looking at the sp Inchcape appears to have withstood the big fall in sp. down c.50% since Aug07 - the start of the Credit Crunch . . . . .

By comparison look at INCH and PDG (Pendragon) - from abouit 2005/6 they are somewhat similar (ignore noise!) and then at Aug07 the charts change - such that Pendragon is now about 80% down.

Why has Inchcape fared so much better?

They claim they are "independent" - but I can't imagine this means they are not tied to the Manufacturers - otherwise they won't get the best discounts, will they?

So when will INCH suffer similar falls....?

Can't say I'm impressed by Inchcape's website - far too strong on investor relations...which really means no information at all.....where are the Best Car-Deals?

EDIT (12Nov08), some Director-buying boosted this to 78p, but it slipped back on Media News that car sales are dire (and Retail!), so I suppose no-one expect this to improve for another year - 50p someone?
(Last month Dir-Buy was minute - 7k which wouldn't buy a Dir-car....oops!)

The full note......

Consumer, Cyclical

Inchcape (INCH.L) Catriona O'Grady...........+44-20-7567 2892
Analyst
catriona.o-grady@ubs.com

Alex Hugh, CFA.............. +44-20-7567 5816
Analyst
alexander.hugh@ubs.com

Price (07 Dec 2012)..............436p/US$6.98
12-month rating..... Prior: Not
Rated => Buy
12m price target...........- => 515p/US$8.26
Market cap...................£2.02bn/US$3.23bn
Full-Year EPS
2012E................................................ 39.00p
2013E................................................ 42.18p

Getting into gear Initiate coverage with a Buy rating and 515p price target
Inchcape is a leading global automotive distributor and retailer. It operates in 26 markets,
carrying out distribution activities in 22 and retail in four. Inchcape holds a premium weighted
brand portfolio with six brands accounting for 90% of profits. We estimate APAC/emerging
m.arkets will generate 70% of FY 12 EBIT. Structural attractions set to continue
Inchcape offers exposure to three areas of structural growth: 1) We expect an increase in car
penetration in Inchcape’s emerging markets, where current rates are 26% below global
averages; 2) We forecast further premiumisation with 79% growth in premium sales across
Inchcape’s emerging markets by 2019E; 3) We have dissected Inchcape’s revenue streams and
believe aftersales is the most defensive and highest margin activity. We see it growing to 19%
o.f sales and 54% of gross profit by 2016 as emerging markets car parcs’ grow and mature. Singapore and the UK offer cyclical upside
Some 35% of the Singaporean car parc is 6-8 years old and will likely be replaced in the next
two to four years – in line with the 10-year Certificate of Entitlement (COE) cycle. We see a
recovery in 2014 with 18% like-for-like (LFL) growth forecast for South Asia. We estimate a
return to peak revenues for the UK gives 12% potential upside to group EBIT, although this is a
m.edium-term story. Valuation: 515p price target based on a blend of PE, EV/EBIT and SOTP
Inchcape trades on 10.4x 2013E PE and 6.9x EV/EBIT, both below 10-year averages of 11x
and 7.4x, respectively. Our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation implies a fair value of 526p. We
calculate Inchcape delivers a 27% cross-cycle conversion ratio, attractive returns and is cash
positive. We initiate with a Buy.
-
European Morning Meeting Highlights 11 December 2012
UBS

INCH INCHCAPE

14 Dec Inchcape PLC INCH Deutsche Bank Buy 0.00 437.00 480.00 515.00 Retains

SP Target 515p

Deutsche Bank Reaffirms Buy Rating on Inchcape (INCH)

December 14th, 2012 - 0 comments - Filed Under - by Tyrone Williams
Filed Under: Analyst Articles - UK - Stock Market

Inchcape (LON: INCH)‘s stock had its “buy” rating reiterated by investment analysts at Deutsche Bank in a note issued to investors on Friday.

Shares of Inchcape opened at 437.10 on Friday. Inchcape has a one year low of GBX 276.20 and a one year high of GBX 452.10. The company’s market cap is £2.011 billion.

A number of other analysts have also recently weighed in on INCH. Analysts at Exane BNP Paribas reiterated an “outperform” rating on shares of Inchcape in a research note to investors on Tuesday, November 27th. They now have a $7.21 price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at Investec reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Inchcape in a research note to investors on Monday, November 26th. They now have a $8.02 price target on the stock. Finally, analysts at Nomura reiterated a “neutral” rating on shares of Inchcape in a research note to investors on Thursday, November 22nd. They now have a $7.02 price target on the stock.

Inchcape plc is an automotive retailer and distributor. As December 31, 2011, the Company operated in 26 markets, of which it operated as distributor in 22 of these, with retail only operations in the United Kingdom, Poland, Russia and China.

http://www.dailypolitical.com/finance/stock-market/deutsche-bank-reaffirms-buy-rating-on-inchcape-inch.htm

2012 Annual Results Announcement

Operational and strategic highlights:

· 12% adjusted EPS* growth in 2012 (3 year CAGR of 14%)
· Over 70% of Group trading profit now derived from Asia Pacific and Emerging Markets
· Record profit in Australasia and North Asia, and a record trading margin in the UK
· Post period end, acquired Trivett Automotive Group, Australia's largest premium automotive group

Financial highlights:

· Reported sales up 4.4% to £6.1bn (2011: £5.8bn)
· Pre-exceptional PBT up 10% to a record £250.3m (2011: £227.7m)
· Reported PBT up 24% to £251.5m (2011: £203.4m)
· Operating cash flow of £249.2m (2011: £244.7m)
· Final dividend payout ratio increased to 40%, Board recommends final dividend of 10.5p per share giving a total dividend for the year of 14.5p per share (2011: 11.0p), up 32%

14 May Inchcape PLC INCH Deutsche Bank Buy 526.00 527.00 585.00 585.00 Retains

585p SP Target.

A car sales firm worth looking at again, anyone traded them over the last year?