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greekman, the trouble is its not a big find.

Anyone getting involved will get blacklisted by nearly all South American countries.

So, the bigger the find the more inclined they will be.

I think the big boys will wait and see what BOR and FOGL discover this year and then make a decision to get involved or not.

so why on earth are you buying (one assumes) FOGL or BOR?

Cynic,

Good point.

Proseleness,

We will have to agree to differ!

cynic, as they have the potential for multi-billion barrels recoverable finds.

If there is a few billion barrels on offer the majors will not care about South America not being happy.

Size means everything.

what a load of codswallop! ..... MR P - your 2 faves haven't even found a duster yet

We will see cynic, lets see how things are with the BOR and FOGL and RKH share prices next month, in three months and in six months time.

I will compare them and quote back to you - we will then see who had the right idea.

Its a little out of date with the information as its old, but here is some detail on the production at the Marlim field offshore Brazil in the Campos Basin, which has been ongoing for years now.

The Campos Basin is the analogue for Loligo/Nimrod/Vinson etc.. - with the targets at Loligo/Nimrod/Vinson all expected to have oil in the 18API to 25API range (production at the offshore Marlim field is 17API to 22API)

http://www.offshore-technology.com/projects/marlimpetro/

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500K buy there, looks like the overhang is getting cleared out, chunk by chunk.

South American countries firmly support Argentina............ my donkey they do ;)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2082623/English-HMS-Protector-stirs-ill-feeling-Uruguay-allowed-dock-en-route-Falklands.html?ito=feeds-newsx

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Who gives a damn about what happens there ?.....it's what happens around the falklands......and the drilling...all the sabre rattling in South America is not even worth a mention....

Sabre rattling or not, it would be fooling to ignore anything connected with the Falklands, no matter how tenuous.
I am sure that if the UK government acted as if nothing could possibly happen, they would quite rightly face criticism.
So it must be worth a mention, as if nothing else it will have an impact on what price Rockhopper can put on their oil in the ground price.
You can guarantee that if this threat or as you say sabre rattling (and I agree thats what it is) was resolved, Rockhoppers sp would improve.
So it matters not what we think, its what others think that also counts.

Everything has some token of credibility even if its only credence is because someone believes it.

The south american falkland talk will carry on for years.....RKH's sp is rising and as we go on the oil in the ground is getting closer and closer to being pumped out and towards the british forecourts...might take four years but no more than that......by then if Rockhopper has not been taken over ; the sp will be worth eight to ten pounds in my estimation....now that's better than bonds !...

RF,

Thats were we both agree.

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/294034/Falklands-boom-in-the-pipeline

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From III

Re: Going Second, Seismics - BHP I spoke to FOGL a while back (didn’t catch the person’s name but he appeared well informed and very confident). I queried why BHPB no longer retained the option to farm back in on a discovery and whether FOGL still had access to the escrow cash. He confirmed that they still had access to the escrow cash to drill Loligo.

He explained that FIG effectively vetoed the decision to allow BHPB to retain back-in option (not hard to work out why given BHPB’s poor record in FI). He stressed this was good news for FOGL’s farm in discussions with other potential partners as the BHPB back-in option had clearly presented a complication.

Now owning a 100% FOGL was in a much stronger position to negotiate a new farm-out deal. I asked why this situation had not been made clearer in the RNS dated 21/11/2011 (link below) as it was clearly excellent news – we get to keep BHPB’s cash and create a clean slate to negotiate a new farm-in.

He said neither FIG nor FOGL wanted to give the impression that they were (I quote) “rubbing BHPB’s nose in it”.http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201111210700134113SI would also add that despite never being keen on the politics (with Argentina sabre-rattling) BHPB clung on to their interest in Loligo until the very last and even then did not relinquish it voluntarily.

Simple question – why?

Please note no new information was released to me during this discussion, it was simply clarification of the RNS above which I queried.

Leiv Eriksson.

2123Nm, 203 DEGREES
13d 14h 38mins (at 6.5knots)
ETA: 2012-01-21 08:28 (UTC)
Port Stanley

It looks like FOGL is being heavily short sold at the moment, as people gamble that there will be no farm out and FOGL will need to raise some extra funds to drill 2 deep wells, and will do so before BOR finish their first drill.

That means if a farm out is announced expect a very strong rally upwards and the shorts close their positions rapidly.

Either the shorts are right and will get their stock back in a placing, or there will be a helluva shorts closing rally before too long.

perhaps you're grasping at straws ..... a damn-fool buy imo

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i am not a holder of fogl in any respect and have no wish to be
i only hold rkh in this region, and am currently showing a very nice profit

logic is as follows, and as posted a couple of weeks back ....

if fogl fluke a find - chances are usually something like 5:1, but in unknown territory, more realistic to say 8 or 10 or even 12:1 - then rkh will also benefit
there will also be plenty of opportunity to jump on board after the event.

if fogl get a duster or a non-commercial find - the most likely outcome - then fogl will be badly hit, but rkh will only a dip a bit

i don't play roulette, even when the odds are a bit better than at that that mug's game