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Xcite Energy - North Sea Heavy Oil (XEL)     

Proselenes - 22 Oct 2009 11:14

.

cynic - 26 Nov 2010 14:14 - 766 of 3002

i hope you don't run into the same gory end as your compatriots at Agincourt then, for i think that was last time it was flown - by "your" King Louis too!

as for me, i sold a few this morning for a modest profit but still hold more than i did 7/10 days ago ..... i may sell some more later this afternoon, but assuredly not all as i think a positive result is odds-on

ptholden - 26 Nov 2010 14:20 - 767 of 3002

Opened a S/B position here yesterday, awful spread, but then to be expected. Considering switching to CFDs for shares rather than S/Bs which offer DMA, however, commision, interest on long positions and CGT don't really appeal.

cynic - 26 Nov 2010 14:29 - 768 of 3002

you are already paying commission+ via the spread on your s/b ..... CFD trading may depend on your tax position and/or profits ..... i can't remember what the CGT allowance is, but it's at least 6k and may now even be as much as 10k

ptholden - 26 Nov 2010 14:34 - 769 of 3002

True Ricardo, hence the awful spread, think I'll have to dust off my CFD account, compare spreads (not that that is especially relevant with DMA) and work out the maths!

required field - 26 Nov 2010 14:50 - 770 of 3002

Looks like a lot of people in this.....I know that I will take a knock if it does not come right but you have to say it looks very, very promising...

cynic - 26 Nov 2010 14:51 - 771 of 3002

xel is not the best example as the CFD spread is as between MMs, albeit that there are 10 of them .... currently it's 272/274 but it can be as wide as 5/6p or as narrow as 0.5p

Balerboy - 26 Nov 2010 15:11 - 772 of 3002

9 grand cgt last I was told by accountant, joint accounts = 18000

ptholden - 26 Nov 2010 15:32 - 773 of 3002

The beauty of DMA Ricardo, get a buy order filled on the Bid and you're quids in :-) No spread to worry about. Sell it back to the market on the Offer and even more quids in!

cynic - 26 Nov 2010 15:34 - 774 of 3002

apart from MM stocks where you are stuck with their price, on a "proper" stock and dealing on L2, you can set your price and move it as you choose

cynic - 26 Nov 2010 17:04 - 775 of 3002

just being doing my month's figures (true p+l realised!), though there is still one more trading day to go ...... wowee!!! ..... it would have been a really good month without XEL, but with it, positively and mindblowingly spifflicating and still an o'weight position in hand ..... here's hoping it doesn't all end in tears!

very many thanks to whomever convinced me to get into these initially back in March - then just a 25% stake at 47 which i did not add to until May at 67 and 81

cynic - 26 Nov 2010 17:09 - 776 of 3002

Mr P and RF - now there's a surprise - i think I def owe you both a pint or two, or even the share of a bot of krug (or 2)

required field - 27 Nov 2010 10:39 - 777 of 3002

Cheers Cynic.....let's hope that a good flow test is announced soon !....

cynic - 27 Nov 2010 10:51 - 778 of 3002

and i wasn't really joking about owing you a drink .... where are you based?

required field - 27 Nov 2010 21:55 - 779 of 3002

In England.....but have lived abroad......sorry....can't give too much info.....

Proselenes - 28 Nov 2010 01:18 - 780 of 3002

Interesting post from "oilfarmer" over on III :


Re: Upgrade of Contingent Resources to 2P Reserves

PLUS the Upgrade of Prospective Resources to Contingent Resources

The Original Feb2009 RPS CPR showed an Upside Contingent Resource of 166MMbbls for Bentley Field alone – see below!!

This specifically EXCLUDED East Bentley [referred to as Prospect A] AND the West Jurassic [referred to as LeadB] and it also Excluded the West Dornoch AND the South East Jurassic.

THEN later in 2009 - XEL declared that 3D Seismic implied the Bentley Field [Excl. East Bentley &c..] to be 200MMbbls – see below.

Now with 9/3b-6 the East Bentley [Lead A] has come into play as an "Upside structure"

Therefore 70MMbbls [the E/B Upside] I believe should be ADDed to the previous 200MMbbls!!

Then there remain to be accounted for:-

1. The West Jurassic [MMbbls tba]
2. The South East Jurassic [Oil Found in top 15ft - MMbbls tba]
3. The West Dornoch [MMbbls tba]
4. The East Bentley Gas Cap – if it Exists – to reduce OPEX by 5%

I therefore suggest the Upgraded Reserves [2P??] Figures for Bentley AND East Bentley will be declared at 270MMbbls.

This leaves W.Dornoch; WJurassic; and S/E Jurassic to be Declared as Prospective Resources. The East Bentley Gas Cap has also to be declared intact and commercially viable.

I have tracked the Build Up of these Resources from the RPS 2007 Resources Report to see how they have been - accounted for / not accounted for - in order to see where Reserves/Resources are going to end up!!

I suspect Next CPR will show 2p of 270MMbbls from Bentley AND East Bentley Combined

With Prospective Resources - from the other 3 Prospects [WD; WJ; and S/E Jurassic], being upgraded and declared as ADDITIONAL Contingent Resources.

Resources/Seismic LINKS below:-


1. RPS Energy 2007 Resources Report

http://www.xcite-energy.com/docs/XEL_RPS_NI51-101.pdf

2. RPS Energy February 2009 (CPR) - Competent Person’s Report

http://www.xcite-energy.com/docs/CPR09_release.pdf

3. Results of 3D Seismic

http://www.xcite-energy.com/news/XEL%203D%20Update%20v5%20Jun09%20clean.pdf


GLA/IMOHO/DYOR - Oilf.

cynic - 28 Nov 2010 07:43 - 781 of 3002

no doubt the above will be translated into english at some point

however, as far as i understand things, the Bentley field has pretty much been determined as as very large ....... BUT because it is unsexy heavy oil, which inter alia requires quite significant doses of "viagra" early in its life to persuade it to flow, the key question for immediate answering is, "What is the flowrate like without this stimulation"

ptholden - 28 Nov 2010 10:27 - 782 of 3002

Ricardo, there is quite a lot of significant background information available in various research notes, this is an extract from Edisons (Oct 10). Naturally it doesn't answer the question of 'how will it flow?', but does give a flavour of the challenges.


The only well to be successfully tested to date in Bentley is 9/3b-5, drilled by Xcite in December 2007. The test was carried out in January 2008 and designed to recover oil to surface to prove fluid characteristics. The test string contained an electrical submersible pump (ESP), which was necessary as the viscous oil was not able to flow naturally. Stable flow rates were not achieved during the test, curtailed due to bad weather, but an average flow rate 109bopd was achieved, with a range of circa 100-250bopd.

Subsequent test data analysis by Xcite and Schlumberger showed that the well had a high skin (a measure of formation damage in the well). If the well is modelled for no damage and a full pay zone perforation, a corrected flow rate from the well would be 647bopd. (Note that this flow rate is for a vertical well. The CPR estimates that a rate of around 3,700bopd could be achievable for a horizontal well.) Comparison with the analogue field, Bressay, is also important. The stable flow rate achieved from Bressay 3/28a-2 well was over 3,200bopd from a 140 ft vertical section with similar oil. Xcite requires 1,200bopd from its 500m horizontal #6 well to prove the Bentley downside commerciality in the CPR, with 1,800bopd for base case and 2,400bopd for the upside case. Success with the #6 well will be measured in terms of both proving actual flow rate (as a function of the available well) as well as the ability to control the flow of oil to the surface.

cynic - 28 Nov 2010 14:08 - 783 of 3002

thanks Peter .... F cold playing joke golf today; glad i'm off to sunnier climes for a week ..... looks a tricky call on XEL flowtest and certainly beyond my little brain's capability of calculating

cynic - 28 Nov 2010 14:08 - 784 of 3002

thanks Peter .... F cold playing joke golf today; glad i'm off to sunnier climes for a week ..... looks a tricky call on XEL flowtest and certainly beyond my little brain's capability of calculating

Proselenes - 29 Nov 2010 08:09 - 785 of 3002

Strong start, might we get much nearer 300p today ?
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