Welcome to the new thread for Max Petroleum. Here's a link to the MXP web site and a presentation that everyone should read.

http://www.maxpetroleum.com/companypresentations.asp

yes. added around 100p.

what are your thougths on this stock? MXP have been declining.

Buy low and sell high!

These are looking good at this price

been looking for an entry but the action suggests something is wrong here?

Still holding and doubled up @ 114p. I thuoght that was a bargain! Still confident long term.

Pond life
In your posting 73 what was the source of this information? Is the CFD information available to the public?

I can't believe this stock is down considering the FTSE Aim market is up 1%??

hjs - This was released by Cazenove on 17 August. see reference to forced selling due to margin calls.

Max Petroleum - upgrading to outperform [MXP LN 80p



OUTPERFORM, Sector OVERWEIGHT
>
> Max Petroleum - upgrading to outperform [MXP LN 80p] OUTPERFORM,
> Sector OVERWEIGHT
>
> Following the recent share price collapse in Max Petroleum, we are
> upgrading our recommendation from IN-LINE to OUTPERFORM.
>
> In the last three days, Max Petroleum's share price has fallen from
> 175p to 81p......on the back of no apparent fundamental reason.
> Indeed, we cannot see anything vaguely ominous on the horizon.
> Granted, the markets have been volatile, and indeed the whole E&P
> sector has suffered, but Max's share price fall has been excessive. In
> our opinion, it cannot be justified by increased investor risk
> aversion, nor by momentum in line with the sector sell-off. As such it
> is our belief that the fall has been driven mostly, if not purely, by
> technical reasons - most likely forced margin calls. Notwithstanding
> the possibility of further volatility in these markets, we upgrade our
> recommendation to outperform.
>
>
> Share price fall is excessive
>
> In the last few weeks, the E&P sector, like the wider market, has
> fallen. By virtue of their speculative nature, pure exploration
> focussed companies have fared worse than their cash generating,
> producing peers, as investors' appetite for risk has fallen as a
> result of the volatile markets. Since Monday, the AIM Oil & Gas index
> has fallen by 11% and is 16% off its peak (23 July 2007). However, Max
> has fallen 54% in the last four days, and is now 61% off its high of
> 209.5p (13 July 2007).
>
>
> No fundamental reasons for the share price weakness, story remains the
> same
>
> There appears to be absolutely no fundamental reason for the share
> price weakness. Max's title to its licences is not under threat, we
> are not awaiting any imminent newsflow from a material well which
> could be dry, the macro environment in Kazakhstan has not
> deteriorated. Similarly, we do not believe that Max is more at risk of
> any liquidity problems than any other explorers in the sector as a
> result of the recent credit crisis. If anything, Max has sufficient
> funding capacity available to it - it raised $75m through a
> convertible bond issue last August, it recently benefited from c$20m
> of cash from an exercise of warrants, it negotiated a $100m debt
> facility with Macquarie Bank in April 2007, and production from the
> Zhana Makat development is starting to ramp up. Moreover, Max's high
> equity stakes in its licences mean that it has the option of farming
> down. The prospectivity of its acreage is such that we believe a
> number of majors could potentially be interested in carrying Max on an
> exploration programme in exchange for exposure to exploration upside.
> Similarly, Max's exploration programme has substantial flexibility in
> it - it can always delay or drill a few less wells if costs are too
> onerous.
>
> In fact, recent newsflow from the company has been positive, with
> government approval for their Zhana Makat development, and better than
> expected production rates from several Zhana Makat wells. Moreover, in
> the coming months, drilling newsflow is expected to ramp up, and in
> the case of exploration companies, share prices tend to rise before
> drilling programmes in speculation of potential success.
>>
> Share price back at extremely attractive levels
>
> On 4 June 2007, we downgraded our recommendation for Max from
> OUTPERFORM to INLINE as we believed the shares ought to stabilise
> around the 180-200p price level until material newsflow from drilling
> commenced, especially considering that Max had been the sector's best
> performer in 2007 - at its peak, it was up 123%. However, at current
> levels, we are buyers of the stock.
>
> By virtue of Max's early stage model, we do not have a core NAV for
> the company, as we would with more mature E&P companies. Instead, we
> have estimated a risked exploration upside number of 430p - this is
> based on mean resources, as estimated by Max's competent person, and
> our in-house estimates of NPV per boe for undeveloped reserves in
> Kazakhstan. There is no scientific rule as to where a share price
> should trade in relation to a risked exploration number or an expected
> monetary value. However, our experience has shown that on average, the
> market applies a 50-70% discount to EMV. The degree of discount
> depends on perceived calibre of management, depth and breadth of
> drilling programme, funding requirements, and potential blue sky
> upside. Given Max's strong management team, experience within
> Kazakhstan, multi-well and multi play type exploration programme etc
> it can be argued that Max ought to suffer a lesser discount than some
> of the other junior explorers. Hence, we believe that Max should trade
> at the higher end of a share price range 130p - 215p. Clearly, at 80p,
> Max looks attractive.
>>
> In our opinion, once the technical sell off has run its course, Max's
> share price ought to recover significant lost ground as value
> investors take advantage of the extremely low share price. As such, we
> increase our recommendation to OUTPERFORM.

The story I heard is that David Rignoll, aka Tigakhan, was using his 41 million shares to back a large CFD position and was targeted by the city spivs. As the price dived he couldn't meet his margin calls and positions had to be liquidated. The one hole in this story is that we haven't had an RNS affecting Rignoll or Tigakhan directly, but we have had announcements about Man Financial and other who could have been holding his positions. Interesting also that Deutsche Bank shed 12 million shares - bringing ABN Amro on to the share register.

I am confident in MXP in part, because of the high quality of institutional investors:

Credit Suisse
Credit Agricole
Deutsche Bank
ABN Amro

Monday tomorrow, first trading day of a new month. Here's hoping for a strong recovery in MXP.

This is old news.

I know - I was answering a question from hjs - keep up hlyeo :-)

Sorry, don't mean to offend u.

Thank you Pond life for your response to my question.

buyers coming back!.

dodgy or what!

MXP suspened, click HERE for the news.

Anybody know what has gone wrong?

From what I can ascertain - having read thruogh 4-500 posts over the road on advfn - the CEO and COO have possibly been involved with an Australian miner seeking to break into Kazahkstan and could have received some options for their efforts. This could just be a conflict of interest story. In any case, the word is that ongoing company operations are unaffected.
Clearly unsettling though, and I'd rather it hadn't happened. After a rocky ride this last month, a suspension and whiff of wrong doing are not what we need.
Confidence could take a battering. Let's see how the story unfolds and how long it's going to be before the shares return to trading.

This must have something to do with the run up in the share price and subsequent precipitous fall.