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THE TALK TO YOURSELF THREAD. (NOWT)     

goldfinger - 09 Jun 2005 12:25

Thought Id start this one going because its rather dead on this board at the moment and I suppose all my usual muckers are either at the Stella tennis event watching Dim Tim (lose again) or at Henly Regatta eating cucumber sandwiches (they wish,...NOT).

Anyway please feel free to just talk to yourself blast away and let it go on any company or subject you wish. Just wish Id thought of this one before.

cheers GF.

greekman - 06 Nov 2008 13:35 - 7203 of 81564

It is an idiotic decision.....Totally agree.
This huge interest rate cut is good for the very short term but is only building up problems for later. If this cut trickles down to the loan rates and makes it easier for businesses to borrow then yes, this is needed to kick start the economy, but I doubt it will do more than make it easier for the general public to borrow even more to add to an already unmanageable dept.
The question that should be asked re any interest rate drop, must be 'Will the banks be more responsible re lending' as it is already evident that they are reluctant to lend, full stop.
The answer must be Tax Cuts, as this will tempt high street spending, without the temptation to borrow to spend.
Obviously the augment against is that the government can't afford such cuts, but surely without these cuts the government money pot will suffer a worse fate due to higher unemployment resulting in more benefit payments plus less income/corporation tax received, in addition to lower VAT tax income.
Governments (especially those with this governments short term remaining) are only concerned with the short term. They don't care what the next generations future is. The only number they are interested in is NUMBER 1.

This_is_me - 06 Nov 2008 16:12 - 7204 of 81564

on interest rate cuts?
By Tony Bonsignore | 10:20:00 | 06 November 2008

It almost feels as if Peter Mandelson never went away.

Barely a month after his shock return to UK government after seven years in exile, the self-appointed Master of the Dark Arts of Spin delivered a classic googly to the banks on Tuesday when he openly warned that an angry British public was fully expecting to feel the benefit from todays interest rate cut.

I have to say when official rates are being cut it is not unreasonable for the customers to expect to see some benefits, Mandelson told Radio 4s Today programme. We are taking very strong action if it appears the banks are standing in the way of what the government is doing then I think many banking customers are going to be asking difficult questions of the banks.

Everyone would be surprised and disappointed if the banks in time were not to respond, Mandelson concluded in a bravura performance that no doubt made Tony Blair swell with pride.

The problem, of course, is that Mandelson is dealing in carefully calculated half-truths and misrepresentations, and that matters are far more complex than he or Gordon Brown are prepared to acknowledge.

Indeed if Mandelson made any error, it was giving the banks two full days to respond to his accusations, an opportunity which they have not been slow to grasp.

The matter boils to down to a few simple questions. Firstly, do the banks have the ability to pass on cuts in the official interest rate to borrowers? Second, are they doing so if they can? And, finally, if not, then why?

Mandelsons reply implies that the answer to the first question is yes, and that to the second, for the most part, is no.



By implication Mandelson is doing Browns dirty work by blatantly inferring that the banks are choosing to hoard cash and profiteer rather than make life easier for their borrowers. The truth is much more difficult.

For one, the link between official interest rates and bank lending is not nearly as solid as once it was, particularly since the banks changed their business models to rely more and more on wholesale funding. That risky and ultimately disastrous strategy, it should be remembered, is one that was effectively rubber-stamped by the government and regulators through their light-touch regulatory regime.

As the Council of Mortgage Lenders not unreasonably pointed out yesterday, interbank lending rates (as measured by the benchmark three month Libor) still remain some 1.2% higher than the official bank rate, which reduces the scope for aggressive interest rate cutting. There is no cheap money for the banks yet, so how can there be cheap money for borrowers?

Worse still, the Libor rate has already to a large extent factored in forthcoming rate cuts, which means it is unlikely to fall in line with cuts in the official Bank of England rate.

And not only have wholesale funding costs gone up, but so has the cost of retail-deposit taking, which has suddenly (and thankfully) become a key part of the UK banking model once again. Hence the fact that many savings accounts are still paying relatively reasonable rates of interest.

More broadly, however, banks are being more conservative in their lending strategies, which is not unreasonable given the grim economic outlook. In that context it would be imprudent of them to slash lending rates and criteria aggressively, however much borrowers and the government might like it.

Of course, the bigger question is why banks were allowed to lend so indiscriminately for so long before it all dried up so devastatingly seemingly overnight. Again that suggests fundamental failures of governance and regulation stretching back over a long period.

And finally, and crucially, to allow banks to lower rates and start lending aggressively again is almost directly at odds with the governments stated aim of shoring up the banks capital positions, which as we now know had reached perilously thin levels by September. Indeed as bank results showed earlier in the week, there is still a long way to go before the sector can be considered sufficiently solvent and robust.

But it is to say that matters are a lot more complex than Mandelson suggests and that many of dilemmas the banks now face are a result of the governments own regulatory failings.

Winding up the public to expect cuts in lending rates and deflecting blame for the financial crisis comes across as cheap political points scoring and surely helps no one in the long run.

Fred1new - 06 Nov 2008 16:42 - 7205 of 81564

Perhaps, they are suggesting lending at lower rates for lower risk adventures, lower rates to smaller companies with realistic possibilities and denying 125% mortgages in future. Many of the 75-100% mortgages are now in negative equity. I am sure Brown and co. are fully aware of the complexities. Whether the size of the complexities are known is a different matter.

greekman - 06 Nov 2008 16:49 - 7206 of 81564

Re the above article.
The only bit I disagree with is.....The problem, of course, is that matters are far more complex than he (Mandelson) or Gordon Brown are prepared to acknowledge.

My feeling is that it is not the complexity of the matter they have trouble acknowledging its the actual understanding of it.
Looking at the closing market price the city doesn't think its that good a move either.
If this don't work it will be difficult to take the second option of tax cuts to move or save the economy without unwinding this last bank rate.


Kayak - 06 Nov 2008 16:56 - 7207 of 81564

I'm not sure that it's either the complexity or the understanding that are the problem. It's probably more simply that it would be political suicide to give the right answer "tough, the economy needs to contract because it has expanded on credit beyond the wildest possibility of the people to afford it, and nothing we can do will change that."

greekman - 06 Nov 2008 17:04 - 7208 of 81564

Mandelon has just announced that he EXPECTS banks to pass on the rate reduction.

Benjamin Franklin once said.
"Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed."

So I for one wont be disappointed.

Fred1new - 06 Nov 2008 17:13 - 7209 of 81564

Kayak, I tend to agree to the sentiment in your last posting. However, I also think the "government" is trying to reduce the size of the possible unemployment. To me, it would seem better to try stimulating the economy and rather than having mass unemployment with ex-workers claiming dole and social security etc. I don't believe in long term subsidies in general, but in the short term it may be more sensible and will allow some smaller companies to survive. (Cheaper borrowing can be seen as subsidising.)

Many of the smaller companies without the reduction of the cost of borrowing may go bust even though they could be successful long term.

I still feel the people responsible for the situation we are in is primarily due to the "Over BORROWED", the stupid greedy bankers (including the market players) who lent without undestanding or not knowing the risks. (Didn't want to know, as they hoped they would move on before the true costs were known.) The government has its responsibilities, but can you imagine the baying of the press and the city if they had brought in the necessary regulations, which they are now demanding.

Fred1new - 06 Nov 2008 17:33 - 7210 of 81564

Greekman, I am already a grumpy B. as I am 10years older than you. So youngster mind your Ps & Qs.

Actually, I retired about 13years ago and wandered around France, a little bit of Italy, Spain and Portugal in a large motor home for 4-5 years. Coming home in July and going back to the continent. I had had few holidays in thirty previous 30 years, other than my job. All I can say is the people I seemed to meet during my wanderings were all very pleasant and helpful, even the police. I thought all the countries had they virtues, but for me France away from the major cities is a beautiful relaxed civilised country. The climate of the south almost perfect. their food and wine perfect.

I think Britain has its advantages but France since my youth and the songs of Edith Piath stir a longing almost as strong and hiraeth.

greekman - 07 Nov 2008 08:44 - 7211 of 81564

Fred,

Sorry Sir,
As you are my elder, I humbly apologize for none doffing of cap (the peaked Yorkshire kind) prior to posting. No doubt when you go to the pub you reminisce about the Snug, Parlour and Smoke room, and those bar meals that consisted of soggy crisps and rock hard cheese filed bread cobs (I know I do).
I also have a motor home and like you find that most ordinary people in most countries are fine. Like most countries including the UK ,it's corrupt politicians and the fanatics that cause the problems. Ordinary people usually just want to get on with life.
With attempt to have a moan free day, but as the wife and I are going shopping for food (supermarket) and shoes with about 10 charity shops along the route I doubt I will succeed in the attempt.
What is it about females and charity shops. They say buying stuff from these shops saves money. Fine but most of the stuff they just don't need and never wear.
Yes I know already failed.

Fred1new - 07 Nov 2008 10:38 - 7212 of 81564

I buy nearly all my books from Charity Shops. "Especially unopened Cookery Books"!

My wife has said she is going to stop my pocket money!

greekman - 10 Nov 2008 11:42 - 7213 of 81564

On Thurs I posted....With attempt to have a moan free day.
Well it did not extend into Saturday.

Anyone else found this re Marks and Spencers. Subject...their Two dine for 10 weekend offer.

My wife and myself have been fairly regular customers of their store situated in Beverley, East Yorks since it opened a couple of years ago.
When we first saw the advert we decided to give it a try and instead of going in on a weekday we changed to a Saturday shop to take advantage of the offer. On the first promotion (Two dine for 10) there was no problem, but on our last 3 visits around 1100 hrs we have found that each time the deal has sold out, IE usually no main courses. On mentioning this to the manageress, she informed me that the promotion aways mentioned the condition, 'Whilst stocks last', something that I obviously knew. I pointed out that if the offer is sold out by 1100 hrs 3 consecutive promotional weekends then to advertise it as a week-end offer is misleading to say the least and in my opinion was false advertising.
I mentioned that it appeared to be a con just to ' get you in store'.
She replied that all promotions had that intent, something again obvious.
She suggested we came in on the Friday as they now always sold out by very early Saturday.
Several other customers were making their feelings known.
I have complained via e-mail (OK moaned) to M&S re this con.
No wonder they are fast loosing custom, my wife and self included.

I know it's a small niggle but as you no doubt know, I don't keep quiet if things need saying.
OK rant off chest.

Fred, (Sir, touching forelock and standing to attention),

How the hell did you get your wife to give you pocket money in the first place?
I have to earn mine by doing chores. You know, washing up, ironing, cleaning, having sex.
OK made the first 3 up.

tabasco - 10 Nov 2008 12:00 - 7214 of 81564

Greekmanmy wife is a manager at a M&S storejust to answer you moan briefly and with a certain amount of biasthat deal is sold out because it is a genuinely brilliant offerdo the math and work out what you can get for your moneythe wine alone is a good proportionI know that they fill the store up heaving with the dine itemsbut the popularity is phenomenalI am being honest with you nowM&S are one of the last few stores you can trust 100%Put your complaint in writing to Head Office and you will be explained in a manner you can trust!

niceonecyril - 10 Nov 2008 12:23 - 7215 of 81564

Just the type of news to cheer one up?

China Announces 4 Trillion Yuan Economic Stimulus (Update2)

By Li Yanping and Chia-Peck Wong

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China announced a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus plan to spur expansion in the world's fourth-largest economy, helping sustain global growth as the U.S., Europe and Japan teeter on the brink of recession.

The funds, equivalent to almost a fifth of China's $3.3 trillion gross domestic product last year, will be used by the end of 2010, the Beijing-based State Council said today on its Web site. China will adopt a ``pro-active fiscal policy'' and pursue a ``moderately loose'' monetary policy, it said.

``We have long-awaited this stimulus plan,'' said Ken Peng, an economist at Citigroup Inc. in Shanghai. ``The measures may stimulate domestic demand, but they won't prevent China's economy from slowing further as the global economy is certainly in a recession.''

China is taking steps to bolster its economy, the biggest contributor to global expansion, less than a week before Premier Wen Jiabao goes to Washington for talks with world leaders on ways to address the economic slump. People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday boosting spending at home is the best way China can help.

China accounted for 27 percent of global economic growth last year, more than any other nation, the International Monetary Fund said in a report in April this year. Taiwan, which counts China as its largest trading partner, today cut interest rates for the fourth time in two months after exports dropped in October by the most in three years.

``Over the past two months, the global financial crisis has been intensifying daily,'' the State Council said in today's statement. ``In expanding investment, we must be fast and heavy- handed.''

Housing, Infrastructure

The package announced today, of which 100 billion yuan is earmarked for this quarter, will go toward low-rent housing, infrastructure in rural areas, as well as roads, railways and airports, the State Council said.

The government will also allow tax deductions for purchases of fixed assets such as machinery to stimulate investment, a move that will reduce companies' costs by an estimated 120 billion yuan.

In addition, grain purchase prices and subsidies for farmers will be raised, as will allowances for low-income urban households. The government also scrapped loan quotas to help boost lending to small businesses.

The stimulus plan may boost China's economic growth by 2 percentage points next year, said Xing Ziqiang, an economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing. UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG before today's announcement forecast expansion of no more than 7.5 percent for next year, which would be the slowest in nearly two decades.

Manufacturing, Property Slump

Wen is trying to stop China's economic slowdown from deepening as exports wane, manufacturing contracts and a property slump undermines domestic demand. The central bank has already cut interest rates three times in two months, reducing the one-year lending rate to 6.66 percent.

Manufacturing contracted by the most since at least 2004 in October and export orders dropped to their lowest, according to CLSA Asia Pacific Markets. Home sales have plunged in major cities including Beijing and the stockpile of unsold new vehicles was at a four-year high in September.

``The golden years have shuddered to a dramatic halt,'' said Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai.

To contact the reporters on this story: Li Yanping in Beijing at yli16@bloomberg.netChia-Peck Wong in Hong Kong at cpwong@bloomberg.net

cyril

greekman - 10 Nov 2008 13:15 - 7216 of 81564

Tabasco,

Couldn't agree more that its a genuinely brilliant offer, but my moan was that surely if they had run out of the deal items by 1100 hrs 3 times in a row then they should supply more, as many were in the store at the same time as we were, no doubt enticed by the so called week-end offer.
As to trusting M&S, we have always found them fully trustworthy and open, that is why we were surprised at the lack of clarity in this instance. I still say that the advert misleads, as they now know the promotion will run out by 1100 hrs, every Saturday.
I have already received an auto reply stating a full reply will be sent within 48 hours. I am confident due to prior dealing, I will receive such a reply.
As you no doubt appreciate, a complaint made in the correct manner is what according to most businesses helps them to keep/increase business

As a Footnote... I did complain in a polite way to the manageress, who as expected from M&S staff was equally polite in reply. I made it clear that it was not a moan against any staff as I appreciate they can only do so much.
She acknowledged that several customers had also felt disappointed.

Regards Greek.

This_is_me - 11 Nov 2008 08:32 - 7217 of 81564

I think M&S is way overpriced for what you get, whether food or clothes and I would not eat any of the food that they have been advertising recently even if they gave it to me for freee eg. for goodness sake why ruin good steak by cutting it up and mixing it with cheese and booze and then adding pastry. You slice steak into nice thick slices and fry or grill it, not mess it up. In many cases the stuff out of LidL is better quality, let alone what you can get anywhere else.

greekman - 11 Nov 2008 09:14 - 7218 of 81564

This is me,

Our main shop is NETO (we don't have a local LidL) and has been for several years due to it's overall value. We shop in M&S for treats always looking for offers. Yes they are pricey but the quality is very good indeed.
As to beef steak, it is my favorite meat. I eat it in dozens of different ways, my favorite being with a thin spread of honey and garlic sauce. As a lover of cheese, especially stilton or any similar (we collectively call it stinky cheeses) I love the M&S dish from the advert but as I love cooking (used to be a Baker, specializing in pastry, for what was at the time the best award winning bakery in the UK) I cook almost the identical dish and it's delicious.

tabasco - 11 Nov 2008 10:53 - 7219 of 81564

This_is_me... I would suggest you check where the source of the said supermarket get their meat.and other products.do you think the product tins are accurategood luck my friend!.M&S can practically tell you the name of the cow.
Check out and price compare M&S bag of chicken breastyou will be surprised!

greekman - 11 Nov 2008 11:56 - 7220 of 81564

Meat is one of the products I very rarely buy from discount stores due to the provenance and taste. Chicken especially as most cuts are from young immature birds, that have no taste. Free range mature birds are often twice the price or more than the battery type, but apart from the moral issues, they have taste.
On a percentage, I would say that 80% of our shopping is from discount stores (NETTO) with the remaining 20% from higher priced stores/shops usually because the discount stores either don't stock the specific products or the quality of their own brands are too poor to make it worthwhile purchasing.


maddoctor - 11 Nov 2008 12:37 - 7221 of 81564

I wish somebody would vote off that Louis Walsh - well past any entertainment value

greekman - 11 Nov 2008 13:00 - 7222 of 81564

Full agree, although as he has no connection with Netto or M&S, why you have posted on the M&S/Netto thread I have no idea. Mind you Netto are recruiting at the moment so there could be a connection although with his personality they probably would not employ him to sweep up. I know I wouldn't.
But seriously if the X-Factor weeded out the no hoper's prior to broadcast the programme would be much better. I am obviously aware that the no hoper's are there for the audience that enjoy their pitiful attempts but it does nothing for me.
Still each to their own as they say.
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