Oh dear, two large companies combine and, like an intergalactic "event" only negative matter remains....a case of 1 + 1 = 0.2

Let me say - sp a year ago was 10x today's - so this business has earned its place in the 90% club....and maybe more to come, as they will need to go overseas for cash, if the UK is dry.

I doubt there is a UK Builder with enough dosh to bail-out this dullard. They all thought they could expand until the UK burst with immigrants - yet they consistently went for pricier properties and projects where ( even now), there is some doubt whether there are enough jobs to support new-build developments.

EDIT ( Nov 2015 ) - Seven years on and we're at 183p - so anyone that bought at the all-time Low has done very well - but the Market was fearful and that meant few were Buying. 2009/2010 averaged about 40p - that was a good time if you had the LT cash.
With the rise and yield-multiplier effect, this is looking like Buying it was "probably" inspired.... but it has not regained that earlier Value - which will surely take a lot longer.

Yes!!!!!


Looking at the chart there is a nice channel and one would expect a rebound.

The MACD RSI (other than short average) and Stochastic suggest time for a rise.

The volumes are small but again suggest up.

The fundamental projections are reasonable and would support SP of 130 +


This year yield ain't worth much but 2015 promised very acceptable.

Perhaps I am to greedy!

Yes it is annoying BDEV 's the same ,you would think house builders would be strong at the moment.

New Mortgage Rules.

That is the concern for me with New House builders.

UMMH!

the "new rules" are actually little more than better defining what lenders should be doing in the first place
for sure there'll be a bit of extra delay initially, but it'll settle down quickly enough, and i'ld have thought the delay in processing would only be a matter of 7/10 days max

will it affect housebuilders?
not really .... we still need lots of new houses, though rather off-track, i don't like the idea that apparently there is no minimum on the number of starter homes (housing association stuff and the like) that will be required at ebbsfleet

A bit crude (as ever!).

i agree not very pretty at the moment, and for sure i'ld like to see sp back above that 200 dma mark, but longer term - i hold both in and out of pension - i think it's one of the top few in the sector

jimmy b, don't despair. Deutsche issued
the usual Buy recommendations for TW. and BDEV yesterday.
TP maintained for both.

midknight ,i don't despair here i'm sure this will come good .

May 2: Citigroup: Buy - TP: 131p.

Citigroup note as per the upgrade in post #753:
Sector View — "Valuation has become less stretched as share prices have fallen significantly over the last month and performed poorly YTD. Seasonally the sector typically runs out of steam into May and negative sentiment around higher UK interest rates may continue to weigh on sector share prices in the near term. However, looking out on a 12-18 month horizon and assuming that the macro backdrop remains favourable, we expect the sector to continue to deliver good growth in net assets and see more attractive valuations post the recent sell-off as offering opportunity. We believe investors with a more medium-term view should revisit the sector, which now offers, based on 2015E estimates, a number of stocks at a discount to long-run average valuation multiples despite the attractive recovery potential, strong balance sheets and prospect of capital returns. We upgrade Taylor Wimpey and Redrow as they now look more attractive on valuation.
Macro View — Citi economists' expect GDP growth of +3.5% and +3.6% for this year and next with unemployment falling towards 5% in 2015. Base rates are expected to see the first hike in Q4 of this year with the first stage of the tightening cycle to see rates move up to 2.5% in late 2015. They recently wrote that they see the current housing trends as far more like a long housing boom just getting going, as in 1996-98, rather than the end of cycle excesses of 1988-89 and 2006-07.
Company View and Changes — We have modestly upgraded our estimates for Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Redrow on the back of the recent trading updates and continue to see upside risk for sector consensus earnings for the full year. We move Redrow's target price to 350p and upgrade Redrow and Taylor Wimpey to Buy ratings on valuation. We highlight Bellway and Bovis as the cheapest stocks in the sector on 2015E P/NAV multiples of c.1.15 times. Persimmon, Berkeley Group and Taylor Wimpey offer attractive dividend yields of c.7% for 2015E"

Brewin Dolphin think the opposite!:
Friday 2nd May 2014- As the Bank of England reveals a fall in mortgage approvals, wealth manager Brewin Dolphin thinks that the next downturn in new housebuilding could be on the horizon.
Equity analyst Stephen Williams believes that the recovery phase in the sector is nearly complete as companies start to plan for the next downturn. “Any suggestion that the current upswing is different from the last should be viewed with caution,” warned Mr Williams. “The sector is inherently cyclical and the next cyclical downturn could occur at any time from 2016.” He added that many management teams in the housebuilding sector are already preparing for this eventuality as they return surplus capital to their investors.
“The housing cycle will turn down in due course and that, when it does, it could do quickly. With the potential risks of rising interest rates, tightening mortgage lending criteria and falling demand from overseas buyers, we believe that the upside is now limited.” He said that the consequence of the mortgage market review (MMR) could be a hiatus in lending as mortgage companies ask further questions about how customers will pay for their home loans if rates rise. The Bank of England figures this week, showing a further fall of mortgages approved in March 2014 are an early sign of this, he said.
For those who have been invested in housebuilders, Mr Williams suggests selling and investing in companies that have other construction interests as well, allowing them to benefit from the next stage in the economic cycle – increased spending on infrastructure projects. He likes Kier Group, which is yielding over four per cent."

Thanks for the contrarian view Harry - I can't make my mind up on the sector atm.

On edit:-

I remember posts like this the last time things started to look toppie - obviously TW etc are at the other end of the food chain.


£800k for a studio flat.

Rebirth of a London icon (2:13)

Nor can I, though currently not holding any of these. I like the yield from PSN, but that is the only thing attracting me to this sector.
In a way, the two brokers above agree that the sector is probably near to it's peak, as Citigroup only see a modest upgrade to current valuations and seem to imply that they also think there is potential for interest rates and government tightening of the lending criteria to adversely affect the house builders. Not quite sure what they mean by a 'medium term view', but I take that a cautionary note to their strategy.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4809213

12 May Deutsche Bank 158.00 Buy
8 May Deutsche Bank 158.00 Buy


This has lit the fire for now wonder if this will last .

Market Report

Housing, mining shares rise

Housebuilder Taylor Wimpey gave a bullish outlook on Tuesday with a "new and enhanced set of financial targets" as the housing market goes from strength to strength. The company also said it will return at least £200m of cash per year from 2016 on top of the £50m special dividend in July 2014 and £200m in July 2015.

Others in the sector were also given a boost by the comments, such as Barratt Developments, Persimmon and Crest Nicholson.

15 May Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy
15 May Jefferies... 173.00 Buy
15 May Goldman Sachs 178.00 Conviction Buy
14 May Deutsche Bank 165.00 Buy

May 15: Jafferies International retains Buy
TP upped from 151 to 173

Anyone still awake here ?