I think it`s about time CSH had a thread, an AIM oil co. that is producing oil and quality stuff at that. These are vastly under-valued, market cap. 30 mill., they are going up on news NOT hype. check them out.
Dexter

aldwikk,
Texas teade!
The mm's are desperate for are shares. IMHO I think the next few weeks will be good for CSH. News must be round the corner and the share price will rise. I hope the mm's loose out big time. That will teach em!!
Anyway, my ham, egg & chips are ready so gonna tuck in.
wilbs

A couple of posts from the other side, they make interesting reading,
Dexter
*******************************************

Bit of background stuff about Kazhakstan, intersting final parapraph

"EBRD chief urges Kazakhstan to diversify economy and join WTO

Wednesday December 8th, 2004 - The president of Europe's development bank on Wednesday urged the government of oil-rich Kazakhstan to work toward diversifying the economy, ensuring further growth and accession to the World Trade Organization.

"Our very strong view is that the stress must be put on the diversification of the economy," said Jean Lemierre, president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, or EBRD.

Kazakhstan is one of the most economically advanced former Soviet republics in Central Asia. But its economy depends heavily on extracting raw materials, with most investment concentrated in its oil and gas sector.

Lemierre said Kazakhstan must develop non-energy branches of its economy and maintain openness to investors if it wants to be part of the global economy.

"WTO is an element of openness. It's part of the (investment climate) picture," Lemierre told reporters. "WTO must be ... on the road map of Kazakhstan. It's clear that some reforms must be driven by this target to make sure it's a success."

The WTO regulates international trade rules.
Lemierre also said that, at his expected meeting with President Nursultan Nazarbayev on Thursday, he would raise a question about a new Kazakh law adopted last month giving the Kazakh government priority in buying stakes in the country's energy projects.

Observers see the move as part of effort to increase the national oil company KazMunaiGaz's participation in Kazhakstan's oil and gas sector, and to elbow out the foreign investors that now dominate it.

The EBRD has invested about US$320 million (240 million) in Kazakhstan this year, and is planning to put in at least the same amount next year, Lemierre said.

Lemierre on Wednesday also signed deals with the Kazakh CentreCredit and ATF banks to lend US$10 million (7.5 million) to each to develop small and medium-sized businesses.
Kazakhstan produces about 1,000 barrels of oil a day, aiming to triple output in the next two decades to become one of the world's top five oil exporters."

********************************************

From the CIA's website (really!)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/kz.html

Economy - overview:
Kazakhstan, the largest of the former Soviet republics in territory, excluding Russia, possesses enormous fossil fuel reserves as well as plentiful supplies of other minerals and metals. It also is a large agricultural - livestock and grain - producer. Kazakhstan's industrial sector rests on the extraction and processing of these natural resources and also on a growing machine-building sector specializing in construction equipment, tractors, agricultural machinery, and some defense items.

The breakup of the USSR in December 1991 and the collapse in demand for Kazakhstan's traditional heavy industry products resulted in a short-term contraction of the economy, with the steepest annual decline occurring in 1994. In 1995-97, the pace of the government program of economic reform and privatization quickened, resulting in a substantial shifting of assets into the private sector. Kazakhstan enjoyed double-digit growth in 2000-01 - and a solid 9.5% in 2002 - thanks largely to its booming energy sector, but also to economic reform, good harvests, and foreign investment.

The opening of the Caspian Consortium pipeline in 2001, from western Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield to the Black Sea, substantially raised export capacity. The country has embarked upon an industrial policy designed to diversify the economy away from overdependence on the oil sector, by developing light industry. Additionally, the policy aims to reduce the influence of foreign investment and foreign personnel; the government has engaged in several disputes with foreign oil companies over the terms of production agreements, and tensions continue.


Mentions the Governments potential intervention again!

Siskinbird - 1 Feb'05 - 11:09 - 81 of 105


JTK

From the CIA's website (really!)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/kz.html

Economy - overview:
Kazakhstan, the largest of the former Soviet republics in territory, excluding Russia, possesses enormous fossil fuel reserves as well as plentiful supplies of other minerals and metals. It also is a large agricultural - livestock and grain - producer. Kazakhstan's industrial sector rests on the extraction and processing of these natural resources and also on a growing machine-building sector specializing in construction equipment, tractors, agricultural machinery, and some defense items.

The breakup of the USSR in December 1991 and the collapse in demand for Kazakhstan's traditional heavy industry products resulted in a short-term contraction of the economy, with the steepest annual decline occurring in 1994. In 1995-97, the pace of the government program of economic reform and privatization quickened, resulting in a substantial shifting of assets into the private sector. Kazakhstan enjoyed double-digit growth in 2000-01 - and a solid 9.5% in 2002 - thanks largely to its booming energy sector, but also to economic reform, good harvests, and foreign investment.

The opening of the Caspian Consortium pipeline in 2001, from western Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield to the Black Sea, substantially raised export capacity. The country has embarked upon an industrial policy designed to diversify the economy away from overdependence on the oil sector, by developing light industry. Additionally, the policy aims to reduce the influence of foreign investment and foreign personnel; the government has engaged in several disputes with foreign oil companies over the terms of production agreements, and tensions continue.


Mentions the Governments potential intervention again!

From UK Analyst Tuesday 1 February 2005:

Buy Caspian Energy at 46p
Suggests Stewart Dalby of Oilbarrel.com
We wrote last November that although the market seemed to love pure exploration plays but perhaps investors should look at oil development development companies.

Caspian Holdings floated on London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM) on the 4th November 2004 raising 4.4 million pounds before expenses and giving the Company a market capitalisation of 19.4 million at the strike price of 23p.

The Company is different to some of the crop of companies which have floated on AIM in that it is not promoting itself on the basis of possible huge exploration upside. The strategy of the Company has been to focus on shallow oilfields that combine the benefits of lower exploration and development costs, a shorter lead-time to production and higher returns on funds invested as compared to deeper targets that are traditionally targeted by the major oil companies.

This strategy has led Caspian to identify and acquire existing production in the form of the Zhengeldy oilfield in Kazakhstan. The Company plans to quickly develop and bring Zhengeldy into full production.

Thereafter, the Company will focus on identifying and acquiring similar type assets within the greater FSU region and Europe, particularly where synergies exist. In February 2004 the Company agreed to acquire a 70 per cent interest in Taraz LLP - the operating company that directly or indirectly owns the licences, leases and other assets that comprises the Zhengeldy oilfield. On September 1, 2004 Caspian Holdings entered into binding agreements to acquire the 30 per cent interest in the field.

The Zhengeldy salt dome was discovered in the 1930s and parts of the field were brought into production in the 1940s. Output was later stopped because of the small amount of oil production and the lack of infrastructure to transport the oil.

In the past six months an independent surveyors report has upgraded the proven and probable reserves from 4 million barrels to 13.2 million barrels of low sulphur (0.31 per cent). The estimate was based on the Z5 well, which was drilled to a depth of 718 metres. The well tested oil in the deeper Triassic layers. Other layers are Aptian, Necocomian Jurassic and Triassic I + II. It is believed there is scope to extend the reserve base by extending the lease area from 1.5 sq kms to approximately 30 sq kms.

Kazakhstan is one of the hottest oil provinces in the world. The Kashagan oilfield offshore in the Caspian Sea could have 40 billion barrels, which would make it one of the largest fields anywhere. The Tengiz field onshore can produce 1 million barrels of oil a day making it one the largest. Kazakhstan is vast (it is the size of Australia). It also borders the landlocked Caspian Sea. In the past, the large independent producers in Kazakhstan have been hampered by high transport costs and lack of infrastructure.

Caspian Holdings intends to show smaller companies can flourish in Kazakhstan. Two factors stand out. First, it is a shallow oil producer, which means the cost of wells is relatively cheap. The Company reckons it will cost US$350,000 to drill a well. Moreover the operating cost or lifting cost will be US$2.3 per barrel.

On the basis of five wells to be drilled in 2004 and 10 in 2005 Caspian is targeting 1,400 barrels per day by the end of 2004 / early 2005 and 4,300 bpd by the end of 2005, with each well producing an average of 288 bpd.

Second, Caspian Holdings is strategically well located. It is just north of the giant Tengiz oilfield. There is a 750 kms pipeline between Tengiz by way of Atyrau on the Caspian Sea which will become a 1,500 kms pipeline to Novorossiik on the Black Sea. This is run by the Caspian Pipeline Company. Zhengeldy is just 18 kms from Makat, the central loading storage depot for this and other pipelines. Alternatively there is transport by train. The field is 180 kms from Atyrau, from where it can be shipped across the Caspian. Pipeline processing and sales cost were put at US$9.50 a barrel in September 2004.

What the company needed was some news flow and now we have got that Despite some appalling weather three wells have been drilled and Caspian has started on the on the first of four new wells in its programme which should be completed by the end of April. Caspian is aiming to produce 4,300 b/d by the end of 2005, which will make it a cash flow rich company so at 46p it is definitely a buy.

Share price: 44 - 48p

Stockmarket: AIM

Symbol: CSH

NMS: 3000

Mkt Cap: 40 million pounds

beat me to it grevis2 !!

dexter01: Good article!

grevis2,
Are you in CSH ?, if you want some good research have a look on advfn CSH thread started by jaystom. I have psted some bits on here if you look back.
Dexter
are you out there today wilbs ?

Hi dexter,
Im here, been a bit busy doing some research and setting up my new laptop. Good posts. My portfolio seems to be rather quiet today. I have also signed up to betfair.co.uk. Have you heard of it? I learned about it off the Traders BB.
Hows your day been?
wilbs

hi wilbs,
I`ve heard of betfair, is`nt it one of those betting exchanges ?, what will you use it for?.
It`s been a bit quiet today, was hoping for a spike first thing as happened the last few days.
Dexter

dexter,
Not much volume on csh today, everyone must be piling into wlw. I used to hold in wlw but got fedup with them so sold about a year ago. Wish I had of kept them cos I bought in at about 38p. Hindsight eh!!
Im not a betting man really but betfair looks pretty good. I will have a few punts on the footie & see how it goes. There is a course running on it in Feb & one of the topics is how to suceed and make a living off it. I will give anything a go once.
wilbs

Hi dexter01: Yes I have a few of these. Bought them last week. Very tempted to buy more before the next RNS. However I've been holding back until I'm convinced that profit taking has finished. Fundamentals look very good so I'll have to be careful not to miss the boat. Good luck!

wilbs, are you about?.Do you get the tips etc from uk analyst, only there is a weeks trial of level 2 etc, that`s if you don`t already subscribe!
dexter

Hi dexter,
I'm here. I get tips from uk analyst but diddn't know about the trial of level 2. I couldn't of been paying much attention!! Think I will give it a try. Have you signed up? I signed up to the free live streaming prices on Digital Look but its crap. Money am is worth the money.(hope you are reading this Ian, would like a free trial of level 2 on here!!)
I bought into cop again yesterday and got out today with a small profit and topped up with seo> Share of the year I think.
wilbs

wilbs,
how`s the new laptop ?, one that might be worth keeping an eye on today is BRP, new on AIM today, if some other newcomers are anything to go by it might be worth a quick in and out, as it were!.
dexter

cheers dexter,
I will keep an eye on it but not got much spare funds at the moment, most of it is now in seo. The laptop is good, Ive got share scope on it so ive got all the info at hand. TV commerce is due to float around the 21st feb, it should also be a good in and out.
wilbs

dexter,
do you use hoodless brennan? Have you seen their research note on csh? I have tried to paste it on here but cant cos its in pdf. If you are interested I will try and copy it on here when I have a bit more time.
wilbs

wilbs,
no i use comdirect,if you could paste it, i would be grateful,
thanks,
dexter

Here you go dexter,
you may have already seen it on another bb.




Hoodless Brennan & Partners Plc, Registered No. 2693942, St. Alphage House, 2 Fore Street, London EC2Y 5DH
AUTHORISED AND REGULATED BY THE FINANCIAL SERVICES AUTHORITY LTD (REGISTER NO 155104) MEMBERS OF THE LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE,
NASDAQ EUROPE AND OFEX
Hoodless Brennan & Partners Plc
40 MARSH WALL DOCKLANDS LONDON E14 9TP
Telephone: +44(0) 20 7538 1166 Fax: +44(0) 20 7538 1280
hbp@hoodlessbrennan.com
www.hoodlessbrennan.com
CASPIAN HOLDINGS 26.5p SPECULATIVE BUY
Broker: Hoodless Brennan & Partners Listing: London AIM
Sector: Oil & Gas Market Cap: 20.7m
Reuters: CSH.L Year High/Low: NA
Website: NA Next Results: Preliminary results, March 2005
Caspians focus on the Zhengeldy Oil Field targets a four fold rise in production based on very confident
proven reserve data. The Board are pursuing a careful strategy that could see revenues rise to US$39m in
2006.Overall the exposure to Kazakhstan comes at a very positive time for the oil sector generally.
Caspians experienced team seem to have acquired a low risk producing asset very cheaply.
To 31/6 2004 i
(Jan- June) 2004F
Turnover (k) 0 1,020
Admin Expenses (k) 207.8 600
Operating Profits (k) -207.8 -3,380
PBT (k) -206.8 -3,340
EPS (p) NA -4.25
P/E NA NA
Dividends (p) 0 0
NAV (p) -0.2 4.85
Strengths
Very strong regional infrastructure- 4m proven
barrels under licence with a risked total of 13.2m
Competent persons report has valued assets
between US$25m-US$100m based on $28 bbl
Market Cap/ 2P reserves just US$2.90 per bbl
Very positive outlook for global oil prices due to
demand from China/ Asia Pacific/ limited new
discoveries
Weaknesses
Field discovered in 1931 and brought into
production during 1941-45 however oil flow
required assistance to reach surface using old
techniques
Limited/ loss making trading record/ dependent on
exploration success above 30% level in risked
estimates
Business Background & Activities
Caspian Holdings is the 70% owner of Taraz the
operator of the Zhengeldy oil field, which comprises
shallow producing oil assets and licence interests over
1.5km. The licence, granted on May 27th 1999 runs
for 25 years expiring in May 2024. An application has
been made to extend the licence to 30km.The field is
18km from Makat, where the principal oil storage and
pipeline network is located and near large oil field at
Tengiz and Kazagen. Caspian has secured production
and export permits.
An option agreement with the Taraz vendors will
enable Caspian to buy-out the 30% minority interests
for US$621k and 1.22m new Caspian shares. Caspian
will therefore have total control over the producing
assets and be able to consolidate accounts.
The immediate objective; to expand production at the
Zhengeldy field is based on the risked reserve
estimates of 13.2m barrels at Zhengeldy- the
equivalent of 8 years of production at the target of
4,300bbls per day. These reserve estimates were
completed by Ecopetrol SRL (AGIP, Fina,
Montedison) who assigned a minimum value of
US$25m to the property valued at US$28.50 per
barrel. Ecopetrol gave a maximum value of US$100m
for the Zhengeldy assets.
Assuming the drill target is met Caspian could report
US$39m in revenues in 2006 with a net income of
US$20.4m assuming corporation tax and royalty levels
remain constant. Key to these numbers is not just
finding oil, but oil that comes to the pump, without
costly recovery techniques. A drill programme costing
US$6m will be completed using funds raised from
IPO (3.8m). 5 new wells and one workover are
planned in 2004; 10 further wells in 2005. Once these
capex costs are incurred Caspian is not expected to
incur significant further expenditure on its existing
property.
$50 oil shows a fundamental supply/ demand shift
As widely reported the surge in oil prices in 2004 has
been attributed to very tight supply/demand balance
given 20% annual Chinese demand growth and
declining production at a number of major fields.
Whilst speculative funds have sustained prices, OPEC
could struggle to meet demand forces in 2005 as well.
Activities Market Financials
Oil & gas exploration/ production in
Kazakhstan
Number of shares: 78.4m
Market Makers: 3 NMS: 3,000
Screen Size: 5,000
Bid/Offer: 25p/ 28p (11%)
NAV/Share: -0.2p
Net Gearing: nil
Op. Cash Flow: (4.4m) 2004
Strategy- expand in Kazakhstan via land projects
Kazakhstan was host to the worlds largest major
offshore oil field find in 30 years at Kashagan (40bn
barrels) in 2000. About half national production
comes from three onshore fields; Tengiz,
Karachaganak and Uzen. Caspian Sea oil reserves
(2P) are estimated at 243bn barrels. Major onshore
areas are under-explored but the Caspian Sea area
itself has been a major hydrocarbon region for 100
years. The legislation is very favourable to petroleum
exploration and export with excellent infrastructure.
Royalties of 5% of production are payable to the
state; corporation tax is 30%.
The team envisage the immediate development of the
Zhengeldy oil field (costing US$6m) via a drill of 15
wells. The targeted oil production of 1,400 bbl/day
end 2004 and 4,300 bbl/day end 2005, equates to
US$38.8m annual revenues assuming oil finds
confirm seismic data. The target is to achieve this
production over the next 10 months. The low risk
approach will see onshore licences developed first
prior to any offshore interests. Due to inadequate
pipeline infrastructure near Zhengeldy, the crude will
have to be trucked to refineries (US$9.50 per barrel).
Management
Michael Masterman; Formerly McKinsey (1986-95)
serving majon resources companies. In 1996 joined
Anaconda helping to transform company into a major
nickel producer with the US$1bn Murrin Murrin
project in WA. In 2002 became CEO of Northsun
Italia developing 3 gas fields in the Po Valley.
Dietmar Greil; Experienced reservoir engineer; over
30 years experience in various senior positions at
Statoil, ChevronTexaco and Preussag Energie.
Worked in the FSU for 15 years/ drilled over 40 wells
building Rosscor Int equipment supply business.
Founded Northsun Italia in 1997 as CEO.
Michael Garland; Held the post of Commercial
manager for Tullow Oil, previous experience in
banking via CIBC. Currently chief executive of
Maverick Oil & Gas in London.
Malcolm James; Financier, played an active role in
equity and debt fundraisings in excess of A$2bn.
Non-executive of Tianshan Goldfields, Siberia
Mining and Eureka Mining.
Recommendation
Current production of 288 bbls per day (US$13.6k)
needs to reach targeted levels of 4,300 bbls without
too many dry wells! The valuation at 20.7m post
money seems to reflect the reserve base of 13.2m bbl
(MCAP/ reserves of $2.90) the attractions of oil rich
Kazakhstan and the teams considerable experience in
realising oil & gas assets and starting production
capabilities. Caspians advantages are the high
confidence of its proven reserves (4m) and its
onshore low cost structure. The shares will be very
sensitive to news from the Zhengeldy exploration
drill, and oil price strength cannot be guaranteed
indefinitely. SPECULATIVE BUY
Analyst: Ravi Lockyer, 4th November 2004
KEY RECENT EVENTS INCLUDE
30 May 03
17 Feb 04
4 Nov 04
Company incorporated as Caspian Hldgs
Agreement to acquire 70% Taraz licence
AIM IPO; 17.57m shares at 23p
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS INCLUDE (%)
M Masterman 14
D Greil 14
RAB Capital 1.7
Hoodless Brennan 1.77
Gartmore Institutional clients 1.97
FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Year End 31st December
Interims September 2004
Finals March 2005
MANAGEMENT INCLUDES
Dietmar Greil Executive Director
Michael Masterman Executive Chairman
Michael Garland Non-Executive
Malcolm James Non-Executive
RISK WARNING NOTICE
All investments are speculative and prices may change quickly and go down as well as up. Past performance will not necessarily be
repeated and is no guarantee of future success. There is an extra risk of losing money when shares are bought in some smaller
companies including penny shares. There can be a big difference between the buying price and the selling price of these shares and if
they have to be sold immediately, you may get back much less than you paid for them or in some circumstances, it may be difficult to sell
at any price. It may also be difficult for you to obtain reliable information about the value of this investment or the extent of the risks to
which it is exposed. Where a company has chosen to borrow money (gearing) as part of its business strategy its share price may become
more volatile and subject to sudden and large falls. This investment may not be suitable for all investors, and clients should carefully
consider their own personal financial circumstances before dealing in the stock market, particularly those on fixed incomes or
approaching retirement age. If you have any doubts you should seek advice from your investment adviser or your broker at this firm.
AIM: The Alternative Investment Market (AIM) is market designed primarily for emerging or smaller companies. The rules of this market
are less demanding than those of the official List of the London Stock Exchange and therefore companies quoted on AIM carry a greater risk
than a company with a full listing.
MATERIAL INTEREST: We endeavour at all times to ensure that our research is clear, fair and not misleading, however, we do not hold our
research out as being impartial and it should not be viewed as wholly objective since Hoodless Brennan & Partners Plc (including its parent
company and its subsidiaries, their directors, officers or employees) may have or previously held a material interest in the company which is the
main subject matter of the research note, or any other company mentioned, and may be providing or have provided within the previous 12
months significant advice or investment services in relation to any company or a related company referred to in this document, or any other
associated document. This document has been prepared and issued by Hoodless Brennan & Partners Plc on the basis of publicly available
information, internally developed data and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst all reasonable care is taken to ensure that the facts
stated are accurate and the opinions given are fair and reasonable, neither Hoodless Brennan & Partners Plc nor any director, officer or
employee shall in any way be responsible for its contents. This document is intended to provide clients with information and should not be
construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.

wilbs

thanks wilbs,
very interesting, one that might be worth keeping an eye on is NBR, on a dip at the moment, but could be an RNS anytime. it could even jump on no news, ripe for a day trade !
dexter

no problem dexter,
I was in NBR but sold out with a small loss. Looks very prommising for NBR. You can't beat a good day trade!!
wilbs

it`s ok if the old strawberry can take it!