yet in

The 3er time lucky could be on as the VOLUME is Increasing and the TURNING must be just round the corner
as the shares are bouncing from support 1.80p

not that i really follow this company any more, but i thought it was under severe financial pressure.
if that is so, is it not just best avoided?

THE ASSETS ARE WELL COVERT BY THE THE FINANCIAL PRESSURE.

But I am only alerting the ones that they want a short term profit and follow the cycle of any share.

Naturally for you is not the right one long term.
But the economy is not right for any share that way, so maybe you should not be on the market at all.
But maybe what can one spect from a "cynic"