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- 24 Sep 2009 13:30
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From Times Online September 24, 2009
Sterling hits low as King backs weak pound
Bank of England Governor says currency fall would be 'helpful' in boosting exports and rebalancing UK
Sterling slumped to its lowest level in more than five months this morning after Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, appeared to back a weak UK currency.
Speaking to The Journal, a newspaper covering the North East of England, Mr King said that the significant decline in the value of sterling in recent months will be helpful to rebalance Britains economy by helping to boost exports.
The pound dropped by 0.8 per cent against the dollar to $1.6202 as the market interpreted his comments to mean that Mr King is comfortable with the falling pound, which has declined by almost a quarter against other major currencies in the past two years. The pound also fell 1 per cent against the euro to 91.04p.
He said: The fall in the exchange rate that we have seen will be helpful to that process but theres no doubt that what we need to see now is a shift of resources into net exports whether directly or in producing things that compete with imports.
Mr King continued, by expressing the note of cautious optimism that has characterised his recent statements relating to Britains fragile economic recovery. He said: Output has stabliised. There are some signs that growth may be beginning to pick up. But we shouldnt get too carried away by this. This is clearly very small growth after a very large fall and unemployment has risen so its a difficult challenge ahead."
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Global Insight, said: I interpret Mervyn Kings comments as saying that a lower pound would be desirable and I agree with him.
Despite its slump, I am still surprised the pound is as high as it is and this could be potentially damaging for the economy, Mr Archer added.
Mr Archer believes that the pound will continue to fall because huge government borrowings and rising unemployment mean that the outlook for the British economy remains bleak.
Mr Kings comments came a day after the Bank of England warned that Britains tentative recovery could be a false dawn, despite issuing a relatively upbeat economic forecast.
According to the minutes of the Banks latest interest rate meeting this month, published yesterday: There had been a number of developments during the month with positive implications for the short term. But the lesson from previous financial crises was that they were not resolved quickly, and that there could be false dawns.
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Lloyds Banking Group Just May Be Able to Exit Bank Bailout
by: Research Recap September 24, 2009
The prospect for Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) escaping the UK Goverments bank bailout scheme have gotten a boost from a new research report on the UK banking sector from Execution analyst Joseph Dickerson.
The Independent reports that Dickerson issued a buy recommendation on Lloyds, arguing that the bank would be better off without the asset protection scheme (APS), which he said was a sub-optimal way to recapitalise the sector and should be reconsidered.
He hopes that the group opts for a rights issue instead, suggesting that banks with substantial government ownership have a higher cost of capital than those that do not. Reduced funding costs would benefit the net interest margin, which in turn would boost earnings, Mr Dickerson explained.
Lloyds has an opportunity to change this by not participating at all, he said. 15bn of net (we forecast 16bn including a 1bn termination fee to [the Treasury]) non-Government capital is likely to reduce Lloydss cost of funding substantially.
For those worried about whether Lloyds could raise the amount required, he added that a 16bn capital raise is not a big ask because, if [the Treasury] takes up its rights, the amount of capital needed from the market is [around] 9bn.
FT Alphaville offers further analysis, adding that based on Dickersons calculations Lloyds would emerge with a fortress balance sheet and a leverage multiple in-line with the major US banks.
The FTs Lex was skeptical on Sep 18 about LLoyds chances of pulling off such a deal:
Lloyds is thought to need at least 15bn-20bn to avoid the APS altogether, maybe more. But that is a tall order. Even if it raised 6bn by selling Scottish Widows and Clerical Medical, that would leave a shortfall of 14bn more than HSBCs record rights issue. A small cash call might be feasible. Yet it is fanciful to believe that Lloyds could raise any equity without the APS, let alone any of the other alternatives Mr Daniels seems so keen to pursue.
The Scotsman reported that most analysts think Lloyds will have to raise money to reduce the amount of assets in the APS, and hence the governments stake in the bank, but not exit it altogether.
The idea of Lloyds exiting the APS is unlikely primarily because raising 15bn to 20bn isnt a viable option, said Exane BNP Paribas analyst Ian Gordon.
Also bullish on Lloyds is UBS, which reiterated its buy rating on Sep 8. Analyst John-Paul Crutchley argues that the bank is fundamentally an undervalued company.
On the basis of normalised earnings, around two years out, we see Lloyds as worth around 180p-200p/share, making the company worth around 80bn. In our view, the debate around the APS comes down to how this value is carved up between the UK Government and private shareholders.
West LBs Neil Smith see the bank as a valuable UK franchise, if not spoiled by state aid disposals, but maintains a Neutral rating pending resolution of the APS issue.
INGs Andreas Mavrikakis also is taking a wait-and-see approach, maintaining a Hold status. On normalised EPS we see up to 100% upside in the long term and more limited downside. However, we believe LLOY will underperform short term especially if the plan works, despite managements signal that impairments peaked in 1H09.
CreditSights on Sep 18 said we felt the most likely alternatives for Lloyds would be a renegotiation of the terms of GAPS and/or a reduction in the assets to be covered by GAPS, in conjunction with a capital raising exercise, rather than a full withdrawal from the scheme.