Dragon Oil plcs principal production and exploration interests are located in the Cheleken Contract Area in the Caspian Sea, offshore Turkmenistan. The Cheleken Contract Area covers approximately 950 sq.kms and comprises two offshore oil and gas fields, Dzheitun (LAM) & Dzhygalybeg (Zhdanov), in water depths of 10 to 37 metres.

            Red = 25 day moving average.           Green = 200 day moving average.

only a few 00??? ..... so much for holding huge slabs of stocks A,B,C through X,Y,Z!

some news for rf and cyril as about only 2 on this board.........

Dragon recommends ENOC bid at 455p. Passes significant
value to ENOC. RAISE TARGET PRICE TO 805p to reflect
independent value, recommend shareholders to hold out
Dragon Oil has announced that it has reach agreement with Emirates National Oil
Company for a full bid for the remaining 48.5% of the company at 455p in cash, which
the Independent Committee of Dragon Oil will recommend. The bid values Dragon at
$2880m including the $962m in cash at the end of October, at $1.64=1. This gives a
value of $9.73 per barrel on Dragons Net Entitlement reserves of 296mb, and we
estimate $5.55 per boe including contingent gas reserves.
While the detail of the offer document highlights the premium against previous
benchmarks (11% to Fridays close, 34.6% to the 338p the day before the bid was
announced and 65.1% to the 30day average before the announcement), we think this
level of bid passes too high a proportion of future value to ENOC, and represents a
level that ENOC can afford to pay NOT what the stock is worth.
Even at a highly attractive 20% return to ENOC, we estimate Dragon at 540p based on
our model of the long term cash flows of both crude and gas production, a model which
has been seen by Dragon and the logic confirmed.
We think the background of financial constraint in Dubai is constraining ENOCs ability
to finance a deal at fair price, and it is going ahead with a bid at this level in the hope
that it may pull it off. The problem for them is that for approval, ENOC require 90% of
the minority shareholders to confirm the offer; with ENOC already at 51.5%, this means
that need to get around 95% of the full shareholding, and given the share structure,
opposition by just a few of the larger shareholders would be enough to block approval.
We believe ENOC is the only deal in town for now and would not expect an alternative
company to bid. Nor do we expect ENOC to raise their offer to anything like we see as
fair value. Which leaves investors with the options of taking cash now at a substantial
discount to fair value, or holding on for the long term value of Dragons cash flows.
These cash flows are from proven reserves on existing production at reasonable terms,
which we see as a very attractive proposition. At a 12% discount rate, we estimate the
value of Dragons cash flows as equivalent to 805p per share.
We think obstruction of the bid has two benefits for shareholders: 1) it captures more of
the fair value of Dragons reserves and 2) it may initiate a reversal of ENOCs position
and allow another company to look at Dragon. If we are correct in assuming ENOC
(and Dubai) are cash constrained (and the length of time taken on this supports this), it
is arguable that an attractive offer from a third party should be taken seriously.
Please note that NCB is not advising either ENOC or Dragon oil, and is able to provide
independent views, valuation and recommendation.
Conclusion & Action: We strongly recommend independent investors NOT TO
ACCEPT THE OFFER from ENOC, which we estimate at a 40% discount of the value
of Dragons independent cash flows. Given that ENOC have failed to come forward with
a realistic bid based on a 20% IRR, we look at what Dragon is worth independently,
and we are raising our target price to 805p, a significant uplift which highlights the
real attraction of Dragons assets.

who is NCB other than the now defunct National Coal Board?

the board other than ENOC must hold a good slab of these shares, and i dare say the institutions have also been consulted.
can the deal be blocked?
possibly, but do that and there will assuredly be a massive backlash with sp dumping perhaps 100p ..... nice time to buy if that happens.

my advice would be to sell in the market and watch - but what do i know (lol)!

are there any dragon oil shareholders out there! jes, cant believe just 2 comments from others today and cyril las left too now

Marni, i sold out of EEN once offer was made 736p i believe,i then used the funds to buy into CEY (mid 80's,now 129p)as i saw more scope in doing so against holding on. I have now bought PCI(16.1p) with some of my profits from DGO as i see more upside as against holding?
Congratulations on your success with DGO and best of luck with your decision.
cyril

on further reflection, my post 759 absolutely MUST be the right course of action, for there's nothing worthwhile to be gained by hanging on and plenty of downside if the bid is indeed blocked

thanks cyril

a lot of tiny sells todays with the big volume.

i assume enoc will get this daylight robbery of a so called offer......i feel as though i've been mugged.

its like have a tenner in pocket and then suddenly got 450p

The MMs have been keeping the price down by about 1.5%, assuming the bid will be exactly at 455p.

Given gas reserves, I expect a second bidder to appear soon.

get a life! .... this is a done deal, whether the likes of you or marni like it or not .... must be a palestinian conspiracy or some such crap!

price is always lower than the bid price due to time element or similar
sell in the market and move on

9p beow the bid price.

read and digest and act on post 765 .... why on earth are you surprised?

15 November 2009, 1:41pm

The company is called Dragon Oil, but it is the small shareholders who are breathing fire.

The proposed takeover of Dragon Oil by its largest shareholder - a state-owned Middle Eastern oil group - has stirred up rage among its small investors and the case looks set to be a cause celebre for the activists among retail investors who hope to block the takeover.

Machinations for the buyout have been under way since the summer when Emirates National Oil Company, which holds 51% of the shares, said it was considering the bid.

Two weeks ago the independent directors of Dragon Oil announced that they were recommending shareholders accept a 455p-a-share bid from Enoc.

Much muttering followed, but then last week fund manager Baillie Gifford announced that it would oppose the takeover and use the 4.2% of the shares it holds to vote against Enoc's bid. That has sparked a grass-roots rebellion.

The rebellion's merits are straightforward. The price, while at a hefty premium to the market price of Dragon Oil before talks were announced, was below the target prices forecast by just about every City analyst following the stock.

Dragon Oil has rights to an offshore oil field in the Caspian Sea thought to contain about 645 million barrels. Hopes for future value hinge on two factors - the price of oil and the efficiency with which Dragon Oil manages to extract those reserves.

The case for the takeover is that by getting cash now, shareholders are being spared those risks.

But the reason so many small shareholders are angry, I suspect, is because they are perfectly happy to take those risks. That is precisely why they chose to invest in an oil exploration company.

So can the rebels succeed? In short, probably not - but it could be close.

The takeover is structured in such a way that it must be approved by 75% of the independent shareholders.

The crucial word 'independent' means that Enoc and its 51 per cent holding are excluded from the calculation. In other words, to block the deal will require 25% of the 49% of shares not held by Enoc, or about 12.25%.

Baillie Gifford holds 4.2% and so must convince investors holding a further 8% or so of the shares to vote with it. That may not sound like much, but when the other rebels are likely to be very small shareholders with tiny stakes in comparison it could prove a tall order to mobilise such a rebel force.

If they win, of course, Dragon's share price could fall quite sharply - in which case those small shareholders will have every opportunity to prove they have the kind of nerves of steel needed to take a risk on an oil-drilling company.


http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/markets/article.html?in_article_id=493945&in_page_id=3&position=moretopstories
______________________________________________________________________
Not over untill the fat lady sings?
cyril

which is exactly why it's a damn fool idea to keep holding ..... for once, if you sell now you win whichever way matters turn out

Further to the announcement on 2 November 2009 regarding the recommended acquisition for cash of the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Dragon Oil plc ("Dragon Oil") not already owned by the Emirates National Oil Company Limited LLC ("ENOC") (the "Acquisition"), the Board of ENOC has confirmed to the Independent Committee of Dragon Oil that the price of 455 pence per Dragon Oil Share is final and will not be increased and that, whether or not the Acquisition is successful, ENOC remains a committed long-term majority shareholder in Dragon Oil.

In the same joint announcement by the Independent Committee of Dragon Oil and the Board of ENOC on 2 November 2009, the Independent Committee (having been so advised by Davy Corporate Finance and HSBC) stated that the terms of the proposed Acquisition by ENOC are fair and reasonable for the minority shareholders of Dragon Oil.

The Independent Committee reiterates that the cash offer of 455 pence per Dragon Oil Share will provide the minority shareholders of Dragon Oil with the opportunity to realise a cash exit at a significant premium of 34.6 per cent. to the Closing Price of 338 pence per Dragon Oil Share on 3 June 2009, the last Trading Day prior to the announcement by Dragon Oil that it had received an approach in relation to a possible offer, and reiterates that the terms of the proposed acquisition are fair and reasonable for the minority shareholders of Dragon Oil.

The Independent Committee confirms that it continues to recommend unanimously that Dragon Oil Shareholders vote in favour of the Acquisition.

It is envisaged that the Scheme Document, containing further details of the Acquisition, will be issued to Dragon Oil shareholders later this week.

cyril

wish i had had the balls to short this .... never mind, but risk/reward is now not worth it

If the rebels succeed the sp might rocket because you could take the view that the company is undervalued which it is by a mile !,.....then come back in 6 months and it will be 6 plus at least.....the board have a damn cheek recommending such a low price, it's taken ages for an offer to come through....only for it to be paltry !.

first of all sp will crash, maybe as low as 300, at which point one should definitely pile in

Followed by a very strong recovery .....now where's my "tardis"...?.(Doctor Who)...

I've taken a risk and jumped back into this.....(gulp !)....at the moment this is a long way down from the bid....if there is a bid 455p...thank you....if not then shareholders think this is worth a lot more which it is of course....so why not...might drop at first but it will go miles higher very shortly after...with patience I might come out with another profit....can't believe I'm back in the Dragon again !.

Do you not feel cynics comment above a better option and wait to hit bottom?