I wonder if any gamblers noticed my post 334 on the GMC thread yesterday.
It looks as though bottom fishing can sometimes pay off.

Even on a miserable day everywhere else, ELA is still climbing.
There is chatter on the other side of it being tipped in a US tip sheet.

I bought 500 of these at 3.47 euros last april, there was never a chance of tysabri not coming back it was ust a question of when (having taken the drug myself). The latest webcasts all but announce its return. Pharmacutical equities seem to have a life of their own. Last night their trading in NY set new 52 week high. Think I should be selling around the 24 euro mark in march time, although they do have promising work for altsheimers disease, so perhaps i should hang on to them even after a tysabri relaunch? Decisions decisions!

not 52 week high meant year sorry

And today some really smart NY analyst says he doesnt think tysabri will be perscribed by doctors very widely! causing mass panic with elan shares, and they drop 1.5 euros! I mean does this guy know anything about MS? obviously not otherwise he would know Tysabri is at least twice as effective against relapses than any other therepy out there not only that but it also promotes the brain to heal itself meaning a reversal of disability, sounds like a wonder drug? Well I for one know that to be true and in the nightmare world of brain demylination I know the MS community would all gladly take this drug, rather than suffer a slow degeneration of every human function.

So its not a question of wether the docs will perscribe this therepy, but just how fast the patients suffering can get it. take it from me buy this stock, it may take a while to prove the critics wrong but when the profits are announced in a few months time you will probally wonder why you never invested in Elan when they were so cheap.

Crippy: Thanks for your posts. It's amazing that you have experience of Tysabri as I didn't think it had been trialled over here, and my own reading on its value suppports what you have to say. The dip sets back the recovery only by about two weeks as far I can see and I think offers an opportunity to top up. If only I had some spare funds. Meanwhile there is chatter on the other side about Elan's partnership with Wyeth to develop two drugs for Alzheimers, which they say could be very, very big.

Yes squidd i was on the European mono therepy trial here for a couple of years. You could say i am living proof of why the drug is so good. According to the doctors eho were overseeing the trial the problems the drug encountered only occured when used in conjunction with other immunosuppressants, because on its own it is ultra effecient at doing its job. So when combined with other drugs of a similar nature it is to heavy a load for some peoples immune systems to deal with. Hence the only deaths occurred when the drug was being prescribed wrongly. As I am sure you are aware, american doctors are essentially drugs sales people for the various pharma companies, and when a patient asks for a drug they generally get it. With Tysabri it was a shame because 2 people died because they suppressed their immune systems too much, I supose this is a testemant too Tysabris effectiveness, and also shows how poor other MS therepys are because doctors were used to perscribing multiple therepies before because the drugs previously available didnt work very well.

Interesting to hear about the Alzheimers drug, think I may have to scrape together some pennies to up my stake in elan me thinks.

ELA firmly back on the recovery trail after reporting results ahead of market expectations on 31st Jan - even without any contribution from Tysabri, for which they are planning a high profile relaunch in the US, hopefully in the next couple of months. My reading of the newsflow is that the market has yet to price in the likely impact of the new Altzheimer treatments.

This is to advise that I have now SOLD my holding in ELA, giving me, and I hope others on this BB, really excellent gains. I now think that ELA is nearing the end of its recovery phase and faces the hard graft of selling their wares in a competive market: I'm not too certain about the financial well being of the company and think they may struggle. So I won't be posting any more here, but having said that, ELA has in the past proved to be an accident-prone company and may well offer further opportunies for recovery.
Meanwhile, I'm focussing on other recovery/growth stocks, including CW, IOT, ULT, PMK, TAG.
sd.

Great news this evening from the US regarding Elans drug Tysabri, the drug previously withdrawn almost a year ago due to saftey issues. The FDA announced that patients previously recieving the drug in the trials being conducted to evaluate the drugs effectiveness and saftey, are allowed to restart their dosing with the drug. the FDA will rule in late march wether to allow the drug to start being marketed again in America.

The restarting of trials i think can be taken as a very positive step on the path to relicencing Tysabri for sale again, and that the european licence for the drug is only a short period of time away!

I dont know exactly what price I am aming to sell my holdings in this share but perhaps between 18 and 20 euros is a realistic target. i am banking on the fact that even in its withdrawal and saftey concerns,it still remains the most effective therepy currently available for what is a chronic illness, and as such meets an important clinical need. I am aware that the MS community has been queing up for this treatnment dispite its problems. As a new class of drug this is the first of a few therepys using this compound as their base and has proved to be side effect free when used as a monotherepy.

elan PLC closed tonight in new york @ $14.54 the news only just circulating at time of market close. Expect tommorow to see big gains in London for this share. I knew I should have topped up already! Oh well I will enjoy the ride fingers crossed :)

here is a link for the reuters news story:

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=governmentFilingsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060215:MTFH32479_2006-02-15_18-33-47_N15246655:1

two rather larger than normal sell trades last thing before colse today, interesting. Still hopefull on an FDA approval for relaunch which could see a possible doubling of value of this stock. Personally waiting for the call from consultant confirming the trial is restarting....roll on the happy days!

It all becomes clear now forbes today said that its reasearch from the neurology community indicated 59% of doctors would be unwilling to prescribe Tysabri except as a therepy of last choice given the potential for the PML side effect. Projecting only 10% of MS patients would be given the drug. Fair enough, but given the amazing benefits to be had from the drug, and the fact it is twice as effective as any other therepy, I think the paying american ms community would take their chances, given the alternative of a slow degeneration of brain functions. Plus PML was only detected in two MS patients who were on a dual therepy ( Tysabri taken in conjunction with other immunosuppresents ) and never when tysabri was being used as a monotherepy. So instead of selling tomorrow morning I shall be sticking with ELA and waiting for the FDA decision which is only a few days away (they meet on the 7th or 8th of March and report later in the month) I may ironically enough top up as the price may drop further, and no I have not lost all my sanity, I simply believe in the prouct and have 3+ years experience of it.

Just wish I had more experience of the crazy world of stock market investment, then perhaps I would have seen this coming. Oh the pharma world is a thrilling ride! Then again I could simply bet on the dogs!

and so we come down to it, a year of waiting is nearly over, tuesday and wednesday see the FDA in conference to review Tysabri. They will decide the outcome of a drug that holds much potential, and some think also is the future of elan in the short term. A percentage of the medical community seem to be indicating they expect to see the return of Tysabri to the market but with restrictions over its use.

Market analysts see this company and its short term future as so dependenent on the drugs re-emergence that last week saw the stocks value fall several percent with various stories circulating about the likelyhood of the FDA saying yes or no to relisencing of tysabri.

Obviously I have a personal interest in its future and hope that when, as is expected, Elan reports on its future through its webcast from the Cowan & Co health care conference, the news is good. I expect the FDA will give a green light to the relaunch of the drug, without as many restrictions as might be expected. I will tell you why, because its is at least 60% more effective than any other therepy currently available for MS. It fullfills a huge unmet clinical need and as such will be given the go ahead.

also the unfortunate illness PML was only reported in those who took Tysabri in conjunction with other immunosuppresscents, so I predict as a monotherepy it will be relicensed with the warning not to be used with other immuno therepys. So the sales could still be much more significant than some pesimists anticipate. As a monotherepy it is a great advance on anything currently available and I think the MS community will be clamouring for it to be made available, hence sales will be significant. The problem is there are to many underinformed analysts and writers who comment without fully researching their facts, hence the rollercoaster ride this share price has been enduring over the past few weeks.

there is also hope for the future without even Tysabri, Elans current research has in the phase three clinical trial their Altsheimers drug, inspiringly named, AAB 001 which if you speak to any neurologist tehy will tell you of its massive potential and that it is the first drug of its kind to be trialed and there is no other therepy which has any effect on this condition. so when and if it is approved it will be on its own in the field as an effective therepy against this condition, and that really does mean billions and billions in sales....in the mean time roll on wednesday....

Thanks for that Crippy. I'm holding on, and awaiting the outcome this week, I think it's more likely to be positive than negative.

Thats the spirit Frampton! Found an interseting website extoling the virtues of tysabri:

http://www.mspatientsforchoice.org/

So as you can see its not just me ranting on about how great Tysabri is :)

Noted a large end of day trade on the london market couldnt find out if it was a buy or a sell sorry. about 191,000 in total!

Interesting website Crippy.Last chance to buy or sell, only a few more hours before we are locked in awaiting news....

topped up a bit yesterday @ 10.63 euros seems to be a last rush of buys today and hence price up to 11.47 euros as i write. now as you say frampton its a waiting game....

some latest news from bloomberg....posted 40 mins ago just about sums up the first day in the FDA review....

Biogen, Elan Propose Measures to Control Tysabri Risk (Update4)
March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Biogen Idec Inc. and Elan Corp., seeking to resume U.S. sales of their multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri, proposed to restrict the treatment's use to reduce the risk patients will contract a rare, fatal brain disease.

The drugmakers told a panel of advisers to the Food and Drug Administration that they will monitor Tysabri's use by having the drug administered only in registered centers. Patients would be required to sign a form confirming they understand Tysabri's risks, and doctors would be instructed to suspend treatment if patients show signs of developing the brain infection.

The companies, whose shares were halted today as they have been reacting to Tysabri news for months, told the panel the drug should be made available because it is better than existing therapies for the neurological disease that affects 400,000 Americans. The committee must weigh people's rights to an effective treatment that has severe side effects against the FDA's responsibility to protect the public.

``Although data is limited, we seek to limit death and disability if PML occurs,'' said Carmen Bozic, Biogen's vice president for drug safety and risk management, at a meeting in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

The committee of doctors and scientists heard demands from patients today requesting the drug and will vote tomorrow on whether the FDA should allow Tysabri sales to resume. If the drug gets a favorable review and returns to the market, it will be only the second time a company has been allowed to bring a back a suspended medicine.

FDA, Companies Collaborate

GlaxoSmithKline Plc's Lotronex, the first drug for irritable bowel syndrome, was resurrected in June 2002 after spending 19 months off the market when it was linked to patient deaths. Lotronex won back a limited approval at a lower dose and the FDA set up restrictions for its use.

The FDA has been working daily with Biogen and Elan to craft a monitoring plan that would help control Tysabri's risks, agency officials said today in a conference call. The plan, which would include distribution controls, restrictions on prescribing and patient tracking, would be aimed at educating patients and limiting use to those who are aware of the potential dangers.

``We've had ongoing discussions with the company in an attempt to resolve some issues so that, pending tomorrow's committee recommendation, we can move forward as fast as possible,'' said Russell Katz, director of the FDA's division of neurology drug products, in a press conference. The committee will be asked to weigh in on some of the restrictions, he said.

Shares React

Tysabri was suspended a year ago after it was linked to two fatal cases of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, a brain infection known as PML that is caused by a virus. Study results suggested Tysabri is twice as effective as other MS treatments. At the same time, people taking it face a 1 in 1,000 risk of PML, according to the National Institutes of Health.

Shares of Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Biogen rose 1 cent to $45.51 yesterday in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading. Dublin-based Elan gained 70 cents, or 6.6 percent, to 11.30 euros before the trading suspension at 1:03 p.m. in Dublin. Both stocks fell last week after researchers said Tysabri can deplete immune- system cells as much as HIV.

On Feb. 28, 2005, the day the drug was suspended, the companies' shares plummeted, wiping out $17.8 billion in combined market value. Elan has gained almost two-thirds and Biogen rose as much as a third since October as no new cases of PML surfaced and management laid plans to press for a resumption of sales.

At stake for the companies is the future of what was once one of their most promising drugs. Tysabri had been seen as the best hope in a decade for the world's 2.5 million MS patients, with potential annual sales of $3 billion.

Effects of MS

MS robs people of muscle coordination and balance, sometimes leading to damaged vision and paralysis. In severe MS, people have permanent symptoms, including partial or complete paralysis. The disease is caused when the body's immune system attacks myelin, the coating on nerve fibers.

If Tysabri is cleared to go back on the market, safety concerns may still limit sales to less than $200 million in 2008, said Chris Raymond, an analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co. in Chicago, in an interview yesterday. Rodman & Renshaw analyst Michael King in New York said U.S. demand may reach $700 million in 2010.

`Less Promising'

``The risk associated with Tysabri goes beyond just whether or not this drug will be approved,'' Raymond said today in an interview. ``Most folks do believe it will be approved and put back on the market. But I think the drug's commercial outlook is a lot less promising than it was before the risk of PML cases came up last year.''

U.S. regulators on Feb. 15 cleared Biogen and Elan to resume testing Tysabri in patients for the first time since the drug was suspended, raising hopes the advisory committee may recommend resumption of sales. The FDA is to make its decision by the end of March.

Tysabri's prescribing information should include the FDA's strictest warning, outlined in a black box, that the drug is associated with an increased risk of PML, Biogen said today. Biogen would implement strict distribution controls, the company told the panel.

Recommended Limits

Biogen and Elan recommend certain limitations, including barring the therapy for patients with impaired immune systems and not giving Tysabri in combination with other MS therapies, Burt Adelman, the Biogen executive vice president for medical research, told the committee today. Patients in two of the PML cases were taking Tysabri in combination with Biogen's Avonex, an older MS drug.

PML occurs when an infection called the JC virus, named with the initials of the first person diagnosed with it, evades the body's immune defenses and penetrates the central nervous system. Tysabri, an antibody-based medicine, was designed to treat MS by suppressing immune cells. Researchers theorize that the drug may subdue defenses meant to keep the JC virus out of the brain.

FDA reviewers raised concerns about other side effects in Tysabri patients, including viral meningitis, respiratory infections and herpes central nervous system infections. About 6 percent of Tysabri patients developed antibodies against the drug, which can decrease its effectiveness.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Angela Zimm in Gaithersburg, Maryland, at azimm@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: March 7, 2006 18:51 EST

Great News the FDA advisory commity have voted 7 to 5 in favor of returning Tysabri to the marketas a first line therepy and 12 to 0 in favor of the drug returning!