why on earth has this exciting pharma company been ignored her for the last 3.5 years? ...... lots has happened in that time, generally for the better on the longer view ..... from a purely chart point of view, the 200 mda is rising quite steadily, with sp recovering well after a sharp fall, and now, after a brief tease below, is therefore probably worth buying on that basis alone.

From memory, Shares mag was also quite excited about this stock a week or two back, even though that medium has supported some classic stinkers in its time

Panmure Gordon comment:
"As expected, Abbvie terminates its offer for Shire, triggering the break fee of $1.64bn. Shire will likely re-commence its acquisition spree which should boost organic double digit growth to high teens over the long-term. With such growth, we believe the stock will trade at a premium to its peer and group and as such re-iterate our Buy recommendation.
It is possible that the loss of 4 months strategic direction may have damaged those plans. Key staff may have made their own exit plans (evidence by the exit yesterday of the interim CFO). However, Shire's rare diseases business remains an attractive asset and we expect Shire to have multiple suitors. Allergan has been mentioned, and GSK should also take an interest in Shire’s portfolio.
With a break fee of $1.6bn confirmed payable entirely at Shire's "sole and exclusive remedy for all losses and damages in connection with the transaction", Shire will at least be compensated somewhat. Investors will worry that Shire's defence plans are too ambitious. As part of its defence, Shire made a compelling case to grow its Revenue base of $10bn by 2020. For a company growing consistently in double digit range, the implied CAGR of 12-13% appears achievable. The company remains acquisitive and Lumena / Fibrotech (+any future ones like NPS, Cubist and/or Salix) should help growth."

Deutcshe Bank comment:
"Following a period of restriction, we are resuming research coverage of Shire with a BUY rating and a new target price (TP) of 4,550p per share. Despite the distractions of the merger process with AbbVie, the company continues to perform well: better-than expected 2Q results led to a FY guidance upgrade (to low/mid 30% EPS growth) and last night's press release confirmed that trading has "remained strong" since the end of 2Q. Furthermore we note that Shire will this year receive an additional $2bn cash ‘windfall’ from a combination of the AbbVie break fee and a Canadian tax settlement. Against this, we now assume a 12-18 month delay to US launch of adult ADHD drug SHP465 (to 2H16), reflecting additional FDA clinical requirements. Our fine-tuned EPS estimates are shown below, although we highlight that these are likely to be adjusted further following the publication of 3Q results on Friday 24 October.
One week prior to AbbVie's interest in Shire becoming public, we published a 38-page report assessing Shire's longer-term prospects ("Pipeline optionality not reflected in shares; forecasts and TP lifted", 9 June 2014). In this we set out why we believe the company’s pipeline could deliver non-risk-adjusted revenues of greater than $4bn pa, equivalent to 70% on top of the current sales base. Consequently - and likely supplemented by business development deals - we continue to expect Shire to deliver double-digit EPS growth over the medium/long term (EPS CAGR 2013-18E: 17%). We further note that the forecasts in our pipeline report were consistent with those later published by Shire in its long-range plan ("the path to $10bn in product sales by 2020").
Our TP is derived by applying a 20x PE (unchanged) to 2015E non-GAAP EPS (using $ £ 1.62; previously 1.68). This PE is arrived at by comparison with a group of fast growing mid-cap pharma companies and reflects our confidence in the sustainability of growth. In support of this, our DCF indicates a similar (higher) value/share (greater than 4,900p). Risks relate to sales trends for key brands, R&D news, rare disease competition and Lialda patent challenges (note: Shire averted the threat of early generics to Vyvanse via its litigation win in June).

Shire to announce third quarter 2014 results
Dublin, Ireland - 21st October, 2014 - Shire plc (LSE: SHP, NASDAQ: SHPG) will announce third quarter 2014 earnings on Friday 24th October, 2014.

Strong bounce on good quarterly results.

http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4910447

and through 200 dma at that

Tell you what Cynic lets trash this thread now like you and the boys have trashed the chart thread, lets all have a bit of fun.........

aldwickk View aldwickk's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:21 - 2232 of 2235

Been headhunted aswel Zak Mir ...Tips TV, Jim Mellon....T1PS, Tom Winnifrith......shareprophets/Clem Chambers, iii have all asked if I was available to do a piece/column for them.

Under what name ? You have so many to choose from
goldfinger Send an email to goldfinger View goldfinger's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:29 - 2233 of 2235 edit this post

Whats your point alders?
doodlebug4 - 24 Oct 2014 12:32 - 2234 of 2235

Lol, aldwickk! That's a very good point - rumour is that it's going to be WalterMitty.
cynic Send an email to cynic View cynic's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:42 - 2235 of 2235

i like dd4 .... let's hope sticky doesn't get the hump at that jolly jape

looks like a very subdued day all round .... i suspect ev dow will be range bound between about 16,600 and 16,700, or 16,750 at a push

Tell you what Cynic lets trash this thread now like you and the boys have trashed the chart thread, lets all have a bit of fun.........

aldwickk View aldwickk's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:21 - 2232 of 2235

Been headhunted aswel Zak Mir ...Tips TV, Jim Mellon....T1PS, Tom Winnifrith......shareprophets/Clem Chambers, iii have all asked if I was available to do a piece/column for them.

Under what name ? You have so many to choose from
goldfinger Send an email to goldfinger View goldfinger's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:29 - 2233 of 2235 edit this post

Whats your point alders?
doodlebug4 - 24 Oct 2014 12:32 - 2234 of 2235

Lol, aldwickk! That's a very good point - rumour is that it's going to be WalterMitty.
cynic Send an email to cynic View cynic's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:42 - 2235 of 2235

i like dd4 .... let's hope sticky doesn't get the hump at that jolly jape

looks like a very subdued day all round .... i suspect ev dow will be range bound between about 16,600 and 16,700, or 16,750 at a push

Tell you what Cynic lets trash this thread now like you and the boys have trashed the chart thread, lets all have a bit of fun.........

aldwickk View aldwickk's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:21 - 2232 of 2235

Been headhunted aswel Zak Mir ...Tips TV, Jim Mellon....T1PS, Tom Winnifrith......shareprophets/Clem Chambers, iii have all asked if I was available to do a piece/column for them.

Under what name ? You have so many to choose from
goldfinger Send an email to goldfinger View goldfinger's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:29 - 2233 of 2235 edit this post

Whats your point alders?
doodlebug4 - 24 Oct 2014 12:32 - 2234 of 2235

Lol, aldwickk! That's a very good point - rumour is that it's going to be WalterMitty.
cynic Send an email to cynic View cynic's profile - 24 Oct 2014 12:42 - 2235 of 2235

i like dd4 .... let's hope sticky doesn't get the hump at that jolly jape

looks like a very subdued day all round .... i suspect ev dow will be range bound between about 16,600 and 16,700, or 16,750 at a push

Deutsche Bank note today:
"Re-focusing on exciting independent growth potential; reaffirm BUY
Shire's independent future is an exciting one, in our opinion. Its goal of market leadership in rare diseases, coupled with strong current momentum (evidenced by raised guidance for "high thirty percent" EPS growth this year) and a pipeline that could deliver peak sales of circa $4bn pa, by our estimates, point to a stock that is undervalued on just 16x 2015E EPS - a multiple in-line with slower-growing large cap pharma. With the biggest mid-term risk to earnings removed (as a result of the Vyvanse patent win), we lift our TP and reaffirm our BUY rating.
3Q highlights strong current momentum; high 30% FY EPS growth expected.
Despite the potential distractions in the quarter, Shire delivered exceptional 3Q results (sales/EPS up 32%/60%) and lifted its FY EPS growth guidance to the “high thirty percent range” (implying c.5% consensus EPS upgrades, assuming market forecasts reflected prior guidance for low/mid 30% growth). While the launch of Intuniv generics would slightly crimp 2015, we lift our EPS forecasts by 4-6% pa and now expect an EPS CAGR to 2018E of 18% (was 17%).
Reiterating pipeline optionality ahead of R&D day on 10 December
In this report, we update our commentary on Shire’s new drug pipeline which, by our estimates, includes a potential blockbuster (lifitegrast for dry eye disease) plus six drugs with sales potential of $0.5bn pa or greater. In aggregate, we calculate that drugs/indications to be launched by 2018 have a peak sales potential of c.$4bn pa, with an additional $1bn+ potentially coming from the introduction around 2019 of two rare disease programs (Sanfilippo A, MLD). Supported by initial launch sales from this portfolio, we note that our forecasts are broadly consistent with the “10x20” program unveiled by Shire in June under which it targets sales of $6.5bn by 2016 and $10bn by 2020. We expect to hear more at an R&D day for analysts and investors on 10 December.
Valuation & risks: Buy, TP raised to 4,850p (from 4,550p)
Our new TP is derived by applying a 20x multiple (unchanged) to 2015E non-GAAP EPS. This multiple is arrived at by comparison with a group of fast-growing mid-cap pharma companies and reflects our confidence in the sustainability of growth. In support of this, our DCF indicates a somewhat higher value/share ( 5,500p). Risks relate to sales trends for key brands, pipeline news, rare disease competition and Lialda patent challenges."

Above the 200 and looking strong.

StockMarketWire.com
Berenberg Bank retains hold on Shire, target increased to 4,100p from 3,400p.

What do the brokers know???
My first target is 4600p. Sp currently 4439p.

StockMarketWire.com
Shire has announced plans to relocate over 500 positions to Massachusetts from its Chesterbrook, Pennsylvania, site and establish Lexington, Massachusetts, as the company's US operational headquarters.

The transition is a continuation of the company's `One Shire' efficiency programme and will streamline business globally through two principal locations - Massachusetts and Switzerland - with support from a limited number of regional and country-based offices around the world.

StockMarketWire.com
Morgan Stanley reiterates overweight on Shire, target raised from 4700p to 5200p.

StockMarketWire.com
Shire Pharmaceuticals today announced that the companies have entered into a merger agreement pursuant to which Shire will acquire all the outstanding shares of NPS Pharma for $46.00 a share in cash, for a total consideration of approximately $5.2bn.

Shire will accelerate the growth of NPS Pharma's innovative portfolio through its market expertise in gastrointestinal (GI) disorders, core capabilities in rare disease patient management, and global footprint.

The transaction has been approved unanimously by the Boards of Directors of both Shire and NPS Pharma.

NPS Pharma is a rare disease-focused biopharmaceutical company and its first product, GATTEX/REVESTIVE (teduglutide [rDNA origin]) for injection, is approved in the US and Europe to treat adults with short bowel syndrome (SBS) who are dependent on parenteral support. NPS Pharma also has a registration phase product, NATPARA/NATPAR (rhPTH [1-84]) for the treatment of hypoparathyroidism (HPT).

The $46.00 per share price in the transaction represents a 51% premium to NPS Pharma's unaffected share price of $30.47 on December 16, 2014.

Shire CEO Flemming Ornskov commented:

"The acquisition of NPS Pharma is a significant step in advancing Shire's strategy to become a leading biotechnology company. With our global strength and expertise in both rare diseases and GI, Shire is uniquely positioned to drive the continued success of GATTEX/REVESTIVE, and, if approved, commercialize NPS Pharma's pipeline compound NATPARA/NATPAR.

"We look forward to accelerating the growth of the NPS Pharma portfolio based on our proven track record of maximizing value from acquired assets and commercial execution. The NPS Pharma organization will be a welcome addition to Shire as we continue to help transform the lives of patients with rare diseases."

Feb 13:

Credit Suisse 5000p Neutral
Barclays... 5000p Equal weigh
Kepler... 5300p Buy
Jefferies... 5800p Buy
Deutsche Bank 5700p Buy

The headline says: Exclusive

SP down as Shire proposes combining with Baxalta

Guardian comment:
The old wisdom said hostile deals don’t work in
the world of cutting-edge pharmaceutical research
because successful science requires willing partners.
In the current bid-a-week biotech bonanza, such niceties
can be thrown out of the window, it seems. Shire, the
Dublin-based and London-listed outfit, has gone hostile
with an all-share $30bn approach to US group Baxalta
after being given the cold shoulder by a company spun
out of former parent Baxter only last month. “You have
left us with no choice but to make our proposal known
to your shareholders,” wrote Flemming Ornskov,
Shire’s chief executive and chief-deal-doer, to his Baxalta counterpart.
No choice? In today’s biotech world, that is indeed the thinking.
The sector is awash with mergers and acquisitions and all are
obliged to play..