Pre IPO price 4p
Opening price on debut 25p
Floatation price 46p to raise 14million to extend Jolly Ranch
Current fair value estimate 114p
Market cap 70.59 million.
Value of Cisco Springs investments 98 million.
Value of Vogel investments 75 million.
Desparado trucking now Nightfox 250,000 for a 50% stake with partner Running Foxes.
Centurion Project Kansas, 150,000 for a 50% stake.
Jolly Ranch Colorado, 40,000 acres cost 356,000 for a 50% stake.
Cash in bank 7.75 million.

As this EPIC opens on AIM today anything could happen. On the one hand you have traders trying to cash in a sixfold profit. You will also have a clambering of traders after shares because, firstly they could only get 75% of their allocation because of demand. Secondly at 25p this company is still way under valued.

perhaps that was what the market decided it did not much like

cynic perhaps the market thinks DB's stategy of developing Jolly Ranch and then selling it off to a major is looking flawed especially with oil at $50 or lower in the near future.

Halifax & cynic are clearly these two individuals:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7h15xIoVwWw

Ok, I didn't make the AGM but from trawling the boards' here is what should shut you muppets up:

Some juicy quotes from the posters:

"Mike Thompson mentioned that Jolly has the potential for a billion barrels" [recoverable]

"Jolly breakeven at $10/b"

"intending adding wells to the waterflood fields at 100/year and I took that to mean individually ,not in total."

"..the supreme confidence of the directors"

"Average lease price paid at Jolly about $50/acre with no time restrictions and 1/8 royalty.Bluebird cost less than $100/ac.
Lease purchasing decreasing, but may well pickup odd fields like Bluebird if available, from conversation afterwards.
Jolly breakeven cost around $10/b
Improved fraccing technology in shales is central to Jolly's value. Estimated 200ft effective radius from bore.
The 5m placings are with 5 existing or former(1) holders."

"Jolly ranch is big, very big, and he kept mentioning how oil shales were quite new, and the market hasnt woken up to the size of the resource yet. He pointed to a gas shale play that had just been part sold at eqiv. $5k/a..
We are at an early stage, but all indictions are good."

"We are aiming for a couple of dozen wells to proove up properly the project, which may take a year. Of course, word is getting out, and we may have takeover interest at any time.
Mike said Steve may 'aim for the top' and talk to the big players, now we are 'critical mass'. I take that to mean that we now have enough acerage to be worth majors taking a look at us to especially bolster their reserves."

"Placing was mentioned many many times, but i got the impression that to keep going at this fast pace, even keep up with ST, we need to fund the production... DB emphasised production, now we have moved on from exploration.Debt financing is too early, sale of projects again too early.. so 5 insti's invited to subscribe. Market crap, hence 20p."

"DB mentioned plan a,b,c,d which i take to mean if someone wanted to buy a project, buy a %, or whatever we would look at all possibilities. Cisco spring sale was mentioned by floor, which wasnt discounted, but sounds like gas price still poor, shut in, and rockies pipeline will open up markets."

"80 acre spacing, = 3000 potential wells, 100-125k bbls recoverable 1/3, 1/4 recovery rate = 1 billion bls oilfield ([Director] mike numbers)"

"waterfloods mentioned,not as high up the list, but we are beginning to see meaningful oil. This is a long term project, that once up to pressure, will be a steady and profitable cash cow."

"in the presentation Mike stressed that there are several plays in each well, 2 shales, marmaton, plus others. We will be testing cherokee shales, which he thought may be better than atoka. We have to be methodical, and properly evaluate all we have, rather than just going for flat out production."

"currently we have 9 wells, and a tenth drilling. Of the 9, 6 are on pump.

we wont be sucking the guts out of them, rather seeing how they perform, and looking for the 100 bopd. This is goundbreaking stuff, there is no textbook to follow. We also dont know what the depletion curves will be, so assuming similar to gas at 66% as a model, although clearly its just a guess at this stage, but right to err on pessimistic."



Thats a nice few quotes from t'other BBs. This is all coming together and the fence sitters should think very carefully about the comments that a bid may come from nowhere. My 2 cents is that bids will never be this cheap again due to the $50 or so oil price, and bidders will be aware of this.

Respects to the posters I quoted randomly above.

gnashlevel2 just accept a possible 5000bpd by mid 2009 never mind all the other tosh/pie in the sky!

halifax - for the third time, it wasn't the figures it was your outlandish claim you were told of a target before the market, what DB eats for lunch & other market sensitive information. But, if we have 5000bpod by mid-2009, then I would by then also expect to hear of our first bid talks by then as a consequence, and so we all win, muppets and all.

cynic's IEC halifax -worth a punt?

i shall be more than happy to see HAWK at 80p and certainly the indications are that the company is being groomed for a sale.

as for the price of crude, even though it is only +/-$50 today, i would expect to see it substantially higher in say 6 months time

Well I think we all agree that Nighthawk looks like a pretty good bet for the next year regardless of whether their production will be 5000 or more barrels, wouldn't it be nice if in 6 months time we would all be looking at a 120p stock or so......a pat on the back to all in that case....we shall see....!.

gnashlevel2/required field if you really want the truth about oil/gas development in Colorado suggest you visit Colorado gas and oil conservation commission web site DYOR.

This is the thread to follow guys !.

hawk is heading to its placeing price of 20p as shares are been dilueted.

get a dikshunary

gnash .... hope you aren't using CFDs for your holding here, or even using them as collateral

Well...the graph is not reflecting the latest price...afternoon rebound !.

Now it's going down again....roller coaster indeed !.

either way, the price of the placing does not affect the sp, though of course dilution might

This will come right.....oh ! for a nice Chrismas oil price rise.....now, where's that letter to Santa I was writing ?

Just seen this on Oil barrel most likely posted already so sorry if its repeated. Nighthawk estimated recently that oil in place for conventional reservoirs in the Centurion project area vary from 5,000 to 500,000 barrels of oil per well on 40 acre spacing depending on reservoir characteristics. With output set to climb across its portfolio, this is an exciting period for Nighthawk followers. In the face of tumbling oil prices investors can also take some comfort that this is fairly low cost production too. The waterflood project wells can be sunk for around US$40,000 each and can payback investment within six months based on a US$60 oil price. 26/11/08
Certainly worth a punt as far as I can see.

So mcmahons you live with gnashlevel2 on planet pluto, get real Hawk is hoping to achieve production of 5k bopd by mid 2009, total produstion of oil in Colorado in 2007 was 27 m barrels. More pie in the sky!

Suggest you go to the Oil Barrel site thats where I got the information if you feel Oil barrel is not a News site you can trust fine give them an email.
Let me know if you need help finding the site the report as I mention above was posted on the 26/11/08 always a pleasure to hear from you.

mcmahons oil barrel is just another tipsheet like TW's Ti1ps.com. ,their guess is as good as mine. Let us see some actual production and sales from Hawk then we can all make a serious assessment of their prospects. Too many PI,s have been burnt by following tipsters and rampers of late, especially if they followed bad advice and invested in small E&O companies.