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Oilbarrel Newsletter 28th July 2010
July 27, 2010
Poweralternatives: SeaEnergy Acquires Value Through Its Stakes In Three Large Offshore Wind Farms -- By Stewart Dalby
Broker Nomura Code Securities has written an exhaustive and exhausting paper on its client SeaEnergy PLC in the wider context of wind power in the UK. A central finding of Nomura is that there is a looming 23 GW energy capacity shortfall in the UK which only nuclear and wind power particularly offshore wind power can fill.
What? wind power, I hear you say. Has not wind power become discredited, if not by our governments then by scientific opinion and self appointed media experts as a panacea for the UKs energy problems.
The Investors Chronicle, drawing heavily on www.withouthotair.com, the website of a book of the same name by a Cambridge University physics professor David Mackay, published an article which was critical of the UKs last Labour governments initiative to build numerous farms offshore in the North Sea. The so-called Third Round launched by that government is extremely ambitious. The labour government dished out enough acreage in 9 zones in the Third Round to build 32 gigawatts ( GW) of generating capacity. On one scale that is equivalent to 30 small power stations. The government of the day was keen to tell us the power from this lot would be enough to generate a quarter of the UKs demand for electricity.
But the scheme is less impressive when you look at the detail. True, 32 GW is a lot of power but it wont go that far. The 32 GW is the theoretical maximum. In practice every power station operates below its maximum, and if its a wind farm, its load factor will be far below. For example, take the Kentish Flats wind farm in the Thames estuary, which came on stream at the end of 2005. It was supposed to have a load factor of 36 per cent. On that assumption, it should generate 3.2 watts of power for every square metre of its 10 square kilometres. But in its first year of operation, its load factor ran out at 29 per cent and it generated 2.9 watts per square metre. Assume a load factor of 30 per cent for the putative 32 GW of capacity and you have about 10 GW of real power only enough for everyone to drive the theoretical family car for 3.3 miles per day as opposed to the 10 miles a day the 32.GW would give.
It is important to point out the growing doubts about the efficacy of offshore wind power because it could be germane to the financing of the Round Three projects, the latest development round of offshore wind farms. The financial community in the City of London has not, in a generalised sense, taken to the idea of offshore wind power. However, it could be that the Investors Chronicle is missing something in its sweeping criticism of offshore wind power.
Joel Staadecker, CEO of SeaEnergys 80 per cent owned subsidiary SeaEnergy Renewables Ltd (SERL) says: It is not for me to justify what Nomura says but I think the note on SeaEnergy is tightly written. It says if the UK is to meet its commitments to obtain a certain amount of its energy needs from renewables by certain date then offshore wind power is the best available option
Seen in this context offshore wind power looks justifiable and SeaEnergy with its oil and gas heritage and unique deep water wind expertise has a key stake in the exercise with 781 MW of potential power across three sites. This is equivalent to 8 per cent of the total planned UK deployment for the foreseeable future. Nomura argues that among the low carbon options the multi GW scale of the capacity rules out many renewables. Hydro cannot be significantly expanded, tidal and geothermal are too limited and early stage, wave power is promising but will do well to reach 1 GW of capacity by 2020. There is optimism that the UK feed-in tariffs system will stimulate a boom in solar that might deliver capacity on the GW scale by 2020. But this translates into only a few per cent of UK demand given the average plant load factors (PLFs) of under 10 per cent.
What is the significance of plant load factors? Put simply, 1 M W of capacity from different sources doesnt equal the same. 1GW of gas is worth 1.1 GW of nuclear, 2GW of offshore wind, around 3GW of onshore wind and probably 9GW of solar.
Whatever the arguments for and against offshore wind, the nine tenders in the Third round were tall taken up. The bids came largely from utilities like Scottish and Southern Energy. SeaEnergy is the exception in that it is a pure wind farm play.
How did a small company with a market of 30 million and limited funds became a player in this capital intensive industry? It is estimated that the successful implementation of all nine projects in Round Three will cost 100 billion.
SeaEnergy used to be Ramco Energy, an oil gas company. Ramcos modus operandi was to acquire oil and gas assets and trade them with major oil companies. Ramco famously held a stake in othe Azeri, Chirag, Guneshli (ACG) oil field in the Caspian Sea. It originally held 40 per cent of what was to become a 5 billion barrels field. But it traded most of its stake with a BP-led consortium and walked away with, if memory serves, some US$150 million. Ramco also had a services company.
SeaEnergys success in winning major offshore wind assets alongside utilities mirrors its O & G business. Versus oil, utilities lack offshore experience. This has made Sea Energy attractive to utilities and the Crown Estate, which owns the seabed.
SeaEnergy got its start when a team including Joel Staadecker built the Beatrice Demonstrator wind farm. The Beatrice field is owned by Talisman Energy and is in deep water in the North Sea. The two 5 MW turbines project was funded by Talisman, Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE) and various government bodies including the EU, UK and Scottish Executive. It had a number novel features. For example, the water depth, 40-45 metres required a different foundation method from the monopiles used for shallower waters and so a jacket structure was adopted from the oil and gas industry.
The project was finished in July 2007. The Beatrice core team was recruited by Ramco, as SeaEnergy then was, to form its new SeaEnergy Renewables Ltd( SERL) subsidiary, in which the Beatrice team hold 20 per cent of the equity.
After the Beatrice Demonstrator construction, SeaEnergy bid in the various UK rounds. The Crown Estate Round 1 was a pilot phase with farms limited to 30 turbines. Round 2 in December 2003 represented a scaling up. But it was in February 2009 that SeaEnergy really got among the projects. In that month it was announced that the company had been successfully awarded exclusive rights to develop two of the ten Scottish round sites, The 920 MW Beatrice (75 per cent Airtricity SSE, 25 per cent SeaEnergy) and 905 MW Inch Cape (75 per cent RWE, 25 per cent Sea Energy) are the second and third largest sites in the round. SeaEnergys model was the same as that used in the Caspian Sea in Ramcos daysa smaller company leveraging its unique assets to win a place alongside much larger players based on its experience in offshore and deep waters.
In January 2010 Sea Energy with its partner EDP Renovaveis (75 per cent) won the exclusive rights to develop Zone 1 Moray Firth, a 1.3 GW zone in the UK Round 3.
With construction of the Scottish round beginning in 2014 and the UK Round 3 in 2015 there is no plan for a further new round that would lead to construction before the end of the current decade.
On the basis of the 25 per cent stakes across three sites giving it an interest in 781 MW of power. Nomura values SeaEnergys at 121p a share. There seems to be nothing in the price for projects the company has won in Taiwan and China.
Nomura arrives at its valuation by saying: There are a growing number of valuation benchmarks from deals at each stage of development from 150,000/MW at the consent stage (2012/13) to 550,000MW at financial close. It is this period before the major expenditure on turbines and installation, that generates the most attractive returns on capital. With a 38 million share of expenses generating 10 times this asset value, at the current stage benchmarks imply that Sea Energy is worth 121p/share, with scope to rise to over 400p/share at financial close in 2013/14.Our forecasts include the costs associated with all the sites developement, but assumed sale of only one site at financial close in 2013.
After the Nomura note was written, RWE npower, SeaEnergys partner in the Inch Cape development notified SERL of its desire to exit the project. This is due to the considerable size of its other onshore and offshore renewable generation
commitments.
After this, Sea Energy announced a restructuring. It said: In order to maximise shareholder value and given the tough current financing environment, the company intends to dispose of all or a significant part of its holdings in SERL and has initiated a formal sale process.
A successful sale would allow the company to accelerate the development of its marine services business with the prospect of near-term earnings and cash flow. It seems that several third parties are interested in acquiring all or part of SERL.
Joe Saadbecker is sanguine apart the companys prospects. He told oilbarel.com: I am sure we will continue as a successful wind farm development company.