Are they any good..?



currently 150p to buy.

Speculation that Delek will again try to bid for the company

Delek's recent Asset Sales:

17th Feb: Attempting to sell Phoenix Holdings.
19th April: Completion of Sale Republic Companies Inc ($140m USD)
31st July: Raised 1,112,000 NIS = Circa $300m USD
17th August: Sale of Tamin & Karish leases sold to Energan ($148.5m USD) Delek's Share 52.94 = $78.61 USD
17th August: Signing of Agreement Sale of Power Station Ashkalon 200m NIS = circa $53m USD

Delek seems to be off loading assets building up its reserves
Is this the plan to launch a takeover?

A good push up since late yesterday has follow this morning, being the best oil stock since

Sunday Telegraph - Business - by LIAM HALLIGAN
Why I'm sticking with my forecast of oil rising to $60 a barrel
In the absence of a major financial meltdown, oil will end 2016 north of $60 a barrel,” this column stated at the turn of the year. It was a forecasting flourish possibly fuelled by one Christmas brandy too many.

With just four months of 2016 to go, though, I’m sticking to my Yuletide view.

Attempting to predict the oil price is crazy. Yet no decent economist can afford not to. The world economy still revolves around oil – used in everything from transport and electricity generation to the production of plastics, synthetics and so much else. And for all the breathless talk about renewables, and the grim inevitability of growing nuclear dependence, we remain addicted to oil.

As recently as 2005, world crude consumption was just 84.7 million barrels a day. That’s since gone up to 95.1 million daily, a 12pc increase in just 10 years. And that rise came during a decade when global GDP growth was rather sluggish.

Had the world economy not endured the 2008 financial crisis, and subsequent stop-start recovery, oil consumption would have grown even more. But still, for all the expansion of wind and solar, and endless hype about a “post-petroleum world”, oil consumption continues to rise relentlessly – and that won’t change any time soon.

crude oil
The oil price has surged this month, up from around $41 a barrel in early August to almost $52 last week, before falling back slightly.

This 20pc-plus increase puts crude technically into “bull market” territory. This is striking, not least because from mid-June to the end of July, oil was in “a bear market”, having dropped over 20pc. Despite this summer volatility, though, the direction of travel is clear. Oil has been climbing steadily, if not always in a straight line, from its February low of $28 a barrel.

This August rise in oil prices stems from market fundamentals on the one hand, and geopolitical speculation on the other.

Earlier this month, the highly respected International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report suggesting global crude supply will fall short of demand during the third quarter by nearly a million barrels a day.

This projected deficit comes despite the fact that the Opec exporters’ cartel continues to pump like billy-o. Having traditionally restricted supply to keep prices high, Opec has over the last two years been doing the reverse, of course – flooding global markets with oil, lowering prices to squeeze high-cost US shale producers out of existence.

Amidst record production by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE, total Opec output hit an eight-year high in July, up no less than 840,000 barrels a day on the same month in 2015.

This Opec supply surge was more than offset, though, by the dramatic ongoing slump in output from producers outside Opec. Declines in the US, China, Canada and Mexico combined to push non-Opec production down by more than 1.1 million barrels a day compared to July 2015.

Total crude pumped last month, then, within Opec and beyond, was 215,000 barrels down year-on-year. This eye-catching outcome helped to drive the International Energy Agency’s forecast of a significant crude shortfall between July and September – which, in turn, helped to push prices up.

opec
CREDIT: BARBARA GINDL
On top of this technical evidence of a tightening oil market, there are signs Opec may soon come to an output-limiting agreement, putting more upward pressure on prices.

Back in mid-2014, de facto cartel leader Saudi Arabia announced a production hike in the face of falling prices – an aggressive bid to protect Opec’s market share.

Oil subsequently plunged 70pc over 18 months, surely more than the Saudis expected. This dramatic fall, from over $100 to less than $30 a barrel, harmed not just upstart shale and tar-sands producers in the US and Canada as intended, but also Opec members – not least the mighty Desert Kingdom itself.

The International Monetary Fund estimates that low prices cost the big Arab oil exporters almost $350bn (£265bn) last year. Dependent on crude for more than 90pc of its revenue, the Saudi government is now nursing a budget deficit approaching a colossal 15pc of GDP.

Typically the world’s largest crude producer, the Saudis clearly now want higher prices. The trouble will be getting all other Opec members to agree – not least Iran. Then there are the Russians, outside Opec but obviously a major player on international oil markets. Russia typically pumps more than 10 million barrels a day, after all, often outpacing the Saudis.

Unless global markets crash, I say that year of $60-plus oil will be 2017
An informal Opec summit is scheduled a month from now in Algiers. Throughout August, leading Opec members – not least new Saudi oil minister, Khalid al-Falih – have said “price stability will be discussed” in the Algerian capital.

There’s much scepticism a deal can be struck, of course. A similar Opec “showdown” in Doha back in April failed to produce a production-cap agreement. And Opec quota-cheating – with members often pumping beyond agreed limits to garner extra revenue – means the cartel is riddled with distrust.

The key fissure within Opec is that between predominantly Sunni Saudi and overwhelmingly Shia Iran. This ancient Tehran-Riyadh schism has undermined the cartel’s coherence in the past and these days there’s an extra complication. Iran’s oil-export sanctions were lifted by the United Nations only in January.

So the Islamic Republic, despite its Opec membership, has been reluctant to agree to any Saudi-led initiative to limit supply, just at a time when Tehran has been trying to restore Iran’s place as a leading global supplier.

Significantly, Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh last week confirmed he will attend the Algiers meeting in September. Iran’s absence in Doha was, according to the Saudis, the main reason that summit failed. Seven months after export sanctions were lifted, Iran’s production has soared from under three million to over 3.8 million barrels a day, but remains short of its four million pre-sanction level. Having said that, Iranian output has plateaued over the last two months – which has fuelled speculation Tehran might agree to co-ordinated Opec action to limit supply.

Khalid al-Falih
Saudi 's oil minister, Khalid al-Falih CREDIT: HAMAD I MOHAMMED / REUTERS
If there is a deal in Algiers, and it binds – with Opec holding together, and the Russians staying on board – then my end-of year oil prediction, in the absence of a Lehman-style global meltdown, will almost certainly come true.

Such geopolitical stargazing has helped push up oil prices this month. During the first week of August, short crude oil positions on the NYMEX, one of the world’s leading commodity exchanges, were at a 10-year high. A large number of traders, in other words, thought oil was set to fall back towards $30. That view has now been thoroughly trounced, with the resulting “short squeeze” helping to drive this latest 20pc oil price rise.

Aside from speculation and diplomatic wrangling, though, there’s growing evidence of an emerging supply-demand deficit.

Buried in the IEA’s latest report is the significant observation that it expects a further 900,000-barrel reduction in non-Opec output by the end of this year.

This Saudi-driven price war has seen global investment in oil exploration and field development cut by $300bn, some 41pc, since 2014. The “active rig count” – the number of wells being pumped worldwide, is down 37pc.

Before these trends are slowed, let alone reversed, oil will need to spend at least six months, and probably a year, firmly above $60 a barrel, if investors are to be convinced profits can be made, so persuading them to put serious money back into future crude production.

Unless global markets crash, I say that year of $60-plus oil will be 2017.

74p +4.50p

Supper update from the company, production higher, debt down, higher hedge $56 during Q3 than price now....
Third Quarter 2016 Operations Update - 6 October 2016

Ithaca Energy Inc. provides an operations update following the end of the third quarter of the year ("Q3-2016" or the "Quarter"). The Company is scheduled to issue its financial results for the first nine months of the year on 14 November 2016.

Highlights
· 9,550 boepd average production for first nine months of 2016 - ahead of 9,000 boepd guidance
· FPF-1 offshore hook-up and commissioning operations progressing to plan - start-up of the Stella field continues to be anticipated in November 2016
· Significant progress made on installation of the oil export pipeline from the FPF-1 to the Norpipe system
· Continued deleveraging, with net debt at 30 September 2016 reduced to $598 million

Production & Operations
The producing asset portfolio has performed well over the first nine months of the year ("YTD-2016"), with production running ahead of guidance. Average production during the Quarter was approximately 9,900 boepd, resulting in YTD-2016 average production of 9,550 boepd.

It is anticipated that full year base production, excluding any contribution from the start-up of the Stella field during 2016, will be modestly ahead of the 9,000 boepd guidance range. During the final quarter of the year, base production volumes will be reduced compared to the previous quarters as a result of the approximately two week planned maintenance shutdown of the Brent Pipeline System that serves the Company's Northern North Sea fields.

Greater Stella Area Development
Good progress has been made on the final stages of the Stella development programme since the FPF-1 floating production facility set sail from Poland in August 2016. The FPF-1 was safely towed to the field, moored on location and the dynamic risers and umbilical connecting the subsea infrastructure to the vessel installed as planned. Technip is in the process of concluding the remaining subsea commissioning works. At the same time the FPF-1 offshore commissioning programme is on-going, with preparation of the topsides processing and utility systems for the introduction of hydrocarbons underway. The scheduled completion of these activities remains in line with previous guidance, with first hydrocarbons from the Stella field anticipated in November 2016.

Significant progress was also made during the Quarter on the work programme associated with making the switch from tanker loading to oil pipeline exports for the Greater Stella Area in 2017. The 44 kilometre spurline from the FPF-1 to the Norpipe system was successfully installed as planned in September 2016. The key outstanding activities that now remain to be completed are the manufacture and installation of pipeline export pumps on the FPF-1 and the final subsea connections that need undertaking immediately prior to the switchover.

Financials
Hedging
During Q3-2016 approximately 9,900 boepd (47% oil) of commodity hedges were realised at an average price of $56/boe. The volume of production hedged in the final quarter of 2016 remains unchanged, at approximately 8,800 boepd (50% oil) at an average price of $59/boe.

Operating Expenditure
As previously guided, average unit operating expenditure in 2016 for the existing producing asset base is anticipated to be approximately $25/boe. Following the start-up of production from the Stella field this cost is forecast to reduce to approximately $20/boe, reflecting the lower unit operating costs associated with the field.

Net Debt
Net debt at 30 September 2016 reduced to $598 million. The Company has in place total available debt facilities of $730 million, providing in excess of $130 million of funding headroom ahead of planned first hydrocarbons from the Stella field. This funding capacity comprises $300 million unsecured senior notes and $430 million bank debt facilities.

Q3-2016 Financial Results Conference Call
The Company is scheduled to release its Q3-2016 financial results on 14 November 2016.

Ready for a BREAKOUT after yesterday good RNS, is now at the same point as the highest intraday high back in early July.

78p +4p (+5.41%)

The spike is now taken place after moving over the last intraday high sp is well a BREAKOUT

See following post from poster on Canada called the Doug, interesting in tanker parking in of North east England:
Oil & Ithaca

Oil

Opec seem determined to maintain the upward momentum and to bring others into the output cutting fold by November. How successful they are probably won't matter that much medium term. IEA data showed demand and production closely matched in the early part of 2016, Q3 data which at this point is part actual part forecast is expected to come in at nearly 1M b/d shortfall in production and Q4 forecast is for over 1M b/d shortfall, deepening from there.

Local North East of England news last week ran a feature on empty, very definately empty, oil tankers parked up offshore to avoid port costs with skeleton crews, the ships owners stating that there was no work for these tankers - the feature covered this from a local eyesore perspective. Similar tanker parking is happening elsewhere also apparently. Not that 1m b/d or just over 1% under production would have that much impact on tanker usage of itself, but the glut of recent years has meant that tankers have been used for storage at sea - reduction in the global oil stocks, which has little or no correlation with US inventories, is resulting in a reduction in global tanker storage.

So how will this impact the oil price. Medium term this will lead to major oil price increases and record highs probably by 2018. Shorter term things are much more unpredictable but the direction of travel is clear.

Ithaca

All good. On the Canada exchange the key break out is above $1.50, could rapidly move to $3 from there. If we assume mid November production we should see the break out, how quickly we move to $3 will depend on the oil price. Also there is a likely trigger price for a probable Delek bid, probably somewhere between $2 and $3.

Doug

The Oil Man: Ithaca, - By Malcolm Graham-Wood | Fri, 7th October 2016 - 12:56

Ithaca Energy

Ithaca (IAE) continues to deliver the goods and is a worthy member of the bucket list; yesterday it delivered third-quarter figures and an operational update that beat market expectations.

Production in the third quarter was 9,900 barrels per day (b/d) giving an average of 9,550 for the year-to-date, neatly above the 9/- b/d guidance. FPF-1 is all hooked up and first production is expected in November; this is key, it will add 16/- b/d of production and - to use an overused word - will indeed be "transformational" to Ithaca.

That will get better when the pipeline comes into operation next year after the initial export by tanker. The increased revenue next year will dwindle the debt and give the company many opportunities to grow; nearby there are such opportunities, which I expect IAE to take advantage of.

82.50p +4.50 (+5.79%)

A very good start of the day as order book is strong on the bid side 36 v 20, we could see the breakout go higher at this rate
Most of the peers on the sector are down, so augurs well for IAE

from TMF yesterday

should-you-be-buying-these-two-growth-stock/

"Low cost production

Ithaca Energy (LSE: IAE) has been recovering well this year after a tough time in 2015. The shares are up 172% since 1 January this year and show no signs of stopping anytime soon. The recently released Q3 operational update shows that Ithaca is continuing to lower costs and work on asset profitability. The company produced 9,900 boepd (47% liquids) which was ahead of the 9,000 boepd target for the quarter.

The key value lever for Ithaca in the short term is first oil at the Stella field in the North Sea. First oil is expected in November and a rapid ramp up in production should see the company reach an annualised production rate of approximately 16,000 boepd. This should drive the operating cost per barrel below the $20 mark and boost revenue and profits. In August, CEO Les Thomas said “production is running ahead of guidance, operating costs have been further reduced and we have continued deleveraging the business.”

Ithaca has performed very well in the first half of 2016 and in the next few months the much anticipated Stella field will come online. First oil has been delayed multiple times but next year should be transformational for Ithaca. It plans to continue to pay off debt and deleverage the balance sheet. This plan should be good for shareholders as the business equity price should increase if oil stays above the $45 per barrel mark. "

Take it as you like.........

from "Roth1" today 10:25

Takeover valuation
Today 10:25 - In 2012 Ithaca was in talks about an offer for the company. Rumor was that around £2 per share was on the table and was turned down because it undervalued the company. In 2012 the company was producing about 5000 boepd with oil priced at $110. Now oil is down to $52, half what it was in 2012, but in a few weeks time Ithaca will be producing 25,000 boepd, five times what it was in 2012.

That's down to FPF1 and the price of that is $600m debt against about $50m (I think) in 2012. FWIW my own calculations give a net present value for Ithaca of about £600m based on $65 per barrel for Brent, that's roughly £1.60 shareprice.

Any premium for a takeover should take us well over £2 and possibly more.
These valuations of Ithaca take no account of the potential that derives from the production platform. As things stands, current reserves will only employ the platform for 6, maybe 7 years. But, for a relatively small outlay Ithaca could double its reserves and extend FPF1 production proportionately.

Ithaca's last acquisition from Vorlich worked out at a cost of about 50 cents per barrel. Even paying $2 per barrel would only cost $100m to double reserves - the platform is potentially hugely valuable once these acquisitions are made. Any buyer will receive the full benefit of that!

86p +4.75p

The rise lately with oil price rising last night got the stock up with a GAP this morning and then a higher Breakout

82p - 8.375p
after moving well up yesterday, bad news got the stock down today.............

Ithaca Energy Inc. (TSX: IAE, LSE AIM: IAE) ("Ithaca" or the "Company") provides an update on the status of the on-going Stella field commissioning programme and the expected schedule for start-up of production.

Activities on the offshore commissioning programme for the FPF-1 floating production facility are well advanced and preparation for start-up of the Stella field is on-going. During routine inspections, faults on a number of electrical junction boxes on the vessel's processing facilities have been identified and a programme of necessary repairs is underway. All other preparations are on plan. Start-up is now anticipated in early January 2017, upon completion of this additional work.

Les Thomas, Chief Executive Officer, commented:
"The safety and integrity of the facility is paramount and we must ensure that everything is done meticulously in advance of the introduction of hydrocarbons into the facility. Although any delay to start-up at this stage is frustrating, the value of a thorough inspection programme has been proven and we look forward to completion of this work and the imminent start-up of production."

Takeover by Delek announced.

After the recent rise rise and rise, the much expected bid came along
One could say from 20p to 120p in one Year .........


Ithaca Energy's is recommending C$1.95 per share takeover by Delek Group which values the issued share capital of company at C$841m and implied a total enterprise value of approximately US$1.24bn.

Ithaca said the offer provided shareholders with the opportunity to crystallise the value of their holdings in cash and represents a 12% premium to the TSX closing price of C$1.74 per share on 3 February and a 16% and 27% premium to the 30 day and 60 day volume weighted average prices respectively.

Non-executive chairman Brad Hurtubise said: "We are very pleased to announce the Offer, which provides an attractive opportunity for all shareholders to secure a premium cash value for their investment following a sustained period of share price growth and at a favourable point in the company's evolution.

"A special committee of independent directors has fully assessed the Offer, with input from the company's financial advisor and an independent valuator, and believes the offer is fair and in the best interest of the company and its shareholders and unanimously recommends that the shareholders tender their shares to the offer."

I just realised that sometime back I was speculating about the Takeover by - Delek

mentor - 21 Aug 2016 21:33 - 76 of 90 edit this post

Speculation that Delek will again try to bid for the company

Delek's recent Asset Sales:

17th Feb: Attempting to sell Phoenix Holdings.
19th April: Completion of Sale Republic Companies Inc ($140m USD)
31st July: Raised 1,112,000 NIS = Circa $300m USD
17th August: Sale of Tamin & Karish leases sold to Energan ($148.5m USD) Delek's Share 52.94 = $78.61 USD
17th August: Signing of Agreement Sale of Power Station Ashkalon 200m NIS = circa $53m USD

Delek seems to be off loading assets building up its reserves
Is this the plan to launch a takeover?