I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Note from RBC today:
"Man Group (EMG LN): 100p price target; Sector Perform rating.

Yesterday Man Group’s share price rose 6.4% to 93.7p. The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 each rose 0.6% yesterday. We believe the shares are reacting positively to AHL performance.
Last night Man Group reported its weekly AHL net asset value. AHL increased by 2.1% week-on-week, against the MSCI World which declined by 0.1% week-on week. AHL outperformed the MSCI World by 226 basis points in the most recent week and reached its highest level since 3 October 2011. Year-to-date in 2013 (through 8 April), AHL is up 5.8% against the MSCI World being up 6.6%. AHL is now 7% from high watermark. To the end of March 2013, AHL increased 3.9% over the past year, and increased 2.3% over the past three years. While this longer-term performance is still lacklustre, the recent trend is encouraging.

We further believe that Man Group’s shares could be benefitting in advance of a large dividend payment. Man Group trades ex-dividend 8.26p (net) on 24 April. This represents an 8.8% yield. We still believe, however, as our most recent report indicates (please see attached), that net outflows accelerated further in Q1/2013. Man Group will issue its Q1 IMS on 3 May."

No WAY.

CC
you correctly are aware of gaps in price movement.the chart in
post 723 shows a gap lower than 84.or maybe more than one?
please do be cautious and dyor on gap analysis. correct data is most important and worth paying for.
regards to you
jkd

jkd - Thanks for your advice, noted, regards to you also.

Man Group plc announces certain changes with respect to its regulatory capital position

11 April 2013

Man Group has confirmed with the Financial Conduct Authority ("FCA") the change of its regulatory status from being a Full Scope Group to a Limited Licence Group.

As mentioned at our 2012 results presentation, the Group held a Capital Planning Buffer of approximately $300 million which it is no longer required to hold by the FCA.

Furthermore, in light of the Group's change in status to a Limited Licence Group it has submitted a revised Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process ("ICAAP") document to the FCA. The ICAAP is part of the mechanism through which regulated firms are set capital requirements by the FCA. Consistent with the Group's revised status, Man Group's capital requirement is today approximately $250 million lower. This reduction has been possible primarily in light of the less balance sheet intensive nature of the company's activities relative to earlier years, for example with respect to fund seeding activities and the scale of the guaranteed products business. However, the ICAAP submission remains subject to review by the FCA, which is expected in the third quarter of 2013 and could result in higher or lower capital requirements in the future.

As disclosed in the 2012 year end results, Man Group's pro forma surplus capital in excess of the Capital Planning Buffer as at 1st January 2014 is $370 million, after taking into account the payment of the full year dividend in respect of 2012, which remains subject to shareholder approval, and the expected impact of the Capital Requirements Directive IV. As described above, this figure is increased by $300 million due to the removal of the Capital Planning Buffer, and a further $250 million given reduced capital requirements as a Limited Licence Group. Pro forma for these changes therefore, Man Group would have surplus capital of up to approximately $920 million as at 1st January 2014, an increase of up to $550 million.

The Board of Man Group will continue to assess the appropriate level of capital required to operate the business from time to time and the potential uses of any surplus capital, and will provide further detail in due course in connection with future results announcements.

Ex-divi 24th Apr 2013. (12.5¢)
Looks like your 'No WAY' has turned into 'Yes WAY' gf. Currently 107p, though suspect it may reverse after the 24th.

RBC Capital Markets Sector Performer 106.00 106.20 100.00 120.00 Reiterates

Canaccord Genuity Buy 106.05 106.50 75.00 120.00 Upgrades

am now in. [through regular investment ISA so did not get in at 91p when first interested]
GLA
Alex

Glad I held on. Initial drop was about 7%, but seems to have recovered some of that already.

RBC comment today:
"Man Group (EMG LN): Sector Perform, 120p price target. Man closed yesterday at 108p. We believe there should be several factors impacting Man Group’s share price today: Man Group trades ex-dividend 8.26p (net) today, which represents a final yield of 7.6%.
Also, yesterday after the market close Man Group reported its weekly AHL net asset value. AHL increased by 1.0% week-on-week, against the MSCI World which declined by 0.3% week-on-week. AHL outperformed the MSCI World by 127 basis points in the most recent week. This is the third consecutive week in which AHL has outperformed the MSCI World Index (and the third consecutive week of positive performance).
Year-to-date 2013, AHL is now outperforming the MSCI World. AHL is up 7.7% against the MSCI World being up 6.6%. We believe that AHL is now only 5% from high watermark.
Man Group will issue its Q1 IMS on 3 May. Our most recent note, in which we detail our thoughts for the statement, is attached. Conclusion: Three weeks does not make a trend, but the signs are encouraging and the distance from high watermark continues to close, which is helpful to financial performance. As we state in the attached note, challenges for Man Group exist, and include:
We do not expect a short-term improvement in performance to lead to meaningful net inflows; and Man continues to contend with net outflows, which we believe accelerated in Q1/13 to $3.8B from $2.7B in Q4/12. We do not expect net inflows to return at Man until Q2/14.
However, while we maintain our neutral stance on Man, we also believe that the company’s challenges are largely known by the market. Therefore, we continue to believe that in the near term the positives should continue to outweigh the challenges and that the upside should prevail."

StockMarketWire.com
Hedge fund manager Man Group said funds under management (FUM) at end-March were $54.8bn (end-December: $57bn). Net outflows were $3.7bn.

Positive investment movement of $2.8 billion in the quarter:

o AHL Diversified programme up 4.2% in the quarter. As of 29 April 2013, AHL Diversified programme is up 10.4% for the year to date and AHL open ended FUM of $9.5 billion is approximately 4.5% away from high water mark on a weighted average basis with over 70% at or within 5% of high water mark

o The majority of GLG alternative strategies had positive performance in the quarter and over 71% of GLG performance fee eligible FUM was at high water mark and 20% was within 5% of high water mark at the end of March

o GLG long only strategies contributed positive investment movement of $1.6 billion in the quarter with the strongest performance coming from the Japan Core Alpha fund which was up 24.0%

o Positive performance at FRM added $0.4 billion to FUM in the quarter

· Net outflows in the quarter of $3.7 billion, comprising sales of $2.5 billion and redemptions of $6.2 billion

· FX movements of negative $1.6 billion in the quarter, driven by the strengthening of the US dollar against the Yen, Euro and Sterling

· Other movements of $0.3 billion driven by guaranteed product regears of $0.5 billion partially offset by institutional product maturities and other movements of $0.2 billion

· Previously announced cost saving programmes remain on track

Manny Roman, CEO, said: 'The world economy still faces significant challenges but with reduced correlation between major asset classes and the reassertion of trends, we have seen a somewhat more stable market environment. Against this background, we saw solid performance across our three investment engines.

'However, this was a disappointing quarter from a flows perspective with sales at a similar level to the previous quarter and increased redemptions, chiefly due to the loss of three sizeable low margin mandates.

'Investment performance is the lifeblood of our business and in time we expect good performance to translate into flows. However, we remain cautious in our outlook as we will need a more sustained period of performance, particularly from AHL, before we see an improvement in net flows. We continue to make good progress against our key business priorities and the recently announced improvement in our capital position, together with our announcement today of the intended buyback of our debt securities, has delivered value for shareholders.'

Oriel Securities Buy 103.05 106.30 115.00 115.00 Retains

Just out of auction.

Credit Suisse Neutral 112.05 106.30 115.00 125.00 Retains

Numis Sell 115.35 106.30 - 75.00 Reiterates

Just sold all mine for about 20% gain (including divi) in two months. Not my type of stock but will probably go on a massive bull run now that I'm ouy.

Ditto Dil, limited out at target 115. Plenty of scope to get back in if does go back on a bull run.

Time to short :-))

Note from Aviate Global today:
"We knew AHL performance (key driver) was good in Q1 (and even better since), the investment gains were $2.8bn in Q1. Outflows are still happening, there is a 6 month lag between inflows and good performance. Net outflows were big -$3.7bn (street going for something like $3bn), although only $600mn came from AHL open-ended (rest from guaranteed product and lower margin AUM). This is still a problem but given the leading indicators are good (performance) and the effects of the past lagging (outflows), performance matters more for the story. The positive surprise is as of 29th April, 70% of AHL’s open-ended funds are now at or within 5% of high water marks (was 18% on 25 Feb), AHL is +8% since end of Q1 (worth $800mn on assets). With the excess capital, they are buying back expensive debt (instead of a special dividend), calling all tier 1, tier 2, hybrid and senior debt. Management is guiding that interest expense will be cut by $78mn (pre-tax) in 2014 (cons net income in 2014 is $208mn although not all this interest cost goes through P&L, but all effects EPS). Excess capital expected to be $450mn post this at year end, which may be used for buyback/dividend or M&A. We actually prefer this route, special dividend are one-offs while improving profitability lays the ground for a higher sustainable dividend, although a special dividend may still happen. All cost saving programmes on are track (expected).
The message from management is consistent, it is performance that counts, get that right and all else will flow. On that basis, Man Group is turning around and the street still has a bearish and backward looking view. We knew AHL was strong coming into results, so Q1 was really an update on AUM outflows (still high) and what management is doing with the excess capital. On outflows, they are still high, but performance is the leading indicator and this is good. There is scope for flows to come from Japan (15% current AUM) given the change that’s happened there, they have good distribution. Time will tell. LO will gain first, followed by alt assets. On excess capital, thought long and hard about it, decided to buy back all the debt, $75mn saving ($50mn interest cost since not all goes through P&L – we can explain this if you want to know why). The repurchase of debt cleans up an already robust balance sheet and will have a significant effect on 2014 net income and EPS, but more muted in 2013 due to redemption fees due and interest payable up to the redemption dates (between May and August this year). There is still excess capital, yet to decide what to do with it.
Conclusion: AHL the major driver, performing well. Flows will follow with a lag. The 2013 EPS numbers might be messy, but there’s a big saving for 2014 (upgrades), so this is a cleaner story now on dividend flow we think. The street is slow to react and AHL performance and still potential for higher inflows means the leverage to the upside is still massive."

sp slipping towards 100p?

Apparently a bit of an uncomplimentary broker note came out yesterday (?). Will post when I find it.